Presidential change unlikely in 1998: Arif

SEMARANG (JP): Noted sociologist Arief Budiman jumped onto the bandwagon of scholars who doubt if presidential succession will take place in 1998.

Arief said here yesterday that there's only a slight chance that a change in national leadership could occur given the fact that most of the country's institutions operate to preserve the status quo.

"If we compare it to a game of chess, there's no 'king' here...there's no way the existing government would lose," he told reporters.

However, he said there could always be a surprise in store. "Let's not be too hasty and call it an impossibility. I think there's a 50 percent chance that succession could take place," he said.

He pointed out several factors which could lead to a new president, including growing dissatisfaction in some layers of society and an apparent rift in the political elite.

"Dissatisfaction with many things such as monopolies could lead to political surprises," he said, adding that sometimes "succession just happens".

"It's rather difficult to predict with certainty because we lack surveys and polls. People cannot speak without fear.

"We don't know what's going to happen but this isn't unusual in developing countries," he said.

Arief said he disagreed with political observer Afan Gaffar, who said recently in Australia that there wouldn't be a presidential election in 1998. "I say there's a 50-50 chance," he stressed.

The 1,000-seat People's Consultative Assembly will meet in 1998 to elect a new national president. A number of observers, including R. William Liddle at Ohio State University in the United States, have suggested that President Soeharto, already one of the world's longest serving leaders, is likely to run for a seventh term as president.

Public discussion of succession has intensified and is usually marked by conflicting views.

Respected political observer Amien Rais spearheads a group that wants more discussion to familiarize the public, which has only had one other leader in 50 years of independence, with the idea of succession. Detractors say the group's discussions are an attempt to antagonize Soeharto and force him to step down.

Poet and columnist Emha Ainun Nadjib said yesterday that compared to the independence campaign of 1945 and to the time around 1965 when Indonesia experienced great political upheaval, it is more difficult now to find the right leader.

"I believe the future presidential candidate will be someone who is 'neutral' and accepted by every group in this diverse nation," he said. (har/swe)