Political signposts to gauge new RI govt

Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, Jakarta

Welcome to the presidential elections, Indonesian style.

In less than a month, either incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri or her former chief security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will be Indonesia's first directly elected president. This final stage in a year of elections had earlier been predicted to be the most contentious and tempestuous of the polls, exiting the emotions given that it would directly pit the two leading candidates, and personalities, against the other.

But the reality on the ground is that what people expected to be a "bang" has turned out to be a "whimper" at best. Rather than being treated to an Olympic effort by two fine political athletes, boxing it out to decide who is the best among them, the run up of this final round is something between a chess match and a game of hide-and-seek.

Neither seems interested in confronting each other's policies, and both seem more interested in appeasing coalition partners rather than inspiring the actual voters.

One should not wholly blame Megawati or Susilo though. Like everyone else in the country, they are novices at this "game". But inexperience may not be the primary reason for the tedium.

Similarity of character, campaign platforms and lack of clear policy alternatives have resulted in a choice of idols rather than leaders.

Both candidates have similar political orientations and both, unfortunately, have been linked to darker elements in society including that of alleged corruption. The most likely difference is in leadership-style, with Susilo likely to be more publicly responsive to Megawati's established aloofness.

Whomever wins on Sept. 20, however, there is unlikely to be a change in the fundamental nature of the nationalist-secular character of the Indonesian state. Both are staunch nationalists and steadfast in their conviction to the traditional icons of unity, the Pancasila ideology and territorial integrity.

In the context of democratic consolidation, there are three signposts, which should be watched to determine the sway and the effectiveness of the new government.

Speculating about their stance on these key issues may also help identify differences between the two candidates' rather innocuous campaign platforms.

The first signpost to watch is how the new president manages executive-legislative relations.

The coming president will have to face a powerful but fractious parliament in which no single party occupies even a quarter of the House of Representative seats.

Legislative liaison is a new art for politicians. One which is imperative for the executive to quickly adept to smoothen the running of government.

This is not a new phenomenon in politics and our new executive would do well to learn how American presidents, for example, survive in the Oval Office despite having only minority support in Congress. Former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid learned this lesson the hard way. His belligerence before the House and negligence in garnering a strong lobby resulted in his dismissal.

The advent of a strong legislature is not something to pout over, it is part of the inherent system of checks and balances in which the democratic system is based. There are ways and means for the president to sway the legislature, it is just a question of strategy and commitment.

Susilo, in particular, may find it difficult to deal with legislature given that his party (the Democratic Party) has just 57 of the 550 seats in the House.

The question is how much Susilo -- if elected -- will eventually have to compromise to accommodate a coalition of interests to support his policies which could ultimately result in "policies of political expedience".

Megawati, by coalescing with major political powers such as Golkar, can theoretically form a stronger coalition accounting for over half the seats in the legislature.

But there is no guarantee that such loose coalitions will last especially in the latter years of the administration which would see political parties start to fight for their respective interests in anticipation of the next election.

The second signpost we should look out for is how the new president deals with freedom of expression and freedom of the press. These freedoms acquired after the resignation of Soeharto have been a key driver in the vibrancy of Indonesia's democracy.

Both candidates have shown strong tendencies to begin imposing limitations by exploiting the shock of the general public at being exposed to the unaccustomed vivaciousness of the media. Already we have seen individuals jailed for burning effigies of the president and mainstream publications sued, not for misreporting facts, but for their editorial opinion.

The willingness to remain open to public input and criticism is preliminary indicator of the candidates "democratic tendencies". It will further help shape the exuberance of pluralistic expression in our future democracy.

The third marker will be the new president's attitude towards regional autonomy and separatism in the provinces. The "Big Bang" approach of decentralization has resulted in various conflicts of interest between provinces and, according to many, decentralized corruption and local power brokers.

Megawati has shown her distinct distrust of the devolution of authority to the provinces, regarding it as decentralization run amok, while Yudhoyono fears it will become a threat to national unity.

There is no doubt that decentralization in its formative years has been a mess. But many agreed that it is needed to redress the economic imbalances of the past three decades and allow egalitarian practices to flourish at the very lowest levels. The fear with either one of the candidates coming to power, is the slow imposition of creeping re-centralization which would in effect result in the re-domination of Jakarta politics over the archipelago.

Neither Susilo nor Megawati have shown little compromise over separatist sentiments, and choose to resort to coercive measures to resolve the issue rather than engage in a sustained dialog.

There are of course other key drivers that could be included in this list. However our assessment of the attitudes Megawati and Susilo have to these three core issues will go a long way to helping us successfully discriminate between these two potential presidents.

The author is a staff writer with The Jakarta Post.