Post-Election Afghanistan: What's next? Pyotr Goncharov RIA Novosti Moscow

What future awaits Afghanistan after last Sunday's parliamentary elections? Will the new parliament facilitate or block reforms? Afghanistan's major donors are waiting for the outcome of the elections with natural apprehensions -- in accordance with the Bonn agreements they have been investing heavily into the nation's liberal and democratic reforms, and its effort to build a new economy, army and government structure. It is clear that the new government will be akin to the new parliament.

Until now the Karzai team has been making a good effort in reforming Afghanistan, with considerable assistance from the United States and the West. Will the new government be loyal to Karzai if Islamists get a majority in parliament? The answer to this question is worrying the United States and other Western nations because an Islamic conservative parliament is bound to block democratic reforms.

Is this concern justified? Let's turn to the results of the elections.

Its military-political lineup has not changed much. The armed opposition is represented by the same old guys -- warlords of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan (Hezb-e Islami) led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, isolated groups of Talibs, and al-Qaeda commandos.

Pro-government forces continue to be confidently led by the prominent Mojahed leaders Rabbani, Qanuni, and Sayaf who are competing for the speaker's seat.

Technocrats and intellectuals are the main supporters of the ongoing reforms, but they are too weak and isolated to offer serious resistance to the mojaheds.

Independent political expert Ahmad Shah Obaid, who ran in the elections as an independent candidate, thinks that the technocrats will rank third in parliament after the regional elite and warlords: "These are not our elections. The intellectuals are obviously weak in Afghanistan. Karzai will have to face opposition from the warlords who are likely to have the biggest number of seats in parliament. It remains to be seen how tough the opposition will be on the President's domestic and foreign policies, the last being even more important."

Many experts believe, however, that there is no need to dramatize the situation. Karzai is ready for this turn of events. In a recent interview with a Western newspaper he reminded the U.S. and other Western nations that they themselves had brought the mojaheds to life in order to fight the Communist regime. In other words, Karzai called on the donor countries to treat a potential opposition as a reality of today's Afghanistan.

Much will depend on who will lead the opposition in parliament. Most experts think that prominent Afghan politician Yunus Qanuni has the best chances. He represented Afghanistan at the Bonn conference in 2001, and was the minister of the interior in the transitional government. Qanuni has already set up a bloc of a dozen parties, and may well become the parliament's speaker.

Experts believe that the Qanuni-led opposition will be generally mild. It will be adamant only on major issues, such as the distribution of key portfolios (defense, interior, foreign affairs, finances), or the presence of the U.S.-led anti- terrorist coalition forces on Afghan territory. This is an old "headache" for the mojaheds, and they will demand that Karzai sets a deadline for the withdrawal of U.S. military bases from Afghanistan.

The parliament, or Jirga (council of local authorities), has traditionally played an important role in the political and social life of Afghanistan. Major Afghan politicians and experts believe that the restoration of this institution, which was destroyed more than 30 years ago, will be instrumental in removing political tensions.