Political scenarios for Akbar Tandjung

Political scenarios for Akbar Tandjung

Heny Setyowati, Center for Reform and Democracy Studies, Jakarta

The detention of Akbar Tandjung by the Attorney General's
Office has caused quite a stir. In some circles -- particularly
supporters of President Megawati Soekarnputri -- this is quite
worrying, as it may have political repercussions leading to
eventual attempts to shake up her presidency. More trouble can be
expected if the emotional reaction displayed by Golkar cadres is
allowed to spread further among the grassroots. In this case, we
may witness three political scenarios.

The first, as we have seen, has been a wave of protest rallies
supporting Akbar by Golkar cadres and his sympathizers. Other
protesters could well demand that Golkar further consolidate
itself by totally opposing Megawati's administration, and rally
for lower prices for daily necessities,

If this scenario takes shape outside Java, particularly in
Golkar Party strongholds, it cannot be treated lightly. This
would be likely if Golkar's leadership team and their cadres,
particularly those of the "outer islands" camps of Irian Jaya,
Maluku, Sulawesi and Kalimantan, who initially opposed Akbar,
steadfastly supported the detained Speaker of the House of
Representatives as their party chairman.

A second scenario would involve university students, demanding
law enforcement in Akbar's case -- and in the case of other
officials accused of corruption.

The second scenario will certainly pose a great challenge to
Megawati. If she can meet the demands of law enforcement for all
allegedly corrupt officials, she might last another term.
Otherwise, support for her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party
of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) will shrink.

The students' rallies would grow stronger if the intellectuals
joined them; and we would see massive demonstrations like the
ones in 1998, which marked Soeharto's ouster.

With the support of the legislature and national assembly,
this would be become a wave of support for Megawati in
eradicating corruption, collusion and nepotism.

The problem is that allegations that the legislators have also
enjoyed the fruits of corruption. Evidence of this are the
increasingly "nouveau riche" appearances of many legislators.

A third scenario would be the result of political and legal
orders to suspend Akbar's case on the grounds that it is too
risky for Megawati to have this case thoroughly settled.

If Akbar were proven guilty, the political turmoil would be
difficult to predict. This may pose a threat to all major
political parties, which would encounter difficulties in
maintaining or increasing their votes in the next elections.

Thus, any intention of setting up a special committee on
Buloggate II will never become reality because most in the House
oppose the idea.

This scenario would be very advantageous to all the parties
controlling the House and the Assembly, as they would continue to
be in accord with the Megawati-led administration. There would be
also be compromises in the establishment of a post-2004 election
administration. This seems hard to imagine. But it is always
possible, given that the political elite issue orders just as
they wish.

This third scenario would become reality only if, once again,
intellectuals, spearheaded by university students, remain cool-
headed as they are at present.

This means that, without pressure from university students,
every political or legal order can be carried out in accordance
with the wishes of the political elite in the House, the Assembly
and in the government.