PLN warns of possible shortage in reserves
Leony Aurora, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
State electricity firm PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) is warning of another possible power shortage as demand increases during the dry season, while declining rainfall means the capacities of hydropower plants drop off.
If the current energy-saving drive did not continue, power demand in the Java-Bali grid at peak times could reach some 15,245 Megawatts (MW) in October, PLN president director Eddie Widiono said on Tuesday.
"This will concur with the dry season," Eddie said.
As rainfall and water levels in reservoirs decline, the capacities of hydropower plants, contributing some 10 percent to the grid's total capacity, will be reduced to half.
General manager of the grid's center for power distribution Muljo Adji said that as more people used air conditioners for the hot days without rain, there would likely be only 120 MW left in reserves in October.
"This would be considered critical," Muljo said.
Data from the company shows the ideal minimum reserve capacity should be at the level of 1,290 MW. At present, the power reserves in peak time stand at about 600 MW.
Although the Java-Bali grid has a total installed capacity of 19,615 MW, the usable capacity hovers at around 15,500 MW, as power plants have to be shut down in turns for maintenance.
Although a reserve of 120 MW does not necessarily mean blackouts in densely-populated islands, PLN will have to make sure that all other plants, fueled by diesel, coal, gas, and other sources, run smoothly.
A failure in even one of the bigger plants would be likely to cause blackouts in some areas.
PLN plans to rely heavily on fuel-fired plants to make up for the declining hydropower. Muljo said that state oil and gas firm PT Pertamina had guaranteed that fuel supplies to the power firm would be prioritized.
Consumers' participation through energy saving measures was also needed, he said.
According to PLN data, in two weeks after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono issued the decree on energy-saving measures, there had been 571 MW of power saved on average a day in the Java-Bali grid.
"(However) the amount of power saved per day is declining," Muljo said. On the first day of the drive there was 816 MW energy saved -- but as the days turned into weeks, the energy cut declined; to around 400 MW over the last week.
"We have to continue to promote energy saving measures," said Adji.
Next year, with operations beginning of three large-scale gas- and coal-fired power plants in Cilegon and Tanjung Jati in West Java and Cilacap in Central Java, PLN's electricity reserves would improve.
The lowest reserves in 2006 would be about 2,200 MW, according to PLN's calculations.