Political conflicts to escalate next year: Observers

JAKARTA (JP): Political tension, particularly between legislative and executive bodies, is expected to escalate next year rising the specter of instability, observers and politicians said on Wednesday.

This situation is compounded by talk of an impending Cabinet reshuffle at the beginning of the year.

Speaking at a seminar on regional autonomy in Surabaya, House of Representatives Speaker Akbar Tandjung pointed to several indications such as the results of a House inquiry on financial scandals allegedly relating to the President and the annual session in August to evaluate the president's performance.

"If Gus Dur remains unresponsive to the House's suggestions, the situation might worsen," Akbar remarked.

The president's policies which have yet to aid economic recovery will also add to political tension, Akbar added.

"The situation will become even worse because the president's administrative management is not effective," he remarked in the Golkar sponsored seminar.

Political observer Andi A. Mallarangeng further noted that insufficient preparations to the implementation of regional autonomy as of Jan. 1 would complicate matters.

Andi believes the central government has been half-hearted in its steps to implement regional autonomy.

Dominant

Meanwhile in Jakarta, in a discussion organized by the Forum of Sabang-Merauke Discussion (Forsam), political observer Fachry Ali and Mohammad Sobary, chief editor of the Antara news agency, were divided as to the role of a legislature which is growing more powerful.

Sobary argued that the government could not function effectively due to the House's dominant power.

"The government has been under fire without being given an adequate chance to do its task and to solve major problems inherited from the former repressive New Order regime. Meanwhile, the House has focused on its control function and ignored its other responsibilities," he said.

Sobary said the political elite and the public were trapped in reform euphoria and the law has not been attributed with enough respect, causing prolonged political instability.

He predicted the political situation would remain heated because of disharmony between the two institutions.

He cited for example the House's investigation into the Bulog and Brunei scandals which have been exercised with the assumption that the president is involved.

Fachry said he could understand the House's dominant power in the transition period because the legislative body had been abused by the former regime for more than three decades.

"The nation is in transition towards democracy and the impression that the House is powerful is normal in a transitional situation where it is seeking to assert its identity," he said.

Fachry, also director of the Institute for Development of Business Ethics, said he was optimistic that the House and executive body would find a new relationship in the exercise of checks and balances of power.

Reshuffle

Separately, several politicians expressed exasperation at the likelihood of a Cabinet reshuffle early in the year.

The United Development Party (PPP)'s secretary-general Ali Marwan Hanan said a reshuffle would only weaken the president's credibility.

"The problem is not with the ministers, but with the president's administrative management," Ali, who is also a member of the House's Commission II for Domestic and Legal Affairs, said on Wednesday.

He pointed out that it was really only a political move "to clearly separate those who back the government and the opposition."

Meanwhile Crescent and Star Party (PBB) secretary-general M.S. Ka'ban said a Cabinet reshuffle would only accelerate the failures of Abdurrahman's administration.

"The priority is not to change ministers, but for the president to resign," Ka'ban said.

PPP's chairman Hamzah Haz also said a reshuffle was not a wise solution to the government's poor performance.

"There is no problem with the current cabinet. The main problem is the president himself and his controversial management," he said.

Hamzah said the government has not achieved any progress during the past year as the number of jobless has reached 38 million and the number of school dropouts has reached six million. (jun/rms)