Power struggle looming in China

Power struggle looming in China

By Rizal Sukma

JAKARTA (JP): When China's paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping,
died in February this year, many analysts speculated that China
would face the problem of succession.

Even though Deng had already appointed China's Communist Party
(CCP) Secretary-General and President Jiang Zemin as his heir,
many believed that this crucial issue would not be easily solved.

For a few months after Deng's death, however, China's
leadership in Beijing managed to convey the impression to the
outside world that such speculation was fanciful.

On the surface, it seemed that things were going as smoothly
as planned. Jiang even managed to display his supreme grip on
power, despite his credentials as the chosen successor, when
leaders of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) pledged to give
their military loyalty to "the third generation leadership with
Jiang Zemin at the core".

However, recent developments in China's domestic political
scene suggest otherwise.

As the 15th Congress of the CCP approaches, scheduled to take
place in the coming Autumn, it has become clearer that a power
struggle among Chinese leaders is looming.

It began with the publication of the "10,000 characters" in
May, an attack by leftists, on a number of issues often closely
associated with Jiang's platform of reform. The document, in the
main, warned of the danger that could be brought by
"westernization", "bourgeois liberalization" and "privatization"
to China's socialist system.

More directly, the letter accused provincial leaders, senior
party cadres, state official and intellectuals of promoting
"bourgeois liberalization."

Indeed, the leftists have been trying to highlight what they
see as the destruction of state control over production and the
selling out of socialism.

Signs of an imminent power struggle became even more evident
when Jiang responded strongly to the charges. He warned that a
group of leftists were trying to exploit some "social
contradictions" within the society for their own political
purposes.

He also warned that the CCP should never ignore a challenge
from remnant Maoists.

Challenges from the leftists constitute one of the daunting
problems that Jiang has to deal with in the run-up to the 15th
CCP Congress. It seems that such defiance may even become more
pressing if Jiang announced and pushed for greater economic
reform and liberalization at the coming Congress.

Indeed, it has been reported that Jiang is preparing a major
boost to reforms, especially in accelerating the process of
creating the basic framework for a market economy in China and
strengthening the role of the private sector.

In addition to such crucial issues, there is another problem
for which Jiang must find a solution. In this regard, he must
determine who should fill the key positions in the power
structure.

The main issue will center around the question of who might
become the prime minister. It has been widely speculated that it
is very likely that Jiang will endorse the appointment of the
reform-minded Zhu Rongji, currently deputy prime minister, to
replace incumbent Prime Minister Li Peng.

It is also said that Li Peng would be made Chairman of the
National People Congress (NPC) replacing Qiao Shi. This means
that Jiang has to find a new position for Qiao Shi. It is not
clear, therefore, whether Li Peng and especially Qiao Shi will
accept this arrangement.

It is likely that Jiang might have thought about this problem.
His plan to revive the post of chairman of the CCP, if accepted,
will provide a position that can be offered to Qiao Shi, namely,
the position of Vice-Chairman of the CCP.

However, it is apparently not easy for Jiang to revive that
position. Many within the party are worried that the plan is
actually intended to serve Jiang's personal ambition in elevating
his own stature in China's politics.

Even Jiang's own followers and supporters maintain that
reviving the position closely associated with Mao Zedong's
unrivaled authority, which was abolished by Deng when he came to
power at the end of the 1970s, will have negative consequences.

Many unhappy episodes in China's domestic politics were in
part caused by the exercise of unlimited power held by Mao. Bad
memories linger of the Wenhua Dageming (Cultural Revolution), for
example, which existed in the not-too-distant past for most
Chinese. No matter how much Mao is revered, surely no one would
like to go back to the time where a leader's unlimited power
could affect the lives of almost any individual.

What is, then, the prospect for Jiang to remain in power?

It seems that up to now, Jiang is one step ahead of his
rivals. There are at least three noticeable tactics that Jiang is
pursuing in order to secure his position.

First, Jiang continues to seek support from the military. The
main support has, among others, come from the army's top man Gen.
Li Huaqing, who is also vice chairman of the Central Military
Commission (CMC) and a member of the Standing Committee of the
CCP Politburo.

In a recent speech before a veterans' meeting to celebrate the
70th Anniversary of the PLA, Gen. Liu clearly stated that the PLA
should "resolutely obey the command of the CCP Central Committee
and the CMC, with Comrade Jiang Zemin at the core."

At the closing of the speech, he again reiterated that "the
whole Army must closely unite around the CCP Central Committee
and the CMC with Comrade Jiang Zemin at the core" (BBC Summary of
World Broadcasts, Aug. 12, 1997).

Second, Jiang has also engaged in "image-making" to elevate
his own standing and credibility as the paramount leader of a
post-Deng China. One indication of the use of this tactic is that
the publication of a text book compiling the thoughts of Mao
Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and also Jiang.

Indeed, the publication of the book can be interpreted as an
attempt by Jiang to put himself on the same ideological level as
Mao and Deng. By associating himself with the two Chinese great
leaders, it seems that he attempts to further bolster his own
legitimacy.

As an editorial in the People's Daily said: "Coming ahead of
the 15th party congress, (the publication) is an ideological
weapon for our party to understand and change the world..." (The
Indonesian Observer, Aug. 8, 1997).

Third, Jiang has also tried to strengthen his position by
pushing for further economic reforms. For example, Jiang has
tried to boost his reformist credentials at the recent meeting of
top leaders at the resort area of Beidahe.

More importantly, Jiang has made it known that he intends to
endorse a number of measures that would further cut the role of
the state in the economy. For example, Jiang proposes to
transform some large and medium scale state-owned companies into
share-holding companies. He has also endorsed the concept of
shehuihua shengchan or "socialized production" to justify the
idea. This has received strong support from provincial leaders.

However, it is still too early to say if Jiang has succeeded
in securing his position in the run up to the congress. Other
contending leaders, such as Li Peng and Qiao Shi, have not
expressed their position clearly.

There is still Deng Liqun, an elder who is often identified as
a leader of an anti-Jiang faction, to reckon with. Therefore, how
Jiang plans to deal with these challenges will become clearer at
the upcoming CCP Congress.

The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, Jakarta.