Polls say odds even for Megawati, Wiranto, Amien

A. Junaidi, Jakarta

A survey released on Wednesday suggests Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will be the top vote-getter in the July 5 presidential election, while Megawati Soekarnoputri, Wiranto and Amien Rais will be left scrambling to try and force a runoff.

"The winner of the presidential election will probably be Susilo, while it is still unclear who will finish in second as the three other candidates have an equal chance," the deputy director of the Institute for Research, Education and Information on Economic and Social Issues (LP3ES), E. Shobirin, said on Wednesday.

It is generally expected that none of the five presidential candidates will win a simple majority on July 5, which means a runoff would be held in September.

Most survey respondents, or 77.2 percent, said their minds were made up on who they would vote for, while 17.6 percent said they could still change their vote.

Shobirin said the survey was conducted between June 15 and June 23 and involved 2,525 respondents.

Susilo, who was nominated by the Democratic Party, was named by 35.8 percent of the respondents as their candidate.

Shobirin said the incumbent Megawati of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) was selected by 17.5 percent of respondents, Wiranto of the Golkar Party by 16.5 percent and Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party (PAN) by 13 percent.

"So with a margin of error of about 2 percent, Megawati, Wiranto and Amien still have a chance to finish second in the first round of the presidential election," Shobirin said.

Only 2.4 percent of respondents said they would vote for Hamzah Haz, 3.7 percent said they were undecided and 10.5 percent declined to say who they would vote for.

The LP3ES survey was conducted in 241 villages in 211 regencies of 31 provinces, and respondents were asked to fill out a questionnaire.

Earlier surveys using similar methods also showed Susilo receiving the most votes in the first round of the election.

LP3ES director Imam Ahmad conceded that the election could contain some surprises that the survey did not predict.

"Anything can change ... in the time left candidates could improve their performance," Imam said.

In the first of a televised two-part presidential dialog on Wednesday night, respondents to a television poll favored Amien (80 percent) to Megawati.

Imam said his organization's survey, for which the American funding agency USAID provided some Rp 750 million, was independent.

According to the survey, most respondents viewed Susilo, a retired general, as close to the grassroots, honest, wise and firm, and possessing the capability to solve the country's problems.

The survey also showed that Megawati was supported by members of all five of the country's main religions.

"Megawati was the most 'pluralist' candidate followed by Susilo," Shobirin said.

He said most supporters of Megawati and Wiranto came from villages, while Susilo and Amien drew much of their support from urban areas.