Political fallout from bird flu inevitable

Pana Janviroj, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

If the national election were to be held tomorrow, the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party's target of winning 400 seats would not materialize. Attempting to achieve even half of the-500- Parliament seats might be in danger of failure.

But, of course, there is no national election tomorrow -- it's scheduled for early next year. By then the voters might have forgotten about events surrounding the bird-flu epidemic in which the government has been accused of both a cover-up of cases and of sheer incompetence which put lives at risk. Suddenly, the hype about Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra emerging as a regional leader has also evaporated.

This tragedy does say a lot about the importance of establishing credibility through proper conduct in national and regional politics. Some of the prime minister's advisers must now be eating their words about the new politics and paradigms they thought they were pursuing.

They had ridiculed many mainstream policy frameworks including transparency, foreign assistance, reform, critical remarks and parliamentary checks and balances. But these now appear much more important than runaway economic growth, strong leadership and single-party government.

There are many risks for the world, the region, the nation and individuals. And local politics is not immune from them. If politics has indeed changed, as often claimed by senior members of Thai Rak Thai, then the bird-flu tragedy will reverberate in a political downside -- just as any success would entail an upside gain for more votes and more power for the party.

The handling of the bird-flu episode demands a full and independent investigation into the policies and conduct of both the Agriculture Ministry and the Public Health Ministry. This is to ensure fair judgment on their claims of innocence to accusations of a cover-up on the outbreak of the bird flu and the competency of their management of the spread of the disease which is believed to started in November.

A lingering question also remains about what the prime minister was told, and when, and by whom, and did he act rightly or wrongly? Most importantly, there is a lesson to be learned: Why the system failed badly when previously the country had been known to have reasonable disease control mechanisms. The government enjoyed credibility even if the system was far from perfect.

It will be hard to avoid political casualties from this saga. If new politics demands performance, then even if there was no cover-up, there was certainly incompetence and bad judgment. The immediate political casualty might be Deputy Agriculture Minister Newin Chidchob (Chat Thai Party) who was abruptly put in charge of the Livestock Department. He consistently denied the existence of bird flu right up to the point when the Public Health Ministry disclosed the first bird-flu patient.

All evidence so far points to the fact that the Livestock Department had early knowledge of the disease, but failed to ring the alarm bell. The sole reason that the lab tests were not conclusive is unacceptable to the public because this authority has the mandate to protect public welfare and address all issues related to domestic animals. It is there to manage health and economic risks. It does not exist only to take directives from Government House.

But the main casualty will probably be Agriculture Minister Somsak Thepsuthin, who until recently was in charge of the Livestock Department. Farmers have been vocally critical of him because chickens and other birds had been dying left, right and center since the end of last year, and yet ministry officials remained tight-lipped.

It is also hard to believe that Somsak did not have intimate knowledge of the bird-flu issue given that his vice minister is Veerachai Virameetheekul, a son-in-law of Dhanin Chearavanont, chairman of CP Group. The company is not just one of the country's but one of the region's largest exporters of chicken and the largest buyer of poultry from contracted farmers.

Another concern centers on the role of the Public Health Ministry headed by Sudarat Keyuraphan. Public disclosure of people affected by bird flu did not take place until last week, while people had previously been brought into hospitals suffering from illness after coming into contact with chicken farms. The excuse was that tests did not prove conclusive.

But then that is precisely the responsibility of the ministry, which must expect the worst and warn the public of the possible perils. The mandate of the health authorities is not to wait for things to happen but to raise an early alarm so that individuals can take protective measures.

The long term credibility of Thailand -- previously known for its openness and good record of disease prevention -- has been hurt. It's hard to see how Prime Minister Thaksin can avoid political casualties. If he does not act, then politics can been seen to have changed to a tyranny of the majority.