Pepper production to plunge this year

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia's pepper production is expected to decline sharply this year due to heavy rains in the main pepper growing areas of Bangka Island and Lampung, southern Sumatra, traders have said.

Traders predicted white pepper output would drop by about 40 percent to 16,000 tons this year from over 27,000 tons in 1998, while black pepper might plunge by 50 percent to 10,000 tons from about 20,000 tons last year.

Director of pepper exporter PT Putrabali Adyamulia Mustakim H.W., told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday, continuous rain would be the main factor contributing to lower production rates.

"We are afraid that rain will cause fruit to fall from the trees. I think it is better to say that this year's output will be similar or even much lower to last year's."

Teddy Wijaya, an official from the Association of Indonesian Pepper Exporters, said the total catch crop in the first two months of this year fell below initial expectations of between 1,500 tons and 2,500 tons.

"In fact the total yield during the period only reached slightly over 750 tons," he told the Post.

He explained that pepper harvesting was expected to be carried out on two occasions, with an estimated total harvest of 16,000 tons.

The first harvest, during the June to July period would probably yield half of the estimated figure of 16,000 tons. The second harvest was expected to be in the November to December period.

"We remain doubtful and uncertain about the pepper yield for the second harvest, as we are quite concerned that unfavorable conditions will damage the cherries."

Indonesia is the world's top producer of white pepper and is ranked the second highest black pepper producer after India. White pepper is mostly grown on Bangka Island, South Sumatra, and accounts for 90 percent of the country's output, while black pepper is produced in Lampung, also South Sumatra.

White pepper harvests last from June through September. The black pepper crop starts from August through November.

Indonesia exported 16,398 tons of white pepper and 21,829 tons of black pepper in 1998.

Mustakim said Indonesian pepper exports this year were estimated to drop to about 15,000 tons of white pepper and 9,000 tons of black pepper. Over 90 percent of all pepper would be exported.

Mustakim said the likelihood of a drastic fall in the pepper yield in 1999, would inevitably result in extreme shortages of white pepper.

He said inventories were currently decreasing at an alarming rate, both in producing and consuming countries.

Mustakim said white pepper supply would depend on pepper yield from Malaysia, the second largest producer of white pepper, while the supply of black pepper would depend on India's pepper yield.

"But we do not see any possibility of both countries producing additional black or white pepper. So it is likely that the future supply of both commodities will be insufficient and unlikely to meet this year's world demand."

According to the International Pepper Community (IPC) during the first month of 1999, India exported 1,874 tons, Indonesia 1,442 tons and Malaysia 814 tons. Compared to the same period in 1998, these were decreases of 10.6 percent, 31.1 percent and 10.3 percent respectively.

Teddy said the association earlier estimated black pepper output could reach 14,000 tons and 30,000 tons for white pepper, due to the expansion of plantation areas to 138,000 hectares this year from 131,300 hectares last year.

But the forecast had been revised after heavy rainfall in the Indonesian pepper belt in Bangka and Lampung.

A kilogram of white pepper is currently quoted at Rp 9,000 in Bangka.

IPC estimated Indonesia's pepper exports to drop by 26 percent to approximately 30,000 tons this year from 37,800 tons last year due to the unfavorable weather conditions.

It said 1998 was the world's lowest pepper export year in the past decade. Peak exports in the decade topped 167,000 tons in 1991.

In 1998, exports from almost all exporting countries declined. IPC said world pepper exports were recorded at 125,957 tons in 1998 compared with 138,589 tons in 1997. (gis)