Picking Hashimoto's successor

Talk of reform and change are once again in the air in the Japanese political world, but that does not necessarily mean they will be quickly forthcoming. Our Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin sets the scene, as factional politics within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party focus on the election of a new party president to replace Ryutaro Hashimoto.

HONG KONG (JP): The endless tooing and froing in Tokyo since Aug. 13 had a friend of mine parodying that old jazz song about the saints.

"Its another case of When The Suits Go Marching In he reminded me.

He was, in fact, describing the almost incredible situation as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) goes about the task of choosing a successor to caretaker and outgoing Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, in a leisurely manner amidst the ongoing recession and regional economic crisis.

The Suits Go Marching In refers to a great deal of the television coverage in Japan of this Great Political Event, and many political events like it. It also refers to the way in which Japanese politics are too often conducted.

The daily TV roundup frequently shows major political personalities -- whether factional leaders or cabinet ministers or even Prime Ministers --- walking along seemingly endless corridors in Nagata-cho (the Tokyo political district) as they proceed, surrounded by a bevy of journalists and flunkeys, from one smoke-filled backroom to another.

The rest of world has tended over the years to try and take politics out of the smoke filled backrooms, but in Japan those rooms not only exist, they are still the focus of a great deal of crucial political activity. They are also filled with smokers.

As the processions go marching in, they are all dressed uniformly in dark business suits. They all appear to be silent, keeping their thoughts to themselves, as TV newscaster tries hard to give the processions some meaning.

I have watched this kind of coverage many times in Japan. It is exceedingly monotonous both in sound as well as in pictures. What it regularly fails to reveal is what precisely is happening.

Curt and pointed sound bytes from acute political analysts are rare. What precisely goes on in those smoke filled backrooms into which the suits regularly march remains a mystery.

So it is unlikely that Japanese viewers have been forcefully told, by those talking heads who in other parts of the world are allowed to pontificate about everything, that:

-- "Foreigners think that the financial markets will slump if a dull leader like Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi is chosen," or that -- "The LDP really must develop a more open and visibly democratic way of choosing their president," or that

-- "At this time of crisis Japan simply cannot afford to have a political vacuum and a caretaker Prime Minister for three weeks".

To speak such blunt truths, even in TV sound bytes, would be too direct, and would go against the Japanese political grain.

Even at a time of crisis in Japan, indirection and inference prevail, even on TV.

So the television coverage, as the suits go marching in, is frequently as opaque and obscure as the event itself -- in that sense, it faithfully reflects reality. No one knows for sure what is the precise basis upon which the factions are jockeying for power. But it has been a safe assumption, until now, that in the choice of Prime Minister -- seniority generally prevails over talent, factional balance takes precedence over reformist convictions, and reaching consensus is preferred to conducting elections.

Just in case the reader thinks this is an exaggerated description of Japanese political behavior, remember that, after the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima on Aug. 6 1945, it still took 10 days, plus the dropping of another bomb on Nagasaki, before consensus was reached on surrender. Even then consensus required that the Emperor tell the people that "the war has proceeded not necessarily to Japan's advantage".

The suits will be marching in for several days yet, as the hunt goes on for Hashimoto's successor as LDP President and therefore Prime Minister. Maybe consensus between the factions will be obtained on one single candidate before the election for LDP president next week.

The election has been moved forward from Aug. 21 to Aug. 24 -- no doubt in the hope that this may make the election unnecessary, by providing more time for the suits to go marching in.

Another possibility is that the election will be held to satisfy Japanese voters, financial markets and foreigners -- but that the result will have been agreed beforehand, in those smoke- filled backrooms.

There is a deep irony in all this. Hashimoto essentially felt obliged to resign because of those election losses, but the losses came about because he had failed to face up to, and deal with, the crisis enveloping Japan and the region.

But as the LDP takes 11 days to select a new LDP President, plus a further week before the House of Representatives meets to formally chose the Prime Minister, it can be argued that the party is making the same basic mistake as that which led to Hashimoto's resignation: it is failing to deal with the situation at hand with an appropriate sense of urgency.

So far, the financial markets have been very patient, perhaps because of another habitual aspect of such crises in Japanese politics. Almost as regularly as the marching suits, American correspondents for the New York Times and the Washington Post will start writing stories detecting change and reform afoot in the tradition-bound Japanese body politic.

Rebellious young MPs, with reformist notions, the reduced influence of the LDP factions, and the prospect of elections replacing backroom jockeying, are all eagerly cited as reasons why things will be different this time.

But in the last 30 years at least the tooing and froing of LDP factional politics has proceeded much as before. True, this time some of the rebellious younger LDP MPs are regularly meeting in a Tokyo hotel, on a trans-factional basis. True, the candidates have to make some reformist noises today otherwise they will appear completely out of touch. True, this time, at least some in the LDP will feel the need to appease the voter's recently expressed anger. True, too, that three candidates debated the issues on nationwide TV on July 19.

But the U.S. reporters would be well advised to carefully keep their stories because they will probably be able to repeat them with hardly a word changed in a couple of years, the next time there is a leadership contest.

It is far too soon to realistically assert that real substantive change is taking place in the way the LDP conducts its affairs.

Much more likely, the inverted pattern of Japanese politics is once again on display.

Hashimoto resigned in the wake of the LDP's "devastating defeat" -- but the LDP is still in power.

Factions were formally abolished by the LDP as a reform measure after the party's 1993 defeat -- but they are still very much in play. The only change is that, since factions are "abolished" no newspaper prints the numerical strengths of each faction.

The severe House of Councilors setback for the LDP in 1989 led to the resignation of Noboru Takeshita as Prime Minister, just as the 1998 setback required the exit of Ryutaro Hashimoto, a member of the Takeshita faction.

Factions have been abolished -- but the Takeshita faction (sometimes called the Obuchi faction after the current Foreign Minister) remains the LDP's largest, with between a quarter and one-third of the LDP parliamentary strength.

A real leadership election is eagerly anticipated -- but the two leading candidates, Keizo Obuchi and Seiroku Kajiyama, are both members of the Takeshita faction, even though that faction was responsible for two election debacles. Minister of Health and Welfare Junichiro Koizumi is put forward by the second largest faction, led by former Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka, in the probably vain hope that the Takeshita faction will be divided when the vote is finally taken.

The televised debate was certainly an interesting change -- but the broadly similar views of the three candidates indirectly underlined the importance of factional casting votes decided in those smoke-filled backrooms.

Window A: A real leadership election is eagerly anticipated -- but the two leading candidates, Keizo Obuchi and Seiroku Kajiyama, are both members of the Takeshita faction, even though that faction was responsible for two election debacles.