Preparations for another tsunami lacking

Preparations for another tsunami lacking

Trevor Page, Jakarta

We can't prevent natural phenomena like earthquakes or
tsunamis. But we can reduce their effects through early-warning
and disaster preparedness. Through better planning we can reduce
the loss of life and the misery that always follows for the
survivors of natural disasters. This is what the Indonesian
government and the United Nations system are now engaged with in
the province of West Sumatra.

Last Boxing Day, an estimated 131,000 people were killed by an
earthquake measuring 9 on the Richter scale and tsunami that
devastated the coastline of the province of Aceh. Since then, at
least half a million survivors have been living off assistance
from the international community.

Last month, a leading Icelandic geophysicist, Freysteinn
Sigmundsson, warned UN agency representatives in Indonesia that
the alarming seismic events that have occurred regularly since
the December 26, 2004 earthquake and tsunami were by no means
over. Recent seismic activity, it was thought, had piled
dangerous levels of stress onto a section of the Sunda Trench off
the west coast of Sumatra. The magnitude 8.7 earthquake on March
28, 2005 that rocked the island of Nias in North Sumatra claimed
almost 1,000 lives and left most of the concrete buildings and
infrastructure in ruins. Earthquakes or aftershocks have occurred
almost daily since then.

Earlier this month a team of seismologists at the University
of Ulster in Northern Ireland, led by Prof. John McCloskey,
warned of the danger of a major earthquake and tsunami off the
coast of West Sumatra. This same group of scientists predicted
the Nias earthquake almost two weeks before it occurred.

UN and Indonesian scientists are worried that a great undersea
earthquake and tsunami could occur off the coast of West Sumatra
at any time. Disaster preparedness plans have been developed for
Padang, the provincial capital, and the major towns. But these
are incomplete and as one travels along the coast to the
extremities of the province, the degree of preparedness drops off
dramatically.

The public fears that their lives and property are at risk and
each time the earth trembles there is confusion and panic.
Worried about a tsunami, people in many areas have taken to
spending the night in tents or makeshift shelters on higher
ground.

Padang has a population of some 900,000 people. Its mayor,
Fauzi Bahar, who is responsible for disaster preparedness for the
province, estimates that 600,000 of Padang's population are at
risk. Evacuation areas in the hills surrounding the city have
been identified and sites suitable for camps have been selected.
But land leveling and site preparation has not been done. Nor
have evacuation routes been cut through the densely- forested
hillsides. Thirty-one buildings, including the university, have
been identified as being earthquake-safe and tall enough for
people to take refuge in the event of a tsunami. But it is
estimated that these buildings can only accommodate 30,000
people.

Earthquake and tsunami evacuation drills have been instituted
at some schools in Padang. As soon as an earthquake alarm is
sounded children get under their desks to shield themselves from
falling masonry. At another signal, the children run out of their
classroom to open ground holding their schoolbooks or backpacks
over their heads for protection. Upon the warning signal for a
tsunami, children run to designated high-rise buildings to save
themselves from what could be an oncoming wall of water.

But at Air Bangis, the northern-most town on the coast of West
Sumatra, it's a different story. This small fishing port has a
population of 18,000 people. Five points have been selected as
evacuation sites in the hills one kilometer away from the town.
But evacuation routes have not been cleared and no attempt has
been made to level the ground or prepare it for campsites.

A site has been selected for a soup kitchen but a source of
safe drinking water has yet to be found. The authorities know
what needs to be done but say they have no funds for disaster
preparedness. They hope that some of the money promised by the
international community for disaster relief can be used for
disaster preparedness.

Around the world, the public in many countries immediately
contributed unprecedented amounts of cash to help tsunami
survivors as they watched their plight unfolding on TV. The
concern and generosity of the public obliged the governments of
donor countries, including Canada, to follow suit. Relief
supplies of food and medicines were delivered promptly and a
second wave of mass-mortality from starvation and disease was
averted. But little has yet been achieved on the early warning or
disaster preparedness front.

At a meeting of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization in Mauritius, in April, it was agreed that more work
was needed on national tsunami warning systems before an Indian
Ocean early warning system could be established. Nevertheless,
UNESCO expects that a blueprint for the system will be adopted
soon and that the system itself will be operational by June 2006.

Natural disasters are increasing in terms of frequency,
complexity, scope and destructive capacity. Over the past two
decades, earthquakes, windstorms, tsunamis, floods, landslides,
volcanic eruptions and wildfires have killed millions of people
and resulted in enormous damages. Poor and developing countries
suffer the greatest losses.

In Indonesia, the World Food Program, along with the
government's Disaster Preparedness and Management Board
(BAKORNAS), has taken the lead on a disaster preparedness plan
for West Sumatra. When implemented, an effective contingency plan
could make the difference between life and death for hundreds of
thousands of Indonesians. Foreign aid programs should treat
disaster preparedness as a part of disaster management. It would
be a wise use of taxpayer's money.

The writer is a former director of Emergencies of the United
Nations World Food Program. He worked as a consultant for WFP in
tsunami-struck Indonesia from April to June 2005. The views
expressed here are his own and do not necessarily represent those
of the United Nations.