PDI-P's political prowess comes under question

JAKARTA (JP): The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle's (PDI Perjuangan) much lauded electoral prowess came into immediate uncertainty on Monday following the defeat of Matori Abdul Djalil as chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

Questions were immediately raised on the political supremacy of Megawati Soekarnoputri's party to propel her to the presidency in the Oct. 20 election.

Matori, chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB), was the front-runner after receiving the firm backing of PDI Perjuangan.

Many blamed the defeat to "axis force" leader Amien Rais for PDI Perjuangan's complacency.

The defeat now blows the presidential race wide open. No one can take the axis force, and its presidential nominee Nahdlatul Ulema (NU) chief Abdurrahman Wahid, also known as Gus Dur, lightly.

Megawati's own decline, can only be good news for incumbent B.J. Habibie's apparently dimming hopes.

"The axis force is gaining strength. Megawati made a fatal mistake," political analyst Arbi Sanit said on Monday.

Arbi said there were a number of factors for the defeat of the PDI Perjuangan and PKB alliance: "A weak lobby, error in strategy, the arrogant demeanor of PDI Perjuangan people, including Megawati's own attitude."

When asked, Arbi said that Sunday night's events may spell the beginning of the end for Megawati.

"(Yes) If we look at the trend, unless PDI Perjuangan can come up with a few surprises and reverse things... With the current voting trend and Megawati's weaknesses, Gus Dur has the upper hand," Arbi said.

Gadjah Mada University rector Ichlasul Amal warned that Abdurrahman's chances could double if Golkar, which apparently threw its weight behind Amien in the Assembly election, drops Habibie's nomination.

"If Habibie is out of the picture, it will only be Megawati and Gus Dur. Gus Dur would edge out Megawati," he said.

In Amal's assessment, support would fall behind Abdurrahman from the axis force, and breakaway votes from PKB and Golkar. "And very likely also from the Indonesian Military (TNI)."

"Which way TNI goes could be crucial," he added.

However, if Golkar hangs on to Habibie, then the divisions created would be beneficial to Megawati.

The question now is whether Golkar would forsake Habibie and side with the axis force, which combines Amien Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN) and several small Muslim parties.

Golkar deputy chairman Marzuki Darusman conceded on Monday that Amien's election could be an impediment to Habibie's reelection as Amien is a strong critic of Habibie.

"It goes back to how Golkar can overcome these obstacles," he said, adding that the Gus Dur factor, TNI's neutrality and organizational factors are keys to Habibie's reelection.

Marzuki conceded that if an analysis shows that these factors show less than a 50 percent support, Golkar might have to review the nomination.

Political observer Riswandha Imawan also noted that the neck and neck race between Amien and Matori would be a prolog of the tough battle ahead only if Golkar drops Habibie's candidacy.

"But, if Golkar stays with Habibie then people simply won't vote for him," he remarked in Yogyakarta on Monday.

One counterview on Abdurrahman's increasing chances came from political and legal expert Moh. Mahfud of the Indonesian Islamic University in Yogyakarta.

Mahfud pointed out two important factors. First, PKB, which Abdurrahman founded, continues to formally back Megawati, and second, the NU ulemas' have in recent gatherings asked Abdurrahman not to run for president.

"If he backs down, then the axis force vote will be split with those who dislike Habibie likely to abstain," Mahfud argued.

Indonesian Institute of Sciences researcher AS Hikam also noted that Golkar politicians had one crucial political skill PDI Perjuangan had yet to master: lobbying.

"I don't know who those PDI Perjuangan people are, but if I were them I'd be ashamed," he said on Monday.

Even in defeat, Matori remained defiant. "I will not join the axis force," Matori said while reasserting support for Megawati and brushing aside suggestions that PKB members might breakaway to support party founder Abdurrahman in a presidential election.

Senior PDI Perjuangan executive Kwik Kian Gie also denied remarks that Sunday's proceedings were ominous signs for the party.

He also brushed off suggestions that the party faltered in its lobby. "No we weren't late. We just perceived the momentum differently."

Megawati herself remained upbeat.

"There are still many ways we can move forward," she said. (02/23/44/byg)