Political change can only be initiated from the top

By Matias Sinaga

SURABAYA (JP): In his address to Golkar last week, President Soeharto asked the ruling political grouping to find out whether the people really supported his renomination for the 1998/2003 presidential term.

Soeharto said he would willingly step aside if the people chose another candidate.

This reminds me of a news item carried by this newspaper on Aug. 25, 1997 about the national succession.

Marzuki Darusman, a former legislator, said in a discussion that discourse on succession should start and not be treated as politically taboo.

A few days later Amien Rais, chairman of the influential Muhammadyah Moslem organization, offered himself as the next presidential candidate.

In that line the Surabaya-based newspaper Surya carried two news items on Aug. 28, 1997. One was Tourism, Post and Telecommunications Minister Joop Ave saying that anyone can criticize a leader. The second was Transmigration Minister Siswono Yudohusodo suggesting that the presidential term should be limited.

Hearing these statements, one might ask, is change imminent?

The desire for change has never been so great. It is reflected by seemingly endless denunciation of the status quo in articles, discussions and protests.

The same went with the general elections in May. Political campaigns incessantly aired the idea of change. It came up in different aspects of the campaign including monologues, dialogues or rallies.

One of the political organizations, the Moslem-oriented United Development Party, even picked it up as its main campaign theme. During the last round of its campaign, thousands of TV viewers were mesmerized by the party chairman's address which critically highlighted the need for change.

The very theme helped the party to pocket many votes.

Are we now on the verge of change?

Although desires and pressure toward change have become stronger and more widespread, it is too early and naive to conclude simply from all this rhetoric that change is on the way.

There are at least three characteristics which underlie change.

First, change is something initiated. It does not come along by itself without anyone taking the initiative to strive for it.

To initiate change, people need to struggle and to work at it tirelessly. Such people have started to emerge, but as their number and power is limited, their voices and endeavors are negligible. Their voices are also heard only once in a while and their seriousness is questionable.

Second, change comes and starts from above. It is a top-down movement. This means that however strong the current or effort is, change will not come if the elite does not want it to.

The problem then lies here. Those at the top do not seem to have the same perspective, or the same perception and feeling towards change.

They are and have been well-established and satisfied with the current situation. They have what is called "power" and things inherent to it. In fact, change is seen as a threat and the revoking of the power, status or position they are holding.

Change is certainly a big issue. Because of this, it has to be initiated and overseen by people or groups of people who are directly involved in the nation's problems or those who dedicate their lives to the nation's interests. These people are called politicians, leaders or decision makers.

Third, change has to come from inside national institutions and political organizations like the House of Representatives, the People's Consultative Assembly, the United Development Party and the presidency.

However, judging from the composition of the newly-inducted members of the first two institutions, change is something improbable and remains a dream.

They are dominated by bureaucrats and their relatives or politically-connected people preoccupied with their businesses and are likely to far from represent the people.

Because of this, people then may turn to the United Development Party as an organization or through its factions in the House and Assembly. People are waiting to see if it follows through with its campaign promises to initiate and strive for change.

Here its credibility as a political organization will be tested. Considering their strength in the House and Assembly, however, change is unlikely to come from this organization either.

People's only hope then resides in the next president. He or she is the only individual who could bring about change and turn it into reality.

That answers why Amien Rais' nomination was refreshing for many people. The question now is, will he be the long awaited Mr. X? Will he be the individual who paves the way for the coming reform? Or will he be simply a ripple in the system of Indonesian politics? Only heaven knows.

The writer is a teacher based in Surabaya.