Polls say odds even for Megawati, Wiranto, Amien

Polls say odds even for Megawati, Wiranto, Amien

A. Junaidi, Jakarta

A survey released on Wednesday suggests Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
will be the top vote-getter in the July 5 presidential election,
while Megawati Soekarnoputri, Wiranto and Amien Rais will be left
scrambling to try and force a runoff.

"The winner of the presidential election will probably be
Susilo, while it is still unclear who will finish in second as
the three other candidates have an equal chance," the deputy
director of the Institute for Research, Education and Information
on Economic and Social Issues (LP3ES), E. Shobirin, said on
Wednesday.

It is generally expected that none of the five presidential
candidates will win a simple majority on July 5, which means a
runoff would be held in September.

Most survey respondents, or 77.2 percent, said their minds
were made up on who they would vote for, while 17.6 percent said
they could still change their vote.

Shobirin said the survey was conducted between June 15 and
June 23 and involved 2,525 respondents.

Susilo, who was nominated by the Democratic Party, was named
by 35.8 percent of the respondents as their candidate.

Shobirin said the incumbent Megawati of the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) was selected by 17.5 percent
of respondents, Wiranto of the Golkar Party by 16.5 percent and
Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party (PAN) by 13 percent.

"So with a margin of error of about 2 percent, Megawati,
Wiranto and Amien still have a chance to finish second in the
first round of the presidential election," Shobirin said.

Only 2.4 percent of respondents said they would vote for
Hamzah Haz, 3.7 percent said they were undecided and 10.5 percent
declined to say who they would vote for.

The LP3ES survey was conducted in 241 villages in 211
regencies of 31 provinces, and respondents were asked to fill out
a questionnaire.

Earlier surveys using similar methods also showed Susilo
receiving the most votes in the first round of the election.

LP3ES director Imam Ahmad conceded that the election could
contain some surprises that the survey did not predict.

"Anything can change ... in the time left candidates could
improve their performance," Imam said.

In the first of a televised two-part presidential dialog on
Wednesday night, respondents to a television poll favored Amien
(80 percent) to Megawati.

Imam said his organization's survey, for which the American
funding agency USAID provided some Rp 750 million, was
independent.

According to the survey, most respondents viewed Susilo, a
retired general, as close to the grassroots, honest, wise and
firm, and possessing the capability to solve the country's
problems.

The survey also showed that Megawati was supported by members
of all five of the country's main religions.

"Megawati was the most 'pluralist' candidate followed by
Susilo," Shobirin said.

He said most supporters of Megawati and Wiranto came from
villages, while Susilo and Amien drew much of their support from
urban areas.