Post Cold War political dust needs time to settle

Post Cold War political dust needs time to settle

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The triangular relationship between the three
great powers in the Asia Pacific -- China, Japan and the U.S. --
is crucial for stability, peace and prosperity in the region. The
bilateral relations of these countries, however, are also
important.

U.S.-Japan alliance is the anchor for the region's stability.
When the treaty was renewed, with the Clinton-Hashimoto
Declaration, it enable both nations to deal with the strategic
environment in the post-Cold War era.

The two economies are now integrated and an imbalance in trade
is unlikely to undo the relationship, although Japan cannot take
this for granted. Economic cooperation is important to this
bilateral relationship.

The U.S.-Japan collaboration is important for dealing with
potential crises in the future but the most important link for
avoiding tension and conflict in the region is between the U.S.
and China.

Flash points in the Asia-Pacific could turn into nasty
conflicts. There is the problem of nuclear proliferation in North
Korea and possible aggression, the use of force in the Taiwan
Straits if Taiwan declares independence and the possibility of
clashes due to overlapping sovereignty claims in the South China
Sea.

The resolution or stabilization of these potential conflicts
will really depend, to a large extent, on the strategic relations
between the U.S. and China. This does not mean that they can
solve all those problems by themselves. But their willingness to
find a resolution are of paramount importance to finally
resolving those tensions.

This important bilateral relationship is now full of
uncertainty because both sides are faced with domestic
constraints and challenges that are hampering the development of
normal relations.

On one side, the U.S. domestic scene antiChinese feelings have
arisen and China is being viewed as a potential new "demon",
replacing the former Soviet Union. Behind the moves are right-
wing legislators, human rights advocates, religious rights groups
and the pro-Taiwan lobby.

While the president is trying to find a balance, by
formulating overarching strategic relations with Chinese since
end of 1996, his ability to develop links has been hampered by
"Asia Gate".

In addition, the president has no security and foreign affairs
advisors at the cabinet level who know enough about Asia. In
general the informed elite are still Europe-oriented and he has
not been willing to sacrifice too much political capital for East
Asia, especially for China.

The debate in the U.S. on a new national security and foreign
policy, following the end of the Cold War, will continue for some
time before a consensus can be reached. Therefore, some
capriciousness and confusion in the policy debate toward China
are to be expected. This calls for a lot of patience among those
who have to deal with the U.S., especially regarding the nation's
relationship with China.

China is developing very fast economically yet it is faced
with some real domestic constraints in formulating a stable,
constructive and positive policy towards the U.S. There is a
"Middle Kingdom" mentality with substantial achievements made in
the reforms and modernization. But China has problems with
knowing how to behave properly toward the U.S.

It needs the U.S. as an economic partner for modernization,
but the U.S.'s ideological bias and great power status also
causes a lot of pressures for China. This is being compounded by
the capriciousness of U.S. policies and a president who is not
really focusing his attention on foreign policy, especially not
on East Asia or China.

For the region, a stable strategic relationship between the
U.S. and China is a prerequisite for peace and stability as well
as prosperity and economic dynamism in the future. This is
especially so for small and medium size countries adjacent to
China, such as ASEAN nations. For this reason it is imperative
for the association to play a constructive role in ensuring the
relationship is a stable one, however limited this contribution
might be.

First, ASEAN has to support the U.S. presence in East Asia
through its alliance with Japan. This functions as an anchor for
stability in the region. Equally important are efforts to help
convince China that the Clinton-Hashimoto Declaration in early
1996 is not directed at the nation but is, instead, aimed at
ensuring some limited support from the Japanese to U.S. forces in
a potential Korean Peninsula crisis.

Second, ASEAN has to support multilateral efforts toward the
creation of an Asia Pacific community. These efforts are
currently undertaken by organizations such as the Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation, the ASEAN Regional Forum and complementary
bodies including the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council,
Pacific Basin Economic Council and the Council for Security
Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.

The active participation and engagement of China in these
efforts are vital to their success. ASEAN could act as a catalyst
in this regard. In the near future, the association should
participate in the debate on U.S.-China relations in the U.S.
through seminars and conferences, as well as through the media.

Americans need to understand that for East Asia, and
particularly ASEAN, the policy of containing China will be
disastrous for the region even if it could be achieved. The
region is of the opinion that the best policy is to engage China.
This will give China the chance to participate fully in the
region and become a responsible member, as one of the great
powers in the Asia-Pacific. And the nation can emerge in a
peaceful way with the acceptance and respect of the region.

The coming decade will be the time to convince China of its
role in the region. After a few years of "learning", China has
now taken up multilateralism as one of its own strategies in
dealing with the Asia-Pacific region. This gives ASEAN a chance
to continue supporting China's participation in laying down a
regional order and establishing an Asia-Pacific community.

ASEAN understands that this will not be easy. Some zigzagging
in China's reactions and policies should be also expected in the
future. But ASEAN should recognize that giving China the
encouragement and support it needs is part of the association's
mission in the Asia Pacific.

The writer is chairman of the supervisory board of the Center
for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.