Political factors to reign again in stock mart: Analyst
Political factors to reign again in stock mart: Analyst
JAKARTA (JP): Trading on the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) will
be dictated by the domestic political situation this week, with
investors fearing that instability could arise during the
President's two-week overseas trip, according to securities
analysts.
They said lingering fears of a military coup and continued
sectarian violence in Maluku would steal a great portion of
investors' attention this week, thus weighing negatively on JSX
trading.
President Abdurrahman Wahid, or Gus Dur as he is popularly
called, left Jakarta on Friday to visit 13 European and Asian
countries, despite rumors that a group of military officers were
trying to take over the government. However, the rumors later
died down.
Meanwhile, fresh violence erupted in Central Maluku for a few
days late last week, leaving 17 people dead and several injured.
Maluku has been hit by clashes between Muslims and Christians
since mid-January last year. More than 2,000 people have died and
hundreds of thousands more have fled their homes.
"The market was not good last week due to political concerns,
it will be the same this week," one analyst said over the
weekend.
Nevertheless, the Consultative Group on Indonesia's planned
meeting in Jakarta on Tuesday and Wednesday, to discuss the
government's proposal for new loans to cover its 2000 budget
deficit, would likely give positive impact on the market.
Viewing the market more optimistically, Budi Ruseno from
Bhakti Investama said there were unpleasant rumors leading up to
Gus Dur's absence, but when such rumors prove wrong the market
this week would be bullish.
"There have been mixed news, political and fundamental ones,
about a lot of things at least for the past week," Budi said.
He said rumors about a military coup, even though they had
proved baseless, remained to be some concern to some investors.
Besides the rumors, corporate announcements and takeover news
also triggered active trading of shares in several publicly
listed companies last week. Budi believed such information would
continue to affect trading of second-layer stocks.
He said the swift change of information about the fundamentals
of a number of shares traded on the JSX boosted market liquidity.
Meanwhile the rupiah, currency dealers said, would also be
affected by concerns over Gus Dur's trip abroad this week.
They said lingering fears of a military coup had made them
uneasy holding rupiah and to some extent would continue to do so.
The JSX composite index decreased by 4.5 percent to close at
634.66 points last week, from 664.69 the previous week.
Daily average transaction value dropped to Rp 1.12 trillion
last week, compared to Rp 1.97 trillion the previous week.
The daily average turnover was down slightly to 1.35 billion
shares last week from 1.33 billion shares the previous week.
Last week's top gainers were PT Asuransi Ramayana, whose
shares increased by 56.52 percent, PT Transindo Multi Prima by
45.66 percent and PT Multipolar by 20 percent.
The week's big losers were PT Asuransi Harta Aman Pratama,
whose shares fell by 33.33 percent, PT Clipan Finance Indonesia
by 27.03 percent and PT Sumi Indo Kabel by 25.71 percent.
The top brokerage firms by transaction value were PT Danareksa
Sekuritas with Rp 491.42 billion in transactions, PT Trimegah
Securindolestari with Rp 418.11 billion and PT Asjaya Indosurya
Securities with Rp 391.06 billion.
The rupiah depreciated 1.6 percent to close the week at 7,400
against the U.S. dollar, compared to its 7,280 close the previous
week. (udi)