Political crisis: Is compromise still possible?

As meetings go on in the search for crucial decisions, political analyst J. Soedjati Djiwandono asks whether the leaders will indeed come to their senses.

JAKARTA (JP): To escape from the present political impasse, a compromise among political leaders remains the only possible way out short of the dreaded violent conflicts between opposing groups that reflect the bickering among the political elite.

But time is running out. The plenary session of the House of Representatives (DPR) is set for May 30. With no substantial compromise by that date, it seems certain that a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) will be on the agenda.

It is to be noted, however, that it would take several weeks for an MPR special session to be convened after a House motion requesting one. So as far as President Abdurrahman Wahid is concerned, he would still have a chance to avoid impeachment and thereby save his neck and save face.

Issuing an emergency decree so as to avoid impeachment would be digging his own grave, leading the nation to the verge of collapse. He could come to his senses and decide to resign at the last minute, in which case Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, for better or for worse, would take over.

In view of the high improbability of such a scenario, however, the President may instead decide to transfer presidential powers to the Vice President, while he would remain as head of sate, a figurehead, to be precise. And the MPR would be able to entrench the transfer in a decree.

If that should be the case, then the ball would be in Vice President Megawati's court. Would she play it right? Would she accept that arrangement, no matter how big a challenge it might be to her competence? That, apparently, is still a big question mark.

Two statements, at least, made recently by Megawati may raise doubts about her willingness to compromise. First, she has maintained that an early election -- though it seems to be the fairest solution -- would not solve the deadlock.

Second, reminding her supporters in the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), she has emphasized what she calls the "message of the PDI Perjuangan congress in Bali", that is, that the party congress nominated her to be president. She said that personally she did not entertain an ambition to be president, but she was determined to adhere to that message.

Whether she was honest about it or whether her remark was a reflection of some degree of hypocrisy, only she herself knows. No one has the right to judge. What is wrong in anyone having an ambition to be president in a democracy, anyway? If she did not have any desire to be president, she could have turned down the nomination.

One cannot but conclude that for Megawati, to be president seems to be a question of now or never. The resignation or impeachment of President Abdurrahman would probably her only sure chance to be president. An early election would be no guarantee.

One important reason that PDI Perjuangan won the largest number of votes in the 1999 election may have been the fact that Megawati was a rallying point for opposition against the New Order regime; that she was a symbol of victimization by the New Order's oppression and persecution.

Most probably, PDI Perjuangan can no longer count on that kind of image for victory in the next election. It would be an illusion if it did.

A compromise is the only solution for the present political deadlock, and that seems a certainty. And a compromise can only be reached by a give-and-take approach by all concerned. Interestingly, by the way, many Indonesians, including, or perhaps notably, politicians, often refer to the principle of "take-and-give".

One would wonder if it reflects their mentality -- take first, as much as possible, and only then, possibly, give away as little as possible!

Indeed, who would have thought, that the political bickering now seems to have crystallized and pivoted on the President and Vice President as the fulcrums. Any compromise would be focused on these two leaders.

The present crisis has its blessing for them. It provides them with a rare but golden opportunity to prove their statesmanship and their patriotism. How will they play their cards, to save the nation from violently disintegrating and thus saving the reform process toward a better, more democratic society?

The whole nation is anxiously waiting.