Politicians face statesmanship litmus test

With the elections behind us, the jockeying for the presidential election is on. Political analyst J. Soedjati Djiwandono looks at the issue.

JAKARTA (JP): President B.J. Habibie has acknowledged the final results of the elections clearly showed the mandate of the people for Megawati Soekarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) was greater than for himself. But for him the game is not over. He seems willing to go to the stake over his right to stay in the presidential race.

Indeed, it is for the first time, ever, that the Indonesian people are presented with more than one candidate for president. From the moment the final results of the general election were officially announced, however, it was definitely clear to everyone which candidate had won the largest number of votes.

Constitutionally, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) can elect anybody but Megawati as president. But would it be politically correct for the MPR to ignore the largest number of votes that were cast by the people? Indeed, one might well argue that the majority of the valid vote did not support Megawati for president, so the MPR is not legally bound to elect her president. One cannot possibly argue, however, that as president, Megawati would not have the mandate of the majority of the people. In fact, even in an advanced democracy like the USA, neither does an American president in view of the consistently small turnout at presidential elections.

I would argue, for one, that the rest of the votes -- the majority vote -- was cast by the people not in support of just one candidate other than Megawati, but to be enjoyed by other presidential candidates nominated by their respective parties. Those votes constitute less than two thirds of the total number of the (valid) vote, the rest having been won by Megawati.

That means that none of the other presidential candidates -- half a dozen or so in number prior to the elections -- were likely to win a larger number of votes than Megawati. Thus in the absence of a direct election for president, and in the absence of a second ballot or preferential voting mechanism for an election with more than two candidates, the MPR is politically and morally bound to elect, virtually to "confirm," Megawati as president.

The nomination of presidential candidates prior to the elections was a precedent in Indonesian democratic experimentation. Yet it was not unconstitutional. And that is precisely the way democracy often develops and a constitution is tested. That is also one way political conventions develop.

Indeed, if the precedent should be a forerunner of an Indonesian pattern of a presidential election in the future, a question may be raised on the continued justification of the MPR's existence and its functions. I have discussed this in a previous column.

There are other considerations of no less significance in political and psychological terms for the case of confirming Megawati as president. Above all, the country has been in a deep crisis, the worst since independence. This year's elections would not have been held but for the severe crisis, especially a crisis of a multidimensional nature.

I am not suggesting that I see Megawati as deus ex machina for all the ills of our society that have resulted from decades of mismanagement and bad governance by a corrupt dictatorial government. Reform will perhaps be a matter of process which will cover generations. But she will at least be the right beginning.

As I have said earlier in this column, for the people at large, a change of government would be seen not only as the single most important symbol of change, but also as the most visible manifestation of change. And change is what the people want. Megawati as president will be the right answer.

By contrast, in no way would Habibie be seen as a symbol of change, let alone of reform. In no way would he be able to disassociate himself from the Soeharto New Order regime with its practices of blatant manipulation, corruption, collusion, nepotism and cronyism. He is one of the longest serving ministers in Soeharto's successive Cabinets. In no way would he be able to avoid the image of his government as a mere extension of the New Order regime, made worse by his inapt policies on security matters and human rights violations affecting Aceh, East Timor and other parts of the country, not to mention the legal case against Soeharto and the financial scandals.

If the election of Megawati as president should be the most feasible and most peaceful alternative in the people's best interest, then the rest of the presidential aspirants, including particularly the incumbent President, should voluntarily withdraw their candidacy. As for the members of the new MPR, I hope they will carefully listen to their conscience and engage themselves in some serious soul searching. I refuse to believe that anyone in his or her right mind would seriously and honestly defend the status quo as a matter of principle.

The ultimate question is, however, whether these politicians really have the interest of the nation deep in their hearts. It would be the litmus test to their statesmanship, and above all, their patriotism.