Political conflicts to escalate next year: Observers

Political conflicts to escalate next year: Observers

JAKARTA (JP): Political tension, particularly between
legislative and executive bodies, is expected to escalate next
year rising the specter of instability, observers and politicians
said on Wednesday.

This situation is compounded by talk of an impending Cabinet
reshuffle at the beginning of the year.

Speaking at a seminar on regional autonomy in Surabaya, House
of Representatives Speaker Akbar Tandjung pointed to several
indications such as the results of a House inquiry on financial
scandals allegedly relating to the President and the annual
session in August to evaluate the president's performance.

"If Gus Dur remains unresponsive to the House's suggestions,
the situation might worsen," Akbar remarked.

The president's policies which have yet to aid economic
recovery will also add to political tension, Akbar added.

"The situation will become even worse because the president's
administrative management is not effective," he remarked in the
Golkar sponsored seminar.

Political observer Andi A. Mallarangeng further noted that
insufficient preparations to the implementation of regional
autonomy as of Jan. 1 would complicate matters.

Andi believes the central government has been half-hearted in
its steps to implement regional autonomy.

Dominant

Meanwhile in Jakarta, in a discussion organized by the Forum
of Sabang-Merauke Discussion (Forsam), political observer Fachry
Ali and Mohammad Sobary, chief editor of the Antara news agency,
were divided as to the role of a legislature which is growing
more powerful.

Sobary argued that the government could not function
effectively due to the House's dominant power.

"The government has been under fire without being given an
adequate chance to do its task and to solve major problems
inherited from the former repressive New Order regime. Meanwhile,
the House has focused on its control function and ignored its
other responsibilities," he said.

Sobary said the political elite and the public were trapped in
reform euphoria and the law has not been attributed with enough
respect, causing prolonged political instability.

He predicted the political situation would remain heated
because of disharmony between the two institutions.

He cited for example the House's investigation into the Bulog
and Brunei scandals which have been exercised with the assumption
that the president is involved.

Fachry said he could understand the House's dominant power in
the transition period because the legislative body had been
abused by the former regime for more than three decades.

"The nation is in transition towards democracy and the
impression that the House is powerful is normal in a transitional
situation where it is seeking to assert its identity," he said.

Fachry, also director of the Institute for Development of
Business Ethics, said he was optimistic that the House and
executive body would find a new relationship in the exercise of
checks and balances of power.

Reshuffle

Separately, several politicians expressed exasperation at the
likelihood of a Cabinet reshuffle early in the year.

The United Development Party (PPP)'s secretary-general Ali
Marwan Hanan said a reshuffle would only weaken the president's
credibility.

"The problem is not with the ministers, but with the
president's administrative management," Ali, who is also a member
of the House's Commission II for Domestic and Legal Affairs, said
on Wednesday.

He pointed out that it was really only a political move "to
clearly separate those who back the government and the
opposition."

Meanwhile Crescent and Star Party (PBB) secretary-general M.S.
Ka'ban said a Cabinet reshuffle would only accelerate the
failures of Abdurrahman's administration.

"The priority is not to change ministers, but for the
president to resign," Ka'ban said.

PPP's chairman Hamzah Haz also said a reshuffle was not a wise
solution to the government's poor performance.

"There is no problem with the current cabinet. The main
problem is the president himself and his controversial
management," he said.

Hamzah said the government has not achieved any progress
during the past year as the number of jobless has reached 38
million and the number of school dropouts has reached six
million. (jun/rms)