Poverty and the prospects for democracy

Sirojudin Abbas Jakarta

The latest report released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in December, 2004, reveals that 17.4 percent (37.4 million) of the Indonesian population live in extreme poverty (under the poverty line). The report also says that another 20 percent of the population is susceptible to falling under the poverty line (the Indonesian poverty line is far below the UN poverty line, which is US$1 per day, while the Indonesian poverty line is the equivalent of $12 per month). In 2004, between 30 million and 40 million people were unemployed or underemployed.

Meanwhile, last year's legislative and presidential elections showed that democracy is flourishing in Indonesia. This was signaled by the high level of public participation in terms of voting, the holding of fair and free elections, and the willingness of the public to resolve differences in political and ideological orientation peacefully and openly.

A total of 84.07 percent of registered voters actually cast ballots in the legislative election. There was also a high turnout in the presidential election (78.23 percent in the first round and 76.63 percent in the second round). Furthermore, Muslims, who make up the vast majority of the population in this country (87 percent out of 220 million people), have successfully shown that Islam is not only compatible with, but can also be a major contributor to, democracy.

In the last general election, the majority of Indonesian Muslim voters preferred secular parties (76 percent) rather than Islam-based parties (17 percent). This not only positions Indonesia as a leading Muslim-majority country that has planted the seeds of democracy, but also gives new hope that the country will begin to recover and progress after a long period of economic and political stagnation.

An improvement in social services will require the strong support of a democratic political structure, as well as conducive economic policies. Conversely, the consolidation of democracy can only be achieved if the level of public welfare is improved.

The failure of democracy and economic development in many Muslim-majority countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia is, in part, caused by the failure of these countries to improve the well-being of their citizens. The failure of guided democracy in the early 1960s is also a good example of how mass poverty decreased the level of people's confidence in democracy.

Therefore, democracy in Indonesia faces a huge challenge. The swelling ranks of the poor are waiting for improvements in welfare, education, health services and employment opportunities as direct benefits of their support for democracy. Furthermore, since Muslims make up the vast majority of the Indonesian population, it is important to bear in mind that their well-being will determine the success or failure of democratic consolidation and economic development.

However, there are concerns that economic recovery might not immediately translate into support for the effort to fulfill the rights of the poor and disadvantaged communities. These concerns are understandable given that over the last few years Indonesia has been accepting of the economic structural adjustment programs prescribed by the IMF. The retrenchment trend in social welfare spending was one of the direct effects of the IMF's economic prescription.

This retrenchment indicates that social welfare development does not yet exist in mainstream economic policy. If IMF-style thinking continues to dominate Indonesian economic development policy, then the economic recovery that may result from the consolidation of democratic politics will not necessarily provide a positive contribution to improvements in social welfare. This might, in turn, increase the risks confronting democratic consolidation.

Unfortunately, the Indonesian government does not yet have a consolidated grand strategy for poverty alleviation. This is because there are so far no agreed definitions of poverty. The current poverty definitions and indicators being used were developed by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the National Family Planning Board (BKKBN).

The BPS uses the basic assumption of the total level of monthly expenditure required by each person to stay alive, which works out at Rp 80,000 per month in rural areas and Rp 100,000 per month in urban areas.

The BKKBN uses five social indicators to measure the level of welfare of a household but not the welfare of the individuals who make up the household. A household is characterized as poor (pre- welfare) if it cannot satisfy one of the five social indicators: Performing religious obligations; eating twice a day or more; occupying a house; able to access health services; and possessing more than one set of clothes.

The absence of a solid definition of poverty has resulted in a lack of precise figures as regards the size of the poor population and a lack of focus in the implementation of poverty alleviation programs. The assistance funds to be provided to the poor following the reduction in fuel subsidy spending, for instance, faces a major problem in that there is a lack of data on who is actually entitled to receive the assistance. This gives rise to serious doubt as to whether the assistance funds will be able to effectively lower the poverty rate. Instead, the position of the poor might even deteriorate even further and, in the long run, the number of poor people might actually increase.

The planned poverty summit to be held soon is expected to produce consolidated poverty indicators that incorporate the human development indicators formulated by the United Nations (UN). It is hoped, therefore, that an orchestrated effort geared toward poverty alleviation will result in a meaningful improvement in the welfare of the majority of Indonesian citizens.

Taking care of the poor and helping them to achieve their potential will undoubtedly strengthen the future of democracy, which has only just begun to take root in Indonesia.

The author is a lecturer at the State Islamic University (UIN) School of Social Welfare, Jakarta. He can be reached at sirojudina@yahoo.com.