Political ceteribus paribus and the national leadership

By Hermawan Sulistyo

JAKARTA (JP): A political scenario is based on political realities, subject to a condition that everything outside politics remains constant. This condition could be termed political ceteris paribus, a concept borrowed from economics, referring to a linear projection of events outside the focus of study.

In a previous article about the increasing role of the next vice president, No room for political utopia in the Jan. 8 edition of The Jakarta Post, I stated the conditions necessary to form a political scenario around this question.

My scenario assumed that Soeharto would enter his seventh consecutive term in office. Declining health would then force him to devolve greater authority to the vice president, who would use the term as an internship, prior to assuming a presidential seat himself. Soeharto would retain the formal title of president, at the head of a decision-making process resembling a constitutional monarchy, such as that seen in Thailand.

The three main conditions embodied in the assumption of political ceteris paribus leading to the enactment of this scenario are as follows.

First, President Soeharto continues his term, despite his allegedly poor health. Second, there are no political pressures strong enough to push him aside. Third, the country faces no serious economic problems. Under such conditions, my scenario is feasible and applicable.

In a response to these arguments, Leadership change not a utopia in the Jan. 14 edition of The Jakarta Post, Dr. Ikrar Nusa Bhakti refers to political ceteris paribus as the basic condition required to realize his political hope of electing a new president.

He misunderstands my arguments. I was discussing the key players in a political system and assuming all other factors are insignificant, whereas Ikrar presents these "insignificant factors" as the main issue. He does not treat the ceteris paribus condition as a rigid concept. Instead, he views it as dynamic and thus it can be changed.

Following Ikrar's arguments, I agree that the political environment should be viewed as dynamic. However, I draw upon recent political developments, not present when our debate started, to further my argument.

President Soeharto's decision to run for another term, and Golkar's stated criteria for the next vice president, enhance the feasibility of my scenario. Yet Ikrar speculates about a changing political environment, with a peaceful transition of authority in the March General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

I have reflected on the possibility that Soeharto may step down in March. However, the first condition, that Soeharto will stand for a further term in office, has so far applied. The second condition, that there are no political pressures strong enough to push Soeharto aside, also looks increasingly realistic.

It appears that no strong opposition to Soeharto's candidacy exists, despite evidence of discontentment manifesting itself in increasing demands for political reform.

The two most outspoken opposition leaders, Dr. Amien Rais and Megawati, are not tied together on the same political platform. Gus Dur has serious health problems and his traditional Moslem following is divided. The majority of NGOs, students and other political activists are also fragmented.

Nevertheless, this fragmented opposition has generated a growing number of petitions and demonstrations aimed at preventing Soeharto's renomination as president. These developments have forced me to have second thoughts about the applicability of the scenario.

The third condition, assuming economic stability, looks increasingly unrealistic. Difficulties in meeting this condition are compounded by the lack of experience which the administration has in dealing with a crisis of this nature.

There is a danger of post-Ramadhan disaffection breaking out this month, with increasing political tension in the run-up to the MPR General Session beginning on March 1. If, in the four weeks preceding the General Session, the rupiah strengthens and economic reforms are implemented, then Soeharto may be renominated. Yet, with a stagnant economy and a threat of unrest among an estimated 10 million unemployed, Soeharto may not yet be home and dry.

This precarious situation tips the balance and suggests what were previously insignificant factors are now becoming significant players and are beginning to shake the political ceteris paribus.

The writer is a researcher with the National Institute of Sciences.