Popularity a vital factor in Surabaya elections

Candidates running for mayor and deputy mayor in the Surabaya regional elections will have their fate determined on Monday, June 27. Speculation is rife, but the election's outcome is far from clear. The following is an excerpt of an interview with Surabaya's Airlangga University director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights Studies, Mohammad Asfar, with The Jakarta Post's Indra Harsaputra.

Question:Do you see any specific difference in public behavior in the direct elections for regional heads compared to the previous general elections?

Answer: The regional election arena is not far different from the previous general elections. The behavior of regional communities in the election of regional heads is in fact about the same as that in last year's presidential elections, where people were more inclined to choose the contender based on their popularity rather than their political party associations.

In the last presidential elections in Surabaya, for instance, the majority of votes went to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, while in the earlier legislative elections most Surabayans voted for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP).

In these regional elections, the fame of candidates seems to be the determining factor. Based on my opinion polls in several parts of East Java, like Surabaya and Lamongan, around 70 percent of regional candidates are relying on their degree of popularity among local people.

In Lamongan, Masfuk as a candidate is backed by 70 percent of the local community even though he is a non-party figure. In Surabaya, Bambang DH is far more famous than the other candidates so he has a chance of winning. He made his preparations in gaining popularity three years ago, whereas the other contestants only had one or two months to introduce themselves to the public. So it's understandable that some people are not yet familiar with some of the candidates.

Does the media have a role in building candidate popularity?

Today many nominees are applying direct campaigning methods by distributing posters and leaflets in villages, which is actually effective in raising candidate popularity. Meanwhile, the role of the (printed) media is less effective due to low rates of readership.

In my research, 30 percent of 1,000 people in Surabaya were aware of candidates from posters rather than through the media. Erlangga Satriagung, for instance, has written many articles in various newspapers before the campaigning period, yet he is far less prominent than Bambang DH, whose posters are plastered all over the city.

Effective regional election campaigns are conducted through dialogues in market places, religious gatherings, neighborhood meetings and other programs with the masses. This is unlike previous elections, where contenders were popularized through the media.

Does the participation of Dahlan Iskan, the Jawa Pos CEO, as a campaigner for one of the candidates affected public response?

It's obvious that Jawa Pos as the largest newspaper in East Java has contributed to the campaigns of the contestants. Dahlan Iskan, as indicated in my November 2004 survey, ranked second after Bambang DH as respondent's preferred choice. Dahlan is more well known as the owner of this daily (newspaper) than as an entrepreneur.

Arif Affandi, Jawa Pos' former chief editor, has also jacked up public support for Bambang DH. Both newspaper bosses helped further raise support for Bambang DH from only 43 percent of the votes of 1,000 respondents in November to 46.75 percent after he paired up with Arif in June.

What is the role of political parties, which carry the votes of their constituents for their candidates?

Popularity certainly also comes from the political parties fielding the relevant candidates. Erlangga Satriagung, the mayoral aspirant from the National Mandate Party (PAN) in my initial survey in November 2004, was unknown by the 1,000 respondents in Surabaya.

But after he was nominated by PAN, Erlangga's poll provisionally reached 13.3 percent, meaning the party had an indirect role in pushing up Erlangga's popularity.

Likewise, Bambang DH, the other candidate, with the support of PDIP managed to score 48.9 percent of 1,000 respondents, far more than Erlangga. Bambang's score was due to the large number of PDIP followers and sympathizers in the city.

However, the National Awakening Party (PKB), fielding Alisyabana and Wahyudin Husein, provisionally registered a lower rate than Bambang DH while PKB's constituents in Surabaya were also as dominant as PDIP. With PKB's internal conflicts, many of their supporters have turned to candidates from other parties. The Golkar Party with Gatot Sudjito also saw their vote split due to a lack of solidity.

What about religious organizations like Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah?

NU and Muhammadiyah have always added color to elections in Indonesia, including the regional elections. NU figures and communities still contribute greatly to the votes of candidates.

Arif Affandi, Bambang DH's running mate, has frequently visited Islamic boarding schools (pesantren) in Surabaya. This former Jawa Pos chief editor is now even more welcomed by pesantren circles than Wahyudin Husein, who is on PKB's branch executive board. Wahyudin is less active in associating in these circles, while he was considered closer to NU members in Surabaya before nomination. If Arif maintains his ties with pesantren people then he is likely to become Surabaya's strongest mayoral contender.