Political tension, confusion in Myanmar

Soe Myint, New Delhi

Myanmar's powerful military intelligence chief and Prime Minister Gen. Khin Nyunt who was fired last Tuesday by the ruling military regime, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), has been accused of corruption by the new foreign minister Nyan Win.

The earlier official announcement , signed by Senior General Than Shwe, head of the SPDC who is to visit India next week, said that Khin Nyunt was "permitted to retire" for "health reasons".

The latest political shake up within the military junta came a few days after the arrest of about two hundred officers in Muse town on the China-Myanmar border, who were under Khin Nyunt's command, on charges of corruption and gold smuggling.

With the removal of Khin Nyunt from the military establishment, the long-standing power struggle within the Burmese military hierarchy between Than Shwe and his deputy Maung Aye on one side and the so-called "moderate" Khin Nyunt has ended.

The question remains however is whether the two top leaders of SPDC can handle the most serious challenge that the regime has faced since it came to power in 1988.

Gen. Khin Nyunt is believed to have been at least willing to talk with the opposition democratic forces and Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD) while the hardliners in the military regime like Senior General Than Shwe and General Maung Aye do not bother about any such "political dialogue".

Sources in Rangoon said Khin Nyunt, 64, has been under house arrest since last Tuesday and his son, Ye Naing Win, the owner of Myanmar's sole internet service provider, Bagan Cybertech and other properties such as CP Livestock is also under detention.

The politics surrounding the dramatic removal of Khin Nyunt is underlined by the selection of his replacement, Lt. Gen. Soe Win. Soe Win is accused of masterminding the May 30 "Depayin Massacre" last year, in which at least 70 supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi were killed by the military-backed thugs in upper Myanmar. Aung San Suu Kyi and her deputy U Tin Oo have been under house arrest since then.

The first military coup in Myanmar, then Burma, took place in 1962 when Gen. U Ne Win and a group of military officers ousted Premier U Nu, a friend of Jawaharlal Nehru, and since have ruled the country with ruthlessness.

The economy has sunk to levels verging on bankruptcy and, in 1987, the United Nations has conferred its "least-developed nation" status on what was once South East Asia's rice-bowl nation.

With an army of over 400,000 soldiers, the military controls every aspect of life including business. There has been infighting and conflicts between the generals for their business and power interests.

There are two specific challenging issues before the present leadership. The National Convention, which was a part of so- called Khin Nyunt's "Road Map to Democracy", when he became Prime Minister in August 2003, is in recess. The military regime will find difficulties in resuming the Convention in the near future.

Another challenging issue is the ethnic armed organizations, which have fought a civil war for more than four decades with Yangon. Khin Nyunt was the main architect of these cease-fires and the junta says it is in cease-fire with 17 armed organizations.

Khin Nyunt had taken personal initiatives to get these armed organizations into a legal framework and with his disappearance, the future of cease-fire agreements between the junta and the armed groups has become uncertain.

More importantly, with the recent changes in high-level positions of the regime (the regime now has new faces including the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, the deputy Foreign Minister), Myanmar's chances for democratization and return to a civilian rule are bleaker than before.

At present, there is no one to challenge Senior General Than Shwe within the military and he does not even allow his colleagues to mention the name of Suu Kyi at cabinet meetings. And India will roll out red-carpet welcome for him on Oct. 25 in New Delhi.

The writer is a Myanmarese exile and journalist.