Politicians too busy to topple Mega
Bambang Nurbianto, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
If several local analysts' predictions are right, the next two years belong to President Megawati Soekarnoputri, although she may have to painfully bear the brunt of being discredited by her political foes.
The same analysts are predicting that over the next two years, politicians of all parties will be very busy preparing for the 2004 general elections and that also means preparing their criticisms of her administration.
The 2004 elections will see the first direct presidential election and some ambitious politicians are busy building their images and alliances now.
Criticism of the government, although intensifying, will be aimed at destroying her popularity, not to topple her, but to reduce her chances of being re-elected.
"All the politicians who think they have a chance to become number one (president) or number two (vice president) are positioning themselves for 2004. Therefore President Megawati is safe at least until 2004," said Hermawan "Kiki" Sulistyo on Friday.
Criticisms of Megawati have been revolving around her incompetence in dealing with the four-year-old economic crisis. Her popularity has been undermined by the increase in prices of electricity, fuel and basic commodities.
Politicians know all too well that if they seize power from Megawati, they, too, will not be able to do anything to mend the situation, said Hermawan, from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).
Politicians from different parties are beginning to seek allies ahead of the 2004 elections because they know that the presidential and vice presidential candidates will more than likely each come from different parties.
"Because the president will be elected directly by the people, presidential and vice presidential candidates may come from outside of the government, such as NU (Nahdlatul Ulama) chairman Hasyim Muzadi," according to Hermawan.
The ongoing internal conflicts plaguing major political parties, notably the United Development Party (PPP) and National Awakening Party (PKB), are also predicted to change the way they interact with other parties.
Chairman of one camp of PKB, Alwi Shihab, has hinted he would forget his bitter rows with Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) to form a possible alliance.
He said PDI Perjuangan, which played an important role in toppling PKB chief Board of Patrons Abdurrahman Wahid in July, was a "real PKB traditional partner".
A PKB-PDI Perjuangan alliance could be a powerful coalition between a mainstream moderate Islamic group and a mainstream nationalist group.
"A Megawati-Hasyim package has a great opportunity to win the 2004 elections," Hermawan said.
An important figure that should not be overlooked when discussing the 2004 elections is the Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP) chief Hamzah Haz, who is also the Vice President.
Hamzah has presidential ambitions yet keeps his distance from PDI Perjuangan. Instead, he is courting other Islamic parties, the Crescent Star Party (PBB), Justice Party (PK) and other smaller Islamic parties.
But Zainuddin M.Z., a popular Muslim cleric who may very soon establish a breakaway party from PPP, called PPP Reformasi, is reportedly having troubles cooperating with Hamzah.
PPP is also understood to have been building relations with several retired generals such as Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, but he also may establish his own party.
As for Amien Rais, chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN), Hermawan said he is over-confident because he receives support from the 30 million-member Muhammadiyah, which is PAN's main base.
Like Hamzah, Amien will also seek support from rightist Islamic parties and retired generals.
But he also remains convinced that he will be supported by all Muhammadiyah members who are currently involved with other parties like Golkar, PPP and others.
But, Indria Samego of the Center for Information and Development Studies (CIDES) said the investigation into Golkar Party Chairman Akbar Tandjung, who was accused of diverting Rp 40 billion in state money to Golkar in 1999, would affect the political situation.
He said Golkar will also be trying to implicate other political parties in the case as its executives have threatened.
Indria believes the Akbar case is only the tip of the iceberg. he said nearly all political parties violated the electoral laws in 1999 elections, such as receiving donations more than the maximum legally allowed: Rp 15 million from individuals and Rp 150 billion from organizations.
He said that a lot of money was spent during the election campaign in 1999. The money, however, was most likely collected by violating the law. "How could new political parties afford to charter plane for campaigning?" Indria questioned.
Indria believes the Akbar case would also affect other political parties and would affect the power struggle in 2004.