Politicians too busy to topple Mega

Politicians too busy to topple Mega

Bambang Nurbianto, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

If several local analysts' predictions are right, the next two
years belong to President Megawati Soekarnoputri, although she
may have to painfully bear the brunt of being discredited by her
political foes.

The same analysts are predicting that over the next two years,
politicians of all parties will be very busy preparing for the
2004 general elections and that also means preparing their
criticisms of her administration.

The 2004 elections will see the first direct presidential
election and some ambitious politicians are busy building their
images and alliances now.

Criticism of the government, although intensifying, will be
aimed at destroying her popularity, not to topple her, but to
reduce her chances of being re-elected.

"All the politicians who think they have a chance to become
number one (president) or number two (vice president) are
positioning themselves for 2004. Therefore President Megawati is
safe at least until 2004," said Hermawan "Kiki" Sulistyo on
Friday.

Criticisms of Megawati have been revolving around her
incompetence in dealing with the four-year-old economic crisis.
Her popularity has been undermined by the increase in prices of
electricity, fuel and basic commodities.

Politicians know all too well that if they seize power from
Megawati, they, too, will not be able to do anything to mend the
situation, said Hermawan, from the Indonesian Institute of
Sciences (LIPI).

Politicians from different parties are beginning to seek
allies ahead of the 2004 elections because they know that the
presidential and vice presidential candidates will more than
likely each come from different parties.

"Because the president will be elected directly by the people,
presidential and vice presidential candidates may come from
outside of the government, such as NU (Nahdlatul Ulama) chairman
Hasyim Muzadi," according to Hermawan.

The ongoing internal conflicts plaguing major political
parties, notably the United Development Party (PPP) and National
Awakening Party (PKB), are also predicted to change the way they
interact with other parties.

Chairman of one camp of PKB, Alwi Shihab, has hinted he would
forget his bitter rows with Megawati's Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) to form a possible alliance.

He said PDI Perjuangan, which played an important role in
toppling PKB chief Board of Patrons Abdurrahman Wahid in July,
was a "real PKB traditional partner".

A PKB-PDI Perjuangan alliance could be a powerful coalition
between a mainstream moderate Islamic group and a mainstream
nationalist group.

"A Megawati-Hasyim package has a great opportunity to win the
2004 elections," Hermawan said.

An important figure that should not be overlooked when
discussing the 2004 elections is the Muslim-based United
Development Party (PPP) chief Hamzah Haz, who is also the Vice
President.

Hamzah has presidential ambitions yet keeps his distance from
PDI Perjuangan. Instead, he is courting other Islamic parties,
the Crescent Star Party (PBB), Justice Party (PK) and other
smaller Islamic parties.

But Zainuddin M.Z., a popular Muslim cleric who may very soon
establish a breakaway party from PPP, called PPP Reformasi, is
reportedly having troubles cooperating with Hamzah.

PPP is also understood to have been building relations with
several retired generals such as Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, but he
also may establish his own party.

As for Amien Rais, chairman of the National Mandate Party
(PAN), Hermawan said he is over-confident because he receives
support from the 30 million-member Muhammadiyah, which is PAN's
main base.

Like Hamzah, Amien will also seek support from rightist
Islamic parties and retired generals.

But he also remains convinced that he will be supported by all
Muhammadiyah members who are currently involved with other
parties like Golkar, PPP and others.

But, Indria Samego of the Center for Information and
Development Studies (CIDES) said the investigation into Golkar
Party Chairman Akbar Tandjung, who was accused of diverting Rp 40
billion in state money to Golkar in 1999, would affect the
political situation.

He said Golkar will also be trying to implicate other
political parties in the case as its executives have threatened.

Indria believes the Akbar case is only the tip of the iceberg.
he said nearly all political parties violated the electoral laws
in 1999 elections, such as receiving donations more than the
maximum legally allowed: Rp 15 million from individuals and Rp
150 billion from organizations.

He said that a lot of money was spent during the election
campaign in 1999. The money, however, was most likely collected
by violating the law. "How could new political parties afford to
charter plane for campaigning?" Indria questioned.

Indria believes the Akbar case would also affect other
political parties and would affect the power struggle in 2004.