Political scenarios for Akbar Tandjung

Heny Setyowati, Center for Reform and Democracy Studies, Jakarta

The detention of Akbar Tandjung by the Attorney General's Office has caused quite a stir. In some circles -- particularly supporters of President Megawati Soekarnputri -- this is quite worrying, as it may have political repercussions leading to eventual attempts to shake up her presidency. More trouble can be expected if the emotional reaction displayed by Golkar cadres is allowed to spread further among the grassroots. In this case, we may witness three political scenarios.

The first, as we have seen, has been a wave of protest rallies supporting Akbar by Golkar cadres and his sympathizers. Other protesters could well demand that Golkar further consolidate itself by totally opposing Megawati's administration, and rally for lower prices for daily necessities,

If this scenario takes shape outside Java, particularly in Golkar Party strongholds, it cannot be treated lightly. This would be likely if Golkar's leadership team and their cadres, particularly those of the "outer islands" camps of Irian Jaya, Maluku, Sulawesi and Kalimantan, who initially opposed Akbar, steadfastly supported the detained Speaker of the House of Representatives as their party chairman.

A second scenario would involve university students, demanding law enforcement in Akbar's case -- and in the case of other officials accused of corruption.

The second scenario will certainly pose a great challenge to Megawati. If she can meet the demands of law enforcement for all allegedly corrupt officials, she might last another term. Otherwise, support for her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) will shrink.

The students' rallies would grow stronger if the intellectuals joined them; and we would see massive demonstrations like the ones in 1998, which marked Soeharto's ouster.

With the support of the legislature and national assembly, this would be become a wave of support for Megawati in eradicating corruption, collusion and nepotism.

The problem is that allegations that the legislators have also enjoyed the fruits of corruption. Evidence of this are the increasingly "nouveau riche" appearances of many legislators.

A third scenario would be the result of political and legal orders to suspend Akbar's case on the grounds that it is too risky for Megawati to have this case thoroughly settled.

If Akbar were proven guilty, the political turmoil would be difficult to predict. This may pose a threat to all major political parties, which would encounter difficulties in maintaining or increasing their votes in the next elections.

Thus, any intention of setting up a special committee on Buloggate II will never become reality because most in the House oppose the idea.

This scenario would be very advantageous to all the parties controlling the House and the Assembly, as they would continue to be in accord with the Megawati-led administration. There would be also be compromises in the establishment of a post-2004 election administration. This seems hard to imagine. But it is always possible, given that the political elite issue orders just as they wish.

This third scenario would become reality only if, once again, intellectuals, spearheaded by university students, remain cool- headed as they are at present.

This means that, without pressure from university students, every political or legal order can be carried out in accordance with the wishes of the political elite in the House, the Assembly and in the government.