President Bush in Beijing
United States President George W. Bush arrives in Beijing today at a moment when apparently conflicting attitudes and assessments prevail in the Chinese capital. President Jiang Zemin, according to Willy Wo Lap Lam, the China specialist for CNN, is keen to make it a successful visit. The Chinese president apparently told his aides that "if necessary we can make concessions to America for 20 more years." He also referred to Deng Xiaoping, the pioneer modernizer of China who once stated that "good ties with America are essential to China's economic development in the first decades of the new century." But apparently Jiang also warned his aides that China should always be on its guard against American "hegemony and unilateralism."
President Jiang Zemin and his associates are obviously keen to stabilize bilateral ties during the 48-hour visit of the American president in Beijing. They would like to sketch out the common goals for the 21st century, discuss Taiwan and the fight against terrorism. Beijing is now realistic enough to recognize that too much romanticism prevailed in the days of president Bill Clinton, when he and President Jiang Zemin labeled the bilateral relationship between their two countries a "constructive strategic partnership."
Beijing will apparently suggest during the Bush visit that those ties should be referred to as a "constructive, cooperative relationship." That was the term used by China's foreign minister Tang Jiaxuan in a newspaper interview in Hong Kong. However, it seems that some skepticism prevails in Beijing with regard to President George W. Bush's statement that he intends to maintain a "positive, frank and sincere" relationship with China.
Several newspapers and America specialists in Beijing doubt Washington's sincerity, especially following the occurrence of a number of recent incidents, such as the arrest of 50-odd Falungong demonstrators in Tiananmen Square, statements relating to Taiwan that the delivery of four guided missile-equipped destroyers will be completed early next year, and the excessive attention paid by U.S. officials to Vice President Hu Jintao. The latter will probably succeed President Jiang Zemin as the party's secretary-general at the 16th Communist Party Congress this autumn.
Our guess is that both sides will work out whatever differences exist that affect their bilateral relationship. The symmetry of interests that binds China and the U.S. stands out so clearly that this mini-summit and the follow-up diplomacy will surely be aimed at ensuring a stable relationship.
The U.S. of course is keen, now that China has entered the World Trade Organization (WTO), that American corporations can exploit China's potential market without being hampered by excessive barriers. While China, by playing the antiterrorism card, will make sure that Washington's attention to Taiwan does not exceed the limits that can be tolerated by Beijing while calculating that time and economic factors will eventually settle this issue.
Of course it is in the interests of the countries of Southeast Asia that the China-U.S. relationship remains stable. However, without a comprehensive policy on Washington's part to assist these countries ensure sustained growth, the discrepancies that will exist between China's dominant economy and the sluggish performance in the Southeast Asian region could eventually also become a source of friction and tension in this region where strategic international sea lanes are located.