Political signposts to gauge new RI govt

Political signposts to gauge new RI govt

Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, Jakarta

Welcome to the presidential elections, Indonesian style.

In less than a month, either incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri
or her former chief security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
will be Indonesia's first directly elected president. This final
stage in a year of elections had earlier been predicted to be the
most contentious and tempestuous of the polls, exiting the
emotions given that it would directly pit the two leading
candidates, and personalities, against the other.

But the reality on the ground is that what people expected to
be a "bang" has turned out to be a "whimper" at best. Rather than
being treated to an Olympic effort by two fine political
athletes, boxing it out to decide who is the best among them, the
run up of this final round is something between a chess match and
a game of hide-and-seek.

Neither seems interested in confronting each other's policies,
and both seem more interested in appeasing coalition partners
rather than inspiring the actual voters.

One should not wholly blame Megawati or Susilo though. Like
everyone else in the country, they are novices at this "game".
But inexperience may not be the primary reason for the tedium.

Similarity of character, campaign platforms and lack of clear
policy alternatives have resulted in a choice of idols rather
than leaders.

Both candidates have similar political orientations and both,
unfortunately, have been linked to darker elements in society
including that of alleged corruption. The most likely difference
is in leadership-style, with Susilo likely to be more publicly
responsive to Megawati's established aloofness.

Whomever wins on Sept. 20, however, there is unlikely to be a
change in the fundamental nature of the nationalist-secular
character of the Indonesian state. Both are staunch nationalists
and steadfast in their conviction to the traditional icons of
unity, the Pancasila ideology and territorial integrity.

In the context of democratic consolidation, there are three
signposts, which should be watched to determine the sway and the
effectiveness of the new government.

Speculating about their stance on these key issues may also
help identify differences between the two candidates' rather
innocuous campaign platforms.

The first signpost to watch is how the new president manages
executive-legislative relations.

The coming president will have to face a powerful but
fractious parliament in which no single party occupies even a
quarter of the House of Representative seats.

Legislative liaison is a new art for politicians. One which is
imperative for the executive to quickly adept to smoothen the
running of government.

This is not a new phenomenon in politics and our new executive
would do well to learn how American presidents, for example,
survive in the Oval Office despite having only minority support
in Congress. Former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid learned
this lesson the hard way. His belligerence before the House and
negligence in garnering a strong lobby resulted in his dismissal.

The advent of a strong legislature is not something to pout
over, it is part of the inherent system of checks and balances in
which the democratic system is based. There are ways and means
for the president to sway the legislature, it is just a question
of strategy and commitment.

Susilo, in particular, may find it difficult to deal with
legislature given that his party (the Democratic Party) has just
57 of the 550 seats in the House.

The question is how much Susilo -- if elected -- will
eventually have to compromise to accommodate a coalition of
interests to support his policies which could ultimately result
in "policies of political expedience".

Megawati, by coalescing with major political powers such as
Golkar, can theoretically form a stronger coalition accounting
for over half the seats in the legislature.

But there is no guarantee that such loose coalitions will last
especially in the latter years of the administration which would
see political parties start to fight for their respective
interests in anticipation of the next election.

The second signpost we should look out for is how the new
president deals with freedom of expression and freedom of the
press. These freedoms acquired after the resignation of Soeharto
have been a key driver in the vibrancy of Indonesia's democracy.

Both candidates have shown strong tendencies to begin imposing
limitations by exploiting the shock of the general public at
being exposed to the unaccustomed vivaciousness of the media.
Already we have seen individuals jailed for burning effigies of
the president and mainstream publications sued, not for
misreporting facts, but for their editorial opinion.

The willingness to remain open to public input and criticism
is preliminary indicator of the candidates "democratic
tendencies". It will further help shape the exuberance of
pluralistic expression in our future democracy.

The third marker will be the new president's attitude towards
regional autonomy and separatism in the provinces. The "Big Bang"
approach of decentralization has resulted in various conflicts of
interest between provinces and, according to many, decentralized
corruption and local power brokers.

Megawati has shown her distinct distrust of the devolution of
authority to the provinces, regarding it as decentralization run
amok, while Yudhoyono fears it will become a threat to national
unity.

There is no doubt that decentralization in its formative years
has been a mess. But many agreed that it is needed to redress the
economic imbalances of the past three decades and allow
egalitarian practices to flourish at the very lowest levels. The
fear with either one of the candidates coming to power, is the
slow imposition of creeping re-centralization which would in
effect result in the re-domination of Jakarta politics over the
archipelago.

Neither Susilo nor Megawati have shown little compromise over
separatist sentiments, and choose to resort to coercive measures
to resolve the issue rather than engage in a sustained dialog.

There are of course other key drivers that could be included
in this list. However our assessment of the attitudes Megawati
and Susilo have to these three core issues will go a long way to
helping us successfully discriminate between these two potential
presidents.

The author is a staff writer with The Jakarta Post.