PLN warns of possible shortage in reserves

PLN warns of possible shortage in reserves

Leony Aurora, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

State electricity firm PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) is
warning of another possible power shortage as demand increases
during the dry season, while declining rainfall means the
capacities of hydropower plants drop off.

If the current energy-saving drive did not continue, power
demand in the Java-Bali grid at peak times could reach some
15,245 Megawatts (MW) in October, PLN president director Eddie
Widiono said on Tuesday.

"This will concur with the dry season," Eddie said.

As rainfall and water levels in reservoirs decline, the
capacities of hydropower plants, contributing some 10 percent to
the grid's total capacity, will be reduced to half.

General manager of the grid's center for power distribution
Muljo Adji said that as more people used air conditioners for the
hot days without rain, there would likely be only 120 MW left in
reserves in October.

"This would be considered critical," Muljo said.

Data from the company shows the ideal minimum reserve capacity
should be at the level of 1,290 MW. At present, the power
reserves in peak time stand at about 600 MW.

Although the Java-Bali grid has a total installed capacity of
19,615 MW, the usable capacity hovers at around 15,500 MW, as
power plants have to be shut down in turns for maintenance.

Although a reserve of 120 MW does not necessarily mean
blackouts in densely-populated islands, PLN will have to make
sure that all other plants, fueled by diesel, coal, gas, and
other sources, run smoothly.

A failure in even one of the bigger plants would be likely to
cause blackouts in some areas.

PLN plans to rely heavily on fuel-fired plants to make up for
the declining hydropower. Muljo said that state oil and gas firm
PT Pertamina had guaranteed that fuel supplies to the power firm
would be prioritized.

Consumers' participation through energy saving measures was
also needed, he said.

According to PLN data, in two weeks after President Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono issued the decree on energy-saving measures,
there had been 571 MW of power saved on average a day in the
Java-Bali grid.

"(However) the amount of power saved per day is declining,"
Muljo said. On the first day of the drive there was 816 MW energy
saved -- but as the days turned into weeks, the energy cut
declined; to around 400 MW over the last week.

"We have to continue to promote energy saving measures," said
Adji.

Next year, with operations beginning of three large-scale gas-
and coal-fired power plants in Cilegon and Tanjung Jati in West
Java and Cilacap in Central Java, PLN's electricity reserves
would improve.

The lowest reserves in 2006 would be about 2,200 MW, according
to PLN's calculations.