PDI Perjuangan and Golkar are still worlds apart

PDI Perjuangan and Golkar are still worlds apart

Amid signs of cooperation between the Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and Golkar, lecturer in
politics Cornelis Lay says it would be too risky for PDI
Perjuangan to join forces with the former ruling party. An
excerpt of the interview with the lecturer from Gadjah Mada
University in Yogyakarta follows:

Question: The dismissal of two ministers has led to signs of
cooperation between PDI Perjuangan and Golkar. How far do you
think this will go?

Answer: It is difficult to envision a coalition of the two
(parties) at this time because the only thing bringing them
together is disappointment with the latest action of President
Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) in removing ministers from both
parties.

Their replacements are from neither party and the replacements
are judged to be no better (than their predecessors),
particularly the replacement for (former state minister of
investment and state enterprises development) Laksamana Sukardi.

This (shared disappointment) does not automatically lead to
both parties becoming on par at the ideological level, a
requirement for a coalition.

I think their political agendas will still be very different.
But they could possibly work together in pressuring Gus Dur's
government.

Any other reasons why a coalition between them is not
possible?

Historical factors would be a constraint; widespread rejection
would be faced at the grass roots. I think the elite of PDI
Perjuangan have really taken this into account. Just look at the
earlier congress, it was difficult for ex-Golkar members to be
accepted as party executives. This indicates that the resistance
by PDI Perjuangan members towards Golkar is still strong.

Secondly, both parties have similar social bases of support.
But this is exactly what could obstruct attempts at a coalition.

Executives of PDI Perjuangan realize they could lose out to
Golkar's political experience, strategic capability and
resources.

If they formed a coalition, it would likely not benefit PDI
Perjuangan in the 2004 elections. The risk for PDI Perjuangan
would be too great; their supporters could move to Golkar shortly
after the coalition was formed. So I don't think PDI Perjuangan
would go that far (to form a coalition with Golkar).

Thirdly, at grass roots level the perception is still very
strong that Golkar is the party responsible for much of the
damage under the New Order. It would be too reckless for PDI
Perjuangan to coalesce with them only one year after the fall of
the New Order. So there are more factors distancing both parties
than those bringing them together.

But isn't Golkar striving for a reformist image?

That's just because other parties are too slow. For instance,
issues of "money politics" are being revealed in PDI Perjuangan,
not Golkar. Also, the immaturity of politicians outside Golkar,
who are enmeshed in squabbles, leads to the impression that
Golkar has drastically changed and hence seems like the most
mature party.

Actually, in principle Golkar has not changed much; it's still
the political tool of the New Order pro-status quo.

Furthermore, those in PDI Perjuangan know full well that they
have lost out to Golkar's strategies at the regional level. In
competing for regents posts, almost all candidates from PDI
Perjuangan lost to Golkar's machine politics.

Therefore, PDI Perjuangan must review whether it has
capabilities to deal with Golkar.

Ahead of the August General Assembly, is there any chance of
both parties working together to pressure Gus Dur to step down?

I don't think it will come to that, though this doesn't mean
that no one in either party is trying to use the moment to end
Gus Dur's government. But motivation for that isn't strong
enough; Laksamana himself has said that representatives of PDI
Perjuangan in the Cabinet should continue to support Gus Dur's
government, and that he himself is only troubled by the dismissal
due to issues of KKN ...

How is the dismissal of Laksamana and Kalla affecting parties
internally?

Gus Dur's explanation of the reshuffle initially raised
complications within PDI Perjuangan, because that explanation
labeled Laksamana a party executive who could not work with
(another party executive and Cabinet member) Kwik Kian Gie.

Added to that were rumors that the reshuffle was a result of
rivalry within the party, heavily influenced by (Megawati's
husband and party executive) Taufik Kiemas.

Meanwhile in Golkar, Kalla's replacement will encourage the
development of ethnic politics. I think the replacement will be
soon followed by movements from important groups in South
Sulawesi to demand a federal state or even a separation (from the
Republic). That's highly possible if Gus Dur does not immediately
give a reasonable explanation.

What kind of pressure will PDI Perjuangan and Golkar likely
exert on Gus Dur in August's General Assembly?

At most they will demand Gus Dur to behave better in politics
by no longer making weird surprises leading to uncertainties in
the bureaucracy and in the Cabinet.

I think stronger pressure on Gus Dur will come from the so-
called "axis force" of Islam-oriented parties, which exerted
pressure well before the recent reshuffle.

Pressure from Golkar and mainly form PDI Perjuangan will never
reach a "fatal" degree, such as to the extent of withdrawing all
party representatives from the government.

I'm also not sure whether PDI Perjuangan would ask Megawati to
resign as Vice President as (fellow lecturer) Riswandha Imawan
has suggested.

What is most likely is that the annual General Assembly will
be the President's forum to convey his annual progress report,
and it will also be the venue in which the President is called on
to explain contemporary political issues including the ousting of
five ministers in only six months.

Isn't Gus Dur facing a dilemma? He's used a prerogative to
settle these governmental tasks, but he's also tied to deals in
the formation of the original Cabinet.

The problem is having a presidential system of government by
constitution, but in practice principles of a parliamentary
system applies in this Cabinet.

We must also stress that this coalition is full of ethnic
baggage which ties the President to the deals. It's these deals
which Gus Dur is violating now.

However, even a President's prerogative is not a "mantra"-like
power. President Abdurrahman only has two options; choosing
someone (as minister or other state official) within the
coalition deals, taking into account his or her political
background; or choosing someone based on competency and
professionalism without considering political background. (Asip
A. Hasani)