Preparations for another tsunami lacking

Trevor Page, Jakarta

We can't prevent natural phenomena like earthquakes or tsunamis. But we can reduce their effects through early-warning and disaster preparedness. Through better planning we can reduce the loss of life and the misery that always follows for the survivors of natural disasters. This is what the Indonesian government and the United Nations system are now engaged with in the province of West Sumatra.

Last Boxing Day, an estimated 131,000 people were killed by an earthquake measuring 9 on the Richter scale and tsunami that devastated the coastline of the province of Aceh. Since then, at least half a million survivors have been living off assistance from the international community.

Last month, a leading Icelandic geophysicist, Freysteinn Sigmundsson, warned UN agency representatives in Indonesia that the alarming seismic events that have occurred regularly since the December 26, 2004 earthquake and tsunami were by no means over. Recent seismic activity, it was thought, had piled dangerous levels of stress onto a section of the Sunda Trench off the west coast of Sumatra. The magnitude 8.7 earthquake on March 28, 2005 that rocked the island of Nias in North Sumatra claimed almost 1,000 lives and left most of the concrete buildings and infrastructure in ruins. Earthquakes or aftershocks have occurred almost daily since then.

Earlier this month a team of seismologists at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland, led by Prof. John McCloskey, warned of the danger of a major earthquake and tsunami off the coast of West Sumatra. This same group of scientists predicted the Nias earthquake almost two weeks before it occurred.

UN and Indonesian scientists are worried that a great undersea earthquake and tsunami could occur off the coast of West Sumatra at any time. Disaster preparedness plans have been developed for Padang, the provincial capital, and the major towns. But these are incomplete and as one travels along the coast to the extremities of the province, the degree of preparedness drops off dramatically.

The public fears that their lives and property are at risk and each time the earth trembles there is confusion and panic. Worried about a tsunami, people in many areas have taken to spending the night in tents or makeshift shelters on higher ground.

Padang has a population of some 900,000 people. Its mayor, Fauzi Bahar, who is responsible for disaster preparedness for the province, estimates that 600,000 of Padang's population are at risk. Evacuation areas in the hills surrounding the city have been identified and sites suitable for camps have been selected. But land leveling and site preparation has not been done. Nor have evacuation routes been cut through the densely- forested hillsides. Thirty-one buildings, including the university, have been identified as being earthquake-safe and tall enough for people to take refuge in the event of a tsunami. But it is estimated that these buildings can only accommodate 30,000 people.

Earthquake and tsunami evacuation drills have been instituted at some schools in Padang. As soon as an earthquake alarm is sounded children get under their desks to shield themselves from falling masonry. At another signal, the children run out of their classroom to open ground holding their schoolbooks or backpacks over their heads for protection. Upon the warning signal for a tsunami, children run to designated high-rise buildings to save themselves from what could be an oncoming wall of water.

But at Air Bangis, the northern-most town on the coast of West Sumatra, it's a different story. This small fishing port has a population of 18,000 people. Five points have been selected as evacuation sites in the hills one kilometer away from the town. But evacuation routes have not been cleared and no attempt has been made to level the ground or prepare it for campsites.

A site has been selected for a soup kitchen but a source of safe drinking water has yet to be found. The authorities know what needs to be done but say they have no funds for disaster preparedness. They hope that some of the money promised by the international community for disaster relief can be used for disaster preparedness.

Around the world, the public in many countries immediately contributed unprecedented amounts of cash to help tsunami survivors as they watched their plight unfolding on TV. The concern and generosity of the public obliged the governments of donor countries, including Canada, to follow suit. Relief supplies of food and medicines were delivered promptly and a second wave of mass-mortality from starvation and disease was averted. But little has yet been achieved on the early warning or disaster preparedness front.

At a meeting of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization in Mauritius, in April, it was agreed that more work was needed on national tsunami warning systems before an Indian Ocean early warning system could be established. Nevertheless, UNESCO expects that a blueprint for the system will be adopted soon and that the system itself will be operational by June 2006.

Natural disasters are increasing in terms of frequency, complexity, scope and destructive capacity. Over the past two decades, earthquakes, windstorms, tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires have killed millions of people and resulted in enormous damages. Poor and developing countries suffer the greatest losses.

In Indonesia, the World Food Program, along with the government's Disaster Preparedness and Management Board (BAKORNAS), has taken the lead on a disaster preparedness plan for West Sumatra. When implemented, an effective contingency plan could make the difference between life and death for hundreds of thousands of Indonesians. Foreign aid programs should treat disaster preparedness as a part of disaster management. It would be a wise use of taxpayer's money.

The writer is a former director of Emergencies of the United Nations World Food Program. He worked as a consultant for WFP in tsunami-struck Indonesia from April to June 2005. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations.