Political crisis: Is compromise still possible?

Political crisis: Is compromise still possible?

As meetings go on in the search for crucial decisions,
political analyst J. Soedjati Djiwandono asks whether the leaders
will indeed come to their senses.

JAKARTA (JP): To escape from the present political impasse, a
compromise among political leaders remains the only possible way
out short of the dreaded violent conflicts between opposing
groups that reflect the bickering among the political elite.

But time is running out. The plenary session of the House of
Representatives (DPR) is set for May 30. With no substantial
compromise by that date, it seems certain that a special session
of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) will be on the
agenda.

It is to be noted, however, that it would take several weeks
for an MPR special session to be convened after a House motion
requesting one. So as far as President Abdurrahman Wahid is
concerned, he would still have a chance to avoid impeachment and
thereby save his neck and save face.

Issuing an emergency decree so as to avoid impeachment would
be digging his own grave, leading the nation to the verge of
collapse. He could come to his senses and decide to resign at the
last minute, in which case Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri,
for better or for worse, would take over.

In view of the high improbability of such a scenario, however,
the President may instead decide to transfer presidential powers
to the Vice President, while he would remain as head of sate, a
figurehead, to be precise. And the MPR would be able to entrench
the transfer in a decree.

If that should be the case, then the ball would be in Vice
President Megawati's court. Would she play it right? Would she
accept that arrangement, no matter how big a challenge it might
be to her competence? That, apparently, is still a big question
mark.

Two statements, at least, made recently by Megawati may raise
doubts about her willingness to compromise. First, she has
maintained that an early election -- though it seems to be the
fairest solution -- would not solve the deadlock.

Second, reminding her supporters in the Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), she has emphasized what she
calls the "message of the PDI Perjuangan congress in Bali", that
is, that the party congress nominated her to be president. She
said that personally she did not entertain an ambition to be
president, but she was determined to adhere to that message.

Whether she was honest about it or whether her remark was a
reflection of some degree of hypocrisy, only she herself knows.
No one has the right to judge. What is wrong in anyone having an
ambition to be president in a democracy, anyway? If she did not
have any desire to be president, she could have turned down the
nomination.

One cannot but conclude that for Megawati, to be president
seems to be a question of now or never. The resignation or
impeachment of President Abdurrahman would probably her only sure
chance to be president. An early election would be no guarantee.

One important reason that PDI Perjuangan won the largest
number of votes in the 1999 election may have been the fact that
Megawati was a rallying point for opposition against the New
Order regime; that she was a symbol of victimization by the New
Order's oppression and persecution.

Most probably, PDI Perjuangan can no longer count on that kind
of image for victory in the next election. It would be an
illusion if it did.

A compromise is the only solution for the present political
deadlock, and that seems a certainty. And a compromise can only
be reached by a give-and-take approach by all concerned.
Interestingly, by the way, many Indonesians, including, or
perhaps notably, politicians, often refer to the principle of
"take-and-give".

One would wonder if it reflects their mentality -- take first,
as much as possible, and only then, possibly, give away as little
as possible!

Indeed, who would have thought, that the political bickering
now seems to have crystallized and pivoted on the President and
Vice President as the fulcrums. Any compromise would be focused
on these two leaders.

The present crisis has its blessing for them. It provides them
with a rare but golden opportunity to prove their statesmanship
and their patriotism. How will they play their cards, to save the
nation from violently disintegrating and thus saving the reform
process toward a better, more democratic society?

The whole nation is anxiously waiting.