Political ceteribus paribus and the national leadership

Political ceteribus paribus and the national leadership

By Hermawan Sulistyo

JAKARTA (JP): A political scenario is based on political
realities, subject to a condition that everything outside
politics remains constant. This condition could be termed
political ceteris paribus, a concept borrowed from economics,
referring to a linear projection of events outside the focus of
study.

In a previous article about the increasing role of the next
vice president, No room for political utopia in the Jan. 8
edition of The Jakarta Post, I stated the conditions necessary to
form a political scenario around this question.

My scenario assumed that Soeharto would enter his seventh
consecutive term in office. Declining health would then force him
to devolve greater authority to the vice president, who would use
the term as an internship, prior to assuming a presidential seat
himself. Soeharto would retain the formal title of president, at
the head of a decision-making process resembling a constitutional
monarchy, such as that seen in Thailand.

The three main conditions embodied in the assumption of
political ceteris paribus leading to the enactment of this
scenario are as follows.

First, President Soeharto continues his term, despite his
allegedly poor health. Second, there are no political pressures
strong enough to push him aside. Third, the country faces no
serious economic problems. Under such conditions, my scenario is
feasible and applicable.

In a response to these arguments, Leadership change not a
utopia in the Jan. 14 edition of The Jakarta Post, Dr. Ikrar Nusa
Bhakti refers to political ceteris paribus as the basic condition
required to realize his political hope of electing a new
president.

He misunderstands my arguments. I was discussing the key
players in a political system and assuming all other factors are
insignificant, whereas Ikrar presents these "insignificant
factors" as the main issue. He does not treat the ceteris paribus
condition as a rigid concept. Instead, he views it as dynamic and
thus it can be changed.

Following Ikrar's arguments, I agree that the political
environment should be viewed as dynamic. However, I draw upon
recent political developments, not present when our debate
started, to further my argument.

President Soeharto's decision to run for another term, and
Golkar's stated criteria for the next vice president, enhance the
feasibility of my scenario. Yet Ikrar speculates about a changing
political environment, with a peaceful transition of authority in
the March General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly
(MPR).

I have reflected on the possibility that Soeharto may step
down in March. However, the first condition, that Soeharto will
stand for a further term in office, has so far applied. The
second condition, that there are no political pressures strong
enough to push Soeharto aside, also looks increasingly realistic.

It appears that no strong opposition to Soeharto's candidacy
exists, despite evidence of discontentment manifesting itself in
increasing demands for political reform.

The two most outspoken opposition leaders, Dr. Amien Rais and
Megawati, are not tied together on the same political platform.
Gus Dur has serious health problems and his traditional Moslem
following is divided. The majority of NGOs, students and other
political activists are also fragmented.

Nevertheless, this fragmented opposition has generated a
growing number of petitions and demonstrations aimed at
preventing Soeharto's renomination as president. These
developments have forced me to have second thoughts about the
applicability of the scenario.

The third condition, assuming economic stability, looks
increasingly unrealistic. Difficulties in meeting this condition
are compounded by the lack of experience which the administration
has in dealing with a crisis of this nature.

There is a danger of post-Ramadhan disaffection breaking out
this month, with increasing political tension in the
run-up to the MPR General Session beginning on March 1. If, in
the four weeks preceding the General Session, the rupiah
strengthens and economic reforms are implemented, then Soeharto
may be renominated. Yet, with a stagnant economy and a threat of
unrest among an estimated 10 million unemployed, Soeharto may not
yet be home and dry.

This precarious situation tips the balance and suggests what
were previously insignificant factors are now becoming
significant players and are beginning to shake the political
ceteris paribus.

The writer is a researcher with the National Institute of
Sciences.