Poverty and the prospects for democracy

Poverty and the prospects for democracy

Sirojudin Abbas
Jakarta

The latest report released by the Central Statistics Agency
(BPS) in December, 2004, reveals that 17.4 percent (37.4 million)
of the Indonesian population live in extreme poverty (under the
poverty line). The report also says that another 20 percent of
the population is susceptible to falling under the poverty line
(the Indonesian poverty line is far below the UN poverty line,
which is US$1 per day, while the Indonesian poverty line is the
equivalent of $12 per month). In 2004, between 30 million and 40
million people were unemployed or underemployed.

Meanwhile, last year's legislative and presidential elections
showed that democracy is flourishing in Indonesia. This was
signaled by the high level of public participation in terms of
voting, the holding of fair and free elections, and the
willingness of the public to resolve differences in political and
ideological orientation peacefully and openly.

A total of 84.07 percent of registered voters actually cast
ballots in the legislative election. There was also a high
turnout in the presidential election (78.23 percent in the first
round and 76.63 percent in the second round). Furthermore,
Muslims, who make up the vast majority of the population in this
country (87 percent out of 220 million people), have successfully
shown that Islam is not only compatible with, but can also be a
major contributor to, democracy.

In the last general election, the majority of Indonesian
Muslim voters preferred secular parties (76 percent) rather than
Islam-based parties (17 percent). This not only positions
Indonesia as a leading Muslim-majority country that has planted
the seeds of democracy, but also gives new hope that the country
will begin to recover and progress after a long period of
economic and political stagnation.

An improvement in social services will require the strong
support of a democratic political structure, as well as conducive
economic policies. Conversely, the consolidation of democracy can
only be achieved if the level of public welfare is improved.

The failure of democracy and economic development in many
Muslim-majority countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Central
Asia is, in part, caused by the failure of these countries to
improve the well-being of their citizens. The failure of guided
democracy in the early 1960s is also a good example of how mass
poverty decreased the level of people's confidence in democracy.

Therefore, democracy in Indonesia faces a huge challenge. The
swelling ranks of the poor are waiting for improvements in
welfare, education, health services and employment opportunities
as direct benefits of their support for democracy. Furthermore,
since Muslims make up the vast majority of the Indonesian
population, it is important to bear in mind that their well-being
will determine the success or failure of democratic consolidation
and economic development.

However, there are concerns that economic recovery might not
immediately translate into support for the effort to fulfill the
rights of the poor and disadvantaged communities. These concerns
are understandable given that over the last few years Indonesia
has been accepting of the economic structural adjustment programs
prescribed by the IMF. The retrenchment trend in social welfare
spending was one of the direct effects of the IMF's economic
prescription.

This retrenchment indicates that social welfare development
does not yet exist in mainstream economic policy. If IMF-style
thinking continues to dominate Indonesian economic development
policy, then the economic recovery that may result from the
consolidation of democratic politics will not necessarily provide
a positive contribution to improvements in social welfare. This
might, in turn, increase the risks confronting democratic
consolidation.

Unfortunately, the Indonesian government does not yet have a
consolidated grand strategy for poverty alleviation. This is
because there are so far no agreed definitions of poverty. The
current poverty definitions and indicators being used were
developed by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the National
Family Planning Board (BKKBN).

The BPS uses the basic assumption of the total level of
monthly expenditure required by each person to stay alive, which
works out at Rp 80,000 per month in rural areas and Rp 100,000
per month in urban areas.

The BKKBN uses five social indicators to measure the level of
welfare of a household but not the welfare of the individuals who
make up the household. A household is characterized as poor (pre-
welfare) if it cannot satisfy one of the five social indicators:
Performing religious obligations; eating twice a day or more;
occupying a house; able to access health services; and possessing
more than one set of clothes.

The absence of a solid definition of poverty has resulted in a
lack of precise figures as regards the size of the poor
population and a lack of focus in the implementation of poverty
alleviation programs. The assistance funds to be provided to the
poor following the reduction in fuel subsidy spending, for
instance, faces a major problem in that there is a lack of data
on who is actually entitled to receive the assistance. This gives
rise to serious doubt as to whether the assistance funds will be
able to effectively lower the poverty rate. Instead, the position
of the poor might even deteriorate even further and, in the long
run, the number of poor people might actually increase.

The planned poverty summit to be held soon is expected to
produce consolidated poverty indicators that incorporate the
human development indicators formulated by the United Nations
(UN). It is hoped, therefore, that an orchestrated effort geared
toward poverty alleviation will result in a meaningful
improvement in the welfare of the majority of Indonesian
citizens.

Taking care of the poor and helping them to achieve their
potential will undoubtedly strengthen the future of democracy,
which has only just begun to take root in Indonesia.

The author is a lecturer at the State Islamic University
(UIN) School of Social Welfare, Jakarta. He can be reached at
sirojudina@yahoo.com.