Poll warns LDP against hubris

Yoshio Okubo The Daily Yomiuri Asia News Network Tokyo

How should we interpret the outcome of Sunday's House of Councillors election? There are two answers to this question.

One, as a warning against Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's arrogant way of advancing his policies and the stalemate of various reforms. Two, as a sign that the establishment of a two- party system has been accelerated.

The prime minister often cites the catch phrase "no reform, no growth." The Japanese economy is showing some positive signs of growth. Opinions are divided over whether this progress is actually a result of Koizumi's reforms.

His Cabinet has begun paving the way toward the privatization of road-related public corporations, though some have voiced concern that the approach remains half-hearted.

Despite such positive developments, the Liberal Democratic Party had to wage an uphill election battle, for obvious reasons.

First, Koizumi's administration of late has been less sincere, more arrogant and showing a lack of discipline common among long- serving governments.

The most recent example being Koizumi's remark -- "everyone is different" -- in connection with the pension reform issue when he came before the Diet in June. He made this comment after admitting he had joined the kosei nenkin employee pension system for corporate workers in the early 1970s without ever working at the company that qualified him to do so.

Apparently, such insincerity -- done to ward off criticism during Diet deliberation -- did not go unnoticed by voters. If this was a traffic accident, Koizumi would be blamed for negligence.

Second, voters' appreciation of Koizumi's reform efforts has waned. This is a simpler reason for Sunday's election results.

No concrete plans are yet in sight as to the proposed privatization of the country's postal services and the fundamental reform of the pension systems. Some people consider that little progress can be expected under Koizumi's leadership. He has reached his limit.

The LDP would have suffered a heavier setback in Sunday's election were it not for the support of its coalition partner, New Komeito.

Just prior to the poll, Koizumi resorted to one eleventh-hour measure after another to garner as many votes as possible. The appointment of a private-sector official as director general of the Social Insurance Agency, the administrator of the country's pension systems, and the Soga family reunion in Jakarta were part of this scheme.

Despite these measures and others, the LDP won only 49 seats -- a severe setback from the 64 seats won in the 2001 upper house election when Koizumi assumed the prime ministership. The prime minister will find it increasingly difficult to press ahead with his policies.

What Koizumi and the ruling coalition must do in the wake of Sunday's election is clear.

The prime minister and the ruling parties must change their random approach to tackling reform issues. Instead, they should carefully choose reform agendas with a clear vision for the country's future.

The ruling coalition should revamp the implementation of reforms and act more promptly in promoting them. It goes without saying that they must thoroughly and truthfully explain these reforms to the nation.

Clearly, Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) made remarkable gains in Sunday's contest. It has been 15 years since a main opposition party outperformed the LDP in an upper house election. In the 1989 upper house election, the defunct Japan Socialist Party won a landslide victory due to public anger over the Recruit stock-for-favors political scandal.

Minshuto's triumph, too, can be partially attributed to LDP failings. But its advances also represent a growing hope among voters for the emergence of an opposition party capable of taking power.

In this context, Minshuto is obliged to propose responsible policies.

Barring a dissolution of the House of Representatives for a snap poll, there will be no national election during the next three years. This gives political parties an opportunity to concentrate on realizing their policy agendas without worrying about imminent elections.

All political parties must squarely face such painful policy necessities such as the review of the consumption tax -- a prerequisite to securing the payment of future pension benefits. There also must be a profound debate over the revision of the Constitution and other substantial issues to lay out a clear course for Japan's future.