Popularity a vital factor in Surabaya elections

Popularity a vital factor in Surabaya elections

Candidates running for mayor and deputy mayor in the Surabaya
regional elections will have their fate determined on Monday,
June 27. Speculation is rife, but the election's outcome is far
from clear. The following is an excerpt of an interview with
Surabaya's Airlangga University director of the Center for
Democracy and Human Rights Studies, Mohammad Asfar, with The
Jakarta Post's Indra Harsaputra.

Question:Do you see any specific difference in public behavior
in the direct elections for regional heads compared to the
previous general elections?

Answer: The regional election arena is not far different from
the previous general elections. The behavior of regional
communities in the election of regional heads is in fact about
the same as that in last year's presidential elections, where
people were more inclined to choose the contender based on their
popularity rather than their political party associations.

In the last presidential elections in Surabaya, for instance,
the majority of votes went to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, while in
the earlier legislative elections most Surabayans voted for the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP).

In these regional elections, the fame of candidates seems to
be the determining factor. Based on my opinion polls in several
parts of East Java, like Surabaya and Lamongan, around 70 percent
of regional candidates are relying on their degree of popularity
among local people.

In Lamongan, Masfuk as a candidate is backed by 70 percent of
the local community even though he is a non-party figure. In
Surabaya, Bambang DH is far more famous than the other candidates
so he has a chance of winning. He made his preparations in
gaining popularity three years ago, whereas the other contestants
only had one or two months to introduce themselves to the public.
So it's understandable that some people are not yet familiar with
some of the candidates.

Does the media have a role in building candidate popularity?

Today many nominees are applying direct campaigning methods by
distributing posters and leaflets in villages, which is actually
effective in raising candidate popularity. Meanwhile, the role of
the (printed) media is less effective due to low rates of
readership.

In my research, 30 percent of 1,000 people in Surabaya were
aware of candidates from posters rather than through the media.
Erlangga Satriagung, for instance, has written many articles in
various newspapers before the campaigning period, yet he is far
less prominent than Bambang DH, whose posters are plastered all
over the city.

Effective regional election campaigns are conducted through
dialogues in market places, religious gatherings, neighborhood
meetings and other programs with the masses. This is unlike
previous elections, where contenders were popularized through the
media.

Does the participation of Dahlan Iskan, the Jawa Pos CEO, as a
campaigner for one of the candidates affected public response?

It's obvious that Jawa Pos as the largest newspaper in East
Java has contributed to the campaigns of the contestants. Dahlan
Iskan, as indicated in my November 2004 survey, ranked second
after Bambang DH as respondent's preferred choice. Dahlan is more
well known as the owner of this daily (newspaper) than as an
entrepreneur.

Arif Affandi, Jawa Pos' former chief editor, has also jacked
up public support for Bambang DH. Both newspaper bosses helped
further raise support for Bambang DH from only 43 percent of the
votes of 1,000 respondents in November to 46.75 percent after he
paired up with Arif in June.

What is the role of political parties, which carry the votes
of their constituents for their candidates?

Popularity certainly also comes from the political parties
fielding the relevant candidates. Erlangga Satriagung, the
mayoral aspirant from the National Mandate Party (PAN) in my
initial survey in November 2004, was unknown by the 1,000
respondents in Surabaya.

But after he was nominated by PAN, Erlangga's poll
provisionally reached 13.3 percent, meaning the party had an
indirect role in pushing up Erlangga's popularity.

Likewise, Bambang DH, the other candidate, with the support of
PDIP managed to score 48.9 percent of 1,000 respondents, far more
than Erlangga. Bambang's score was due to the large number of
PDIP followers and sympathizers in the city.

However, the National Awakening Party (PKB), fielding
Alisyabana and Wahyudin Husein, provisionally registered a lower
rate than Bambang DH while PKB's constituents in Surabaya were
also as dominant as PDIP. With PKB's internal conflicts, many of
their supporters have turned to candidates from other parties.
The Golkar Party with Gatot Sudjito also saw their vote split due
to a lack of solidity.

What about religious organizations like Nahdlatul Ulama (NU)
and Muhammadiyah?

NU and Muhammadiyah have always added color to elections in
Indonesia, including the regional elections. NU figures and
communities still contribute greatly to the votes of candidates.

Arif Affandi, Bambang DH's running mate, has frequently
visited Islamic boarding schools (pesantren) in Surabaya. This
former Jawa Pos chief editor is now even more welcomed by
pesantren circles than Wahyudin Husein, who is on PKB's branch
executive board. Wahyudin is less active in associating in these
circles, while he was considered closer to NU members in Surabaya
before nomination. If Arif maintains his ties with pesantren
people then he is likely to become Surabaya's strongest mayoral
contender.