Post-Cold War Europe

The great elation over the deal between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia on new security arrangements in Europe masks one of the saddest post-Cold War realities: that mutual suspicions which had underpinned the Cold War have not been entirely removed.

The deal paved the way for NATO's plan to bring in some of Russia's former Warsaw Pact allies into its fold. To appease Moscow, which is objecting to NATO's expansion, a joint permanent council will be established within NATO in which Moscow's security concerns will be addressed. The deal has been widely seen as a milestone in achieving the long-held goal of establishing a peaceful, undivided and democratic Europe for the first time in history. Yesterday, NATO formally adopted the pact, clearing the way for signing of the agreement between Russia's President Boris Yeltsin and NATO's 16 leaders in Paris on May 27. NATO leaders will meet again in Madrid in July to decide the alliance's first new members of the post-Cold War era: Poland, Hungary and the Czech republic are considered certain while Romania and Slovenia are also being considered.

The agreement glosses over the mutual suspicions that Russia on one side, and its European neighbors and the United States on the other, are harboring. Many East European states are anxious to join NATO because of their fears of not only Moscow's intentions, but also its military capability. Some of these still recall when they were forced to join the Warsaw Pact at gunpoint. Russia has every right to be suspicious of NATO, its nemesis during the Cold War, and has stated its objection to the stationing of NATO troops along its huge European borders. These suspicions are not founded solely on history. If that was the case, then there ought to be suspicions against Germany, given its records in two world wars this century.

The same suspicions gave rise to different interpretations of the deal, which emerged as soon as it was struck by NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana and Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov in Moscow on Tuesday. Russia believes it will have veto power in NATO's affairs, but NATO leaders say Russia will only have a voice within the organization.

There are also indications of strong opposition among hard- line Russian leaders. Russia's top national security chief Ivan Rybkin, in an interview with the New York Times, said NATO's decision to expand has hurt the chances that parliament will ratify a strategic arms reduction treaty, known as START II, with the United States.

One is tempted at this point to draw an analogy in Asia, with China being the giant country haunting its smaller neighbors. Certainly concerns of Beijing's intentions and military capability exist among the smaller Asian states, and they are growing as China develops to become an economic giant. Without a NATO-like institution, security in Asia has been propped up in large part thanks to the strong American military presence in the region. Asia's record when it comes to wars is no less horrifying compared to Europe's, and suspicions abound now, not only between China and the rest of Asia, but among many of the smaller states.

There can be no lasting peace as long as these suspicions exist, be it in Europe, Asia or anywhere else in the world. But it is doubtful whether peace is that much closer in Europe with the latest NATO-Russia deal. The pact must be seen as a short- term measure, to give some sense of security to small European states. In the long run, European countries must work to remove the remaining suspicions and learn how to live peacefully side by side. It is doubtful whether NATO, one of the few remaining Cold War institutions, is the correct forum for these discussions. NATO's expansion, rather than abating suspicions, could actually strengthen them.