Presidential change unlikely in 1998: Arif

Presidential change unlikely in 1998: Arif

SEMARANG (JP): Noted sociologist Arief Budiman jumped onto the
bandwagon of scholars who doubt if presidential succession will
take place in 1998.

Arief said here yesterday that there's only a slight chance
that a change in national leadership could occur given the fact
that most of the country's institutions operate to preserve the
status quo.

"If we compare it to a game of chess, there's no 'king'
here...there's no way the existing government would lose," he
told reporters.

However, he said there could always be a surprise in store.
"Let's not be too hasty and call it an impossibility. I think
there's a 50 percent chance that succession could take place," he
said.

He pointed out several factors which could lead to a new
president, including growing dissatisfaction in some layers of
society and an apparent rift in the political elite.

"Dissatisfaction with many things such as monopolies could
lead to political surprises," he said, adding that sometimes
"succession just happens".

"It's rather difficult to predict with certainty because we
lack surveys and polls. People cannot speak without fear.

"We don't know what's going to happen but this isn't unusual
in developing countries," he said.

Arief said he disagreed with political observer Afan Gaffar,
who said recently in Australia that there wouldn't be a
presidential election in 1998. "I say there's a 50-50 chance," he
stressed.

The 1,000-seat People's Consultative Assembly will meet in
1998 to elect a new national president. A number of observers,
including R. William Liddle at Ohio State University in the
United States, have suggested that President Soeharto, already
one of the world's longest serving leaders, is likely to run for
a seventh term as president.

Public discussion of succession has intensified and is usually
marked by conflicting views.

Respected political observer Amien Rais spearheads a group
that wants more discussion to familiarize the public, which has
only had one other leader in 50 years of independence, with the
idea of succession. Detractors say the group's discussions are an
attempt to antagonize Soeharto and force him to step down.

Poet and columnist Emha Ainun Nadjib said yesterday that
compared to the independence campaign of 1945 and to the time
around 1965 when Indonesia experienced great political upheaval,
it is more difficult now to find the right leader.

"I believe the future presidential candidate will be someone
who is 'neutral' and accepted by every group in this diverse
nation," he said. (har/swe)