Politicians go all out to subtly condition voters' thoughts

Raul J. Palabrica Philippine Daily Inquirer Asia News Network Manila

With 41 days to go before the elections, the national and local candidates are up to their necks moving around, delivering speeches and preparing for the day of reckoning for their political ambitions.

More political advertisements will soon fill print and broadcast media. Additional posters, streamers and other campaign materials will be handed out to add to the tons of garbage produced daily.

Between now and April 25 (for presidential, vice-presidential and senatorial aspirants) and May 3 (for local candidates), expect to read or hear about surveys that purport to show that certain candidates are on the winning or losing track.

A reader, Eddie Vitug, expressed concern about the effect on the public of the surveys that the Inquirer had earlier written about. He wrote: "I would like to comment on how your editors seemingly take these survey results with great merit and importance that you even put them on the front page.

"I just do not get what is all the fuss about these surveys. They do not offer any real information. Being a cynical voter, what positive information can they offer the electorate? For me, I think all they do are two things:

"First, surveys dangerously 'condition' the mind of the people on who is supposed to win. The candidates and electorate might fall into the error of taking these surveys as points of comparison with the official results.

"The surveys can be used by losing parties as the excuse to complain about their defeat. We should not forget that it is the certification of the Commission on Elections on who won that matters, not the research of the survey companies.

"Second, surveys can dangerously persuade people into choosing the wrong candidates. Voters should vote for their chosen candidates on their own merit and not because they have a fighting chance.

"Instead of writing about surveys, why don't you make an objective profiling of the candidates? In this way, you give the electorate not perceptive or maliciously persuasive information but REAL information."

I share the reader's observations.

These so-called monitoring devices to determine the people's pulse before the elections play on the bandwagon mentality of most Filipinos. Or the perception that a vote cast for a candidate is "wasted" if that candidate loses.

Ergo, following this line of reasoning, if you want your votes to count, vote only for the candidates who, according to the survey results, have the strongest chance of winning. Never mind if that candidate is immoral, indecent and intellectually deprived. What matters is he or she, based on the survey, might win the election.

Unfortunately, ignoring surveys is easier said than done. They have already carved a niche in our electoral system. Political parties and candidates use them in mapping out their campaign strategies. For political analysts and sociologists, surveys are effective tools in determining the people's thoughts about certain issues in our society other than the choice of their candidates.

On the part of media, surveys provide information that deserve to be made known to the public. To those who enjoy or cannot avoid reading news about surveys, here are some things that you should take into consideration:

1. Reputation of the survey group. Not every organization or outfit that claims to be engaged in research is qualified to conduct an honest and reliable poll survey. Evaluating the voters' preferences requires academic training, expertise and competent personnel.

The list of credible survey organizations is short. If track record and credentials of the people behind them are used as criteria, the more trustworthy and credible survey groups are Social Weather Stations, Asian Research Organization and Pulse Asia, not necessarily arranged in the order of credibility.

If an outfit other than those mentioned conducts the survey, it would be advisable for the readers to take the survey results with a grain of salt.

2. Format of the questions. The answer to a survey question is influenced to a great extent by the way it is phrased. A person's reply to a question couched in positive words will be different from one that uses negative words.

A question that contains derogatory information about a candidate is expected to elicit a negative response. The question "will you vote for 'X' candidate if it is proven that he stole money from his business partners" will undoubtedly invite a "no" answer. It will be unfair to count that answer as an indication of lack of support for the affected candidate.

If the question is meant to favor a candidate, the question can be phrased in such a way that the candidate's good qualities are used as backgrounder, then the voter is asked if those qualities would make a difference in deciding who to vote for. The most likely reply to that question is a "yes." The shrewd survey evaluator will report that answer as an endorsement of the candidate.

3. Survey sponsor. The tried-and-tested survey groups have no qualms about disclosing the names of the people or organizations that engage their services. With a reputation to protect and nurture, these groups are least susceptible to the idea of manipulating survey results to meet the objectives of their sponsors.

If the sponsor is somebody who has links to the candidate who got good marks in the survey, or is an unknown organization with an impressive sounding name, it would be the better part of discretion to treat the survey as a political advertisement.

4. Period covered by the survey. The timing of the survey is critical to the credibility of the results. The results of a survey conducted before the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy are worthless when published three weeks before the election.

The closer the date the survey was conducted is to the date of publication of the results, the better. Like news, survey results become stale when not published immediately.

At the end of the day, what matters is not what the survey results show but the voters' appreciation of who among the candidates deserve to be elected to the posts they are aspiring for.