Political vacuum hampers Japan in face-off with U.S.

By Linda Sieg

TOKYO (Reuters): A string of incidents involving U.S. forces in Japan and the sinking of a Japanese ship by a U.S. submarine are straining two-way ties just when a political vacuum has left Tokyo least able to cope.

Experts argue that the alliance, for decades the bedrock of Japan's defense and diplomacy, isn't unraveling.

But mishandling the potential crisis could feed latent anti- American sentiment, undermine popular support for the U.S. military presence in Japan and give ammunition to right-wing politicians hoping to broaden their base.

Ties between the two allies, already strained after the chief of U.S. forces on the Japanese island of Okinawa called his hosts "nuts and wimps" in an e-mail, were further bedeviled by the tragic sinking of a Japanese ship carrying students by the submarine USS Greeneville.

The Feb. 9 accident left nine missing, presumed dead.

"It was an accident but it's become a political problem and thrust into the hands of the politicians," said Keith Henry, a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's (MIT) Japan office.

"But the fact is that Japan doesn't have a prime minister capable of taking a strong and credible stance in dealing with the United States," he added.

Embattled Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, one of Japan's most unpopular premiers ever, is under intense pressure from within his ruling coalition to quit in order to improve the three-way ruling bloc's prospects in a tough Upper House election in July.

It was Mori's failure to give up his golf game when he learned that the trawler Ehime Maru had been sunk by the submarine that sparked a groundswell of criticism and prompted members of his own coalition to call for his head.

That was in contrast to the early reaction by Washington.

President George W. Bush's new administration -- already targeting tighter ties with Tokyo -- was quick to apologize.

"The U.S. side took a very serious, sincere attitude. This was seriously appreciated by the Japanese people," said former diplomat Satoshi Morimoto.

"But I'm ashamed of the Japanese side."

Japan's leaders have since taken a sterner stance, complaining about Washington's failure to inform them promptly that civilians were on board the submarine, urging a thorough probe and pressing Washington to salvage the trawler.

Mori on Thursday deplored a report that the civilians distracted the submarine crew member responsible for tracking possible contact with other ships, but added that Japan should not "seek a solution in haste".

Critics were unimpressed.

"He's saying it's 'deplorable' but it isn't strong enough. It still looks as if they (the Japanese government) are playing around," said Muneyuki Shindo, political science professor at Tokyo's Rikkyo University.

Rising in tandem with the unfolding submarine saga are developments on Okinawa, the southern Japanese island which is host to the bulk of the U.S. military presence in Japan.

Ever-present Okinawan resentment of what islanders see as their unfair share of the burden for the U.S.-Japan defense alliance has been rekindled by the e-mail episode and other incidents, such as the arrest of a U.S. Marine accused of arson.

On Thursday, Okinawa Governor Keiichi Inamine -- not usually an outspoken critic of the U.S. bases -- said for the first time that he would seek a reduction in the number of U.S. troops stationed in Okinawa.

Okinawa is home to some 25,000 U.S. military personnel, about half the total in Japan.

Emotions fanned by the submarine accident could transform into a broader antipathy to American troops in general -- an outcome Japan's government is loath to see, experts said.

"The government wants to minimize the impact," Morimoto said.

But with its own credibility in tatters, analysts question whether current leaders could contain the fallout if, for example, the public proves unhappy with a Navy court of inquiry's decision on whether to discipline three Greeneville officers.

A government misstep could give right-wing politicians such as outspoken populist Shintaro Ishihara an opening to boost his support -- something even anti-U.S. base activists worry about.

"Anti-U.S. forces and anti-U.S. sentiment are different. We don't want the recent incidents to lead to anti-U.S. sentiment and to result in nationalism and right-wing moves," said one activist among a small group demonstrating in Tokyo on Thursday to demand that the U.S. forces go home.

Ishihara, a novelist and former member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, was elected governor of Tokyo in 1999 in a landslide by voters who liked his straight talk and talent for thumbing his nose at the political establishment.

He is well-known for his impatience with Japan's reliance on the United States for its defense and has questioned America's commitment to the two nations' mutual defense pact.

"It could be great timing for Ishihara to whip up anti- American sentiment," Shindo said. "That's why we need to change the prime minister as soon as possible."