PNG's premier Morauta facing dangerous times

By Michael Perry

SYDNEY (Reuters): A military mutiny has plunged Papua New Guinea into its worst political crisis since troops revolted in 1997 against the secret hiring of South African mercenaries, leading to the downfall of the government.

The five-day mutiny over defense reforms was now fueling widespread opposition to Prime Minister Sir Mekere Morauta's economic restructuring program and giving his political opponents a potentially lethal weapon, analysts said on Tuesday.

A 1,000 students took to the streets of the capital Port Moresby on Tuesday demanding Morauta's dismissal and an end to World Bank and International Monetary Fund-backed reforms.

Rebel soldiers in defense headquarters Murray Barracks scuffled with media and the defense minister's party on Tuesday when he arrived without Morauta to talk about defense reform.

Analysts say Morauta is now facing the most dangerous period of his 20 months in office, as he struggles to be the first leader since independence from Australia in 1975 to serve a full term.

"Certainly it is the most critical period he has faced," said Ron May, Australian National University's PNG expert.

"Let's hope it wouldn't bring him down, but in terms of scenarios of military coups, I think that is a bit extreme. A vote of no confidence is still on the books, that's a threat."

Morauta has adjourned parliament till July 23 to avoid a vote of no confidence. Such votes cannot be tabled in the first and last 12 months of a prime minister's term.

But analysts warn if the unrest turns violent and becomes a national crisis, the governor-general may be forced to recall parliament, leaving Morauta an open target for his enemies.

"The biggest problem is if the dissent manifests in other areas and becomes a groundswell of unrest, that could bring about political change ... the overthrow of Morauta," said political analyst Stewart Woodman at the Australian Defense Force Academy.

"He simply doesn't have the numbers. It would be like deckchairs on the Titanic."

About 100 soldiers at Port Moresby's Murray Barracks seized M16 assault rifles from the country's main armory last Thursday and have been holed up inside their barracks in protest at defense reforms which would have axed about 2,000 soldiers.

Despite the government dumping the reforms, troops at two other barracks around the capital have also revolted and seized a grenade launcher and some 30,000 rounds of ammunition.

An unnamed officer told the Post-Courier newspaper on Monday blood would be spilt if the government did not step down, but the rebel soldiers have yet to publicly outline their demands.

Analysts believe the military will resolve their dispute peacefully, but warn if the rebellion spreads to the streets it could be used as an excuse for Raskol crime gangs, who operate freely in the capital, to go on a rampage.

More seriously, it raises the prospect of a confrontation between the army and police, who do not have a healthy relationship and are both heavily armed.

"It could get dangerous if the troops take to the streets," May told Reuters. However, May believes in contrast to the 1997 army revolt the military today lacks any wide public support.

"My feeling is this is not going to lead to a very serious situation," he said. "I don't think the military is going to try and push too hard on this. It probably realizes it would not get a great deal of backing from politicians or popular support."

Faced with entrenched corruption, Morauta has struggled to implement political and economic reforms since coming to office in July 1999. But he is now facing opposition on several fronts; the military, political, union and students.

Morauta's coalition partner, former Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare, has vowed to politically "kill" the government after he was sacked as foreign minister recently.

Unions last week walked out of government talks over minimum wages aimed at alleviating the hardships of economic reforms and have held meetings aimed at forming a new political party.

Woodman said the Morauta government has been unable to deliver the promised benefits of economic reforms to the people and was now feeling the heat.

"We are now facing a situation where the government has been unable to harness the resources and is not delivering in a number of areas," he said. "The problems with the Papua New Guinea Defense Force are symptomatic of some of the more general problems in Papua New Guinea."