Potential of kampong voters

At least three outstanding features were referred to in a piece by Rob Goodfellow, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia, titled 2004 elections: What is happening in the kampongs? (The Jakarta Post, Jan. 7).

First, within the context of the upcoming general elections, focus is specifically placed on the potential of the electorate in the kampongs for deciding what political party will win, and, by the same token, which of the presidential candidates will come out triumphant.

Second, in the course of 2003, noted research institutions carried out polling on social and economic problems of concern to people in kampong communities. Oft-repeated social ills and economic deprivation were raised with kampong people for comment.

Third, in response to a question regarding what party the voter would support in 2004 and whom they would vote for in the presidential election, only the big four parties were reportedly well-known among kampong people, while the other 20, due to take part in the forthcoming elections, were not generally known.

As regards the choice of voting for the president, the electorate in kampongs reportedly showed discontent with current social and economic conditions and complained about delayed reform.

However, as conditions are so confusing and uncertain until the actual casting of ballots in April and July, it appears that forecasting a more definitive outcome of the elections will still be difficult.

It may be recalled that back in the U.S. presidential elections in 1948, the Republican candidate, New York Governor John E. Dewey, was predicted nationwide to be the sure winner. However, the American electorate was terribly shocked by the ultimate victory of the underdog, Democrat Harry S. Truman, who had campaigned vigorously until the very end.

Although that occurred in the U.S., a similar thing could well take place in Indonesia, if the requisite zeal and fighting spirit in making direct contact with kampong voters is shown by a would-be presidential candidate.

Badly delivered campaign speeches on television, without substance with regard to a genuine commitment to improving people's lives, will not secure victory for election candidates.

S. SUHAEDI
Jakarta