Post Cold War political dust needs time to settle

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The triangular relationship between the three great powers in the Asia Pacific -- China, Japan and the U.S. -- is crucial for stability, peace and prosperity in the region. The bilateral relations of these countries, however, are also important.

U.S.-Japan alliance is the anchor for the region's stability. When the treaty was renewed, with the Clinton-Hashimoto Declaration, it enable both nations to deal with the strategic environment in the post-Cold War era.

The two economies are now integrated and an imbalance in trade is unlikely to undo the relationship, although Japan cannot take this for granted. Economic cooperation is important to this bilateral relationship.

The U.S.-Japan collaboration is important for dealing with potential crises in the future but the most important link for avoiding tension and conflict in the region is between the U.S. and China.

Flash points in the Asia-Pacific could turn into nasty conflicts. There is the problem of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and possible aggression, the use of force in the Taiwan Straits if Taiwan declares independence and the possibility of clashes due to overlapping sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.

The resolution or stabilization of these potential conflicts will really depend, to a large extent, on the strategic relations between the U.S. and China. This does not mean that they can solve all those problems by themselves. But their willingness to find a resolution are of paramount importance to finally resolving those tensions.

This important bilateral relationship is now full of uncertainty because both sides are faced with domestic constraints and challenges that are hampering the development of normal relations.

On one side, the U.S. domestic scene antiChinese feelings have arisen and China is being viewed as a potential new "demon", replacing the former Soviet Union. Behind the moves are right- wing legislators, human rights advocates, religious rights groups and the pro-Taiwan lobby.

While the president is trying to find a balance, by formulating overarching strategic relations with Chinese since end of 1996, his ability to develop links has been hampered by "Asia Gate".

In addition, the president has no security and foreign affairs advisors at the cabinet level who know enough about Asia. In general the informed elite are still Europe-oriented and he has not been willing to sacrifice too much political capital for East Asia, especially for China.

The debate in the U.S. on a new national security and foreign policy, following the end of the Cold War, will continue for some time before a consensus can be reached. Therefore, some capriciousness and confusion in the policy debate toward China are to be expected. This calls for a lot of patience among those who have to deal with the U.S., especially regarding the nation's relationship with China.

China is developing very fast economically yet it is faced with some real domestic constraints in formulating a stable, constructive and positive policy towards the U.S. There is a "Middle Kingdom" mentality with substantial achievements made in the reforms and modernization. But China has problems with knowing how to behave properly toward the U.S.

It needs the U.S. as an economic partner for modernization, but the U.S.'s ideological bias and great power status also causes a lot of pressures for China. This is being compounded by the capriciousness of U.S. policies and a president who is not really focusing his attention on foreign policy, especially not on East Asia or China.

For the region, a stable strategic relationship between the U.S. and China is a prerequisite for peace and stability as well as prosperity and economic dynamism in the future. This is especially so for small and medium size countries adjacent to China, such as ASEAN nations. For this reason it is imperative for the association to play a constructive role in ensuring the relationship is a stable one, however limited this contribution might be.

First, ASEAN has to support the U.S. presence in East Asia through its alliance with Japan. This functions as an anchor for stability in the region. Equally important are efforts to help convince China that the Clinton-Hashimoto Declaration in early 1996 is not directed at the nation but is, instead, aimed at ensuring some limited support from the Japanese to U.S. forces in a potential Korean Peninsula crisis.

Second, ASEAN has to support multilateral efforts toward the creation of an Asia Pacific community. These efforts are currently undertaken by organizations such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, the ASEAN Regional Forum and complementary bodies including the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, Pacific Basin Economic Council and the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.

The active participation and engagement of China in these efforts are vital to their success. ASEAN could act as a catalyst in this regard. In the near future, the association should participate in the debate on U.S.-China relations in the U.S. through seminars and conferences, as well as through the media.

Americans need to understand that for East Asia, and particularly ASEAN, the policy of containing China will be disastrous for the region even if it could be achieved. The region is of the opinion that the best policy is to engage China. This will give China the chance to participate fully in the region and become a responsible member, as one of the great powers in the Asia-Pacific. And the nation can emerge in a peaceful way with the acceptance and respect of the region.

The coming decade will be the time to convince China of its role in the region. After a few years of "learning", China has now taken up multilateralism as one of its own strategies in dealing with the Asia-Pacific region. This gives ASEAN a chance to continue supporting China's participation in laying down a regional order and establishing an Asia-Pacific community.

ASEAN understands that this will not be easy. Some zigzagging in China's reactions and policies should be also expected in the future. But ASEAN should recognize that giving China the encouragement and support it needs is part of the association's mission in the Asia Pacific.

The writer is chairman of the supervisory board of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.