PDI-P and Golkar coalition remains a possibility

Mohammad Nasih, Researcher, KATALIS Foundation, Jakarta

The possibility of a coalition between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party made headlines in the media following Golkar leader Akbar Tandjung's statement that he was prepared to serve as vice president with Megawati Soekarnoputri as president.

Rumors of political deals at the top levels of government immediately followed because Akbar made the statement not long after the Supreme Court overturned his conviction on corruption charges. Apart from these rumored deals, the possibility of a PDI-P-Golkar coalition is a very interesting issue.

The PDI-P and Golkar are the country's two largest political parties based on the results of the 1999 general election. This is coupled with predictions by several survey institutes that the PDI-P will triumph in the 2004 elections despite an expected decline in its vote tally, and that Golkar will be able to secure a significant increase in its tally.

On paper, therefore, the presidential election will be "over" if these two major political forces combine, and the people who will occupy the presidency and vice presidency can be forecast.

This analysis can be dismissed with the argument that the elections system enables a difference between legislative and presidential election vote tallies, because the two elections do not take place at the same time.

In this way, the PDI-P and Golkar can combine to win over 50 percent of the vote in the legislative election, but that does not mean they automatically can control the presidential election. Even if the leaders of the two parties were paired for the presidential election, those who voted for the parties are not obliged to vote for their presidential nominees.

Such a view is correct and can be explained in at least two ways. First, Akbar Tandjung as a figure is actually a weak link despite him being a skilled politician, because his image has been damaged with his connection to the Bulog (State Logistics Agency) scam. This is especially true among supporters of other parties, including the PDI-P.

Moreover, Akbar used to be very close to the New Order, which, nota bene, exercised political "oppression" against activists of the PDI (the former name of PDI-P). So some people in the legislative election may vote for the PDI-P but may not vote for Megawati in the presidential election if Akbar is on the ticket.

Second, a big movement will arise to raise the unpleasant issues connected with the coalition. Discussions of horse-trading will definitely become a major issue in such a political atmosphere. This in turn will provide very valuable ammunition for groups outside the PDI-P and Golkar to undermine the vote tallies of both parties in the presidential election.

Though still being debated, a possible PDI-P and Golkar coalition is not too difficult to imagine. Three basic arguments can justify the "merger" of these two major parties into a bigger political force to achieve the goal of highest executive power.

First, those groups that frequently raise the issue of reform always identify Golkar as the New Order, and thus the common enemy. Some extreme attitudes still want to see Golkar dissolved.

Second, these groups see a failure in PDI-P's leadership. The present government is considered to be incapable of carrying out the message of reform. In their view, allowing the party another chance to rule means a return to the same behavior, which will bring the nation greater misery.

These two realities have resulted in a solidarity between the PDI-P and Golkar, and according to social theory two or more camps will unify in order to form a greater force to face an external threat.

Third, the PDI-P and Golkar pose no constraints to each other in their political platforms, so the coalition plan will certainly become a sough-after commodity by elite members of both parties when it is ripe enough for a public launch.

The next question is: Won't other political forces be tempted to join the coalition? I predict that this is quite possible and the likelihood is very great. Three categories of politicians are not attracted by such a political setting; namely those unable to detect a chance, those unwilling to hold political power and those pursuing some political idealism due to their doubts about the coalition's capacity, and thus are ready to act as an opposition force if defeated in the election.

In this context, the most likely significant political force to join the coalition is the National Awakening Party (PKB), the party set up by Gus Dur. So far the PKB has not shown any extreme political attitudes toward the prevalent situation, so there would be no moral restrictions on its participation in the coalition.

Additionally, the PKB apparently has no presidential candidate other than Gus Dur, whose political fortunes have drastically declined in recent years. The historical background, when the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) was a political party, also indicates the possibility of its role in a coalition with PDI-P and Golkar. No wonder PDI-P's leaders have intensively lobbied NU leaders, owing to their special clout in determining the direction of PKB in the coming elections.

If this comes to pass, a major coalition capable of collecting over 50 percent of the vote will most likely emerge. In this manner, the results of the vote for the president and vice president will remain in the framework of this article's predictions, without any real significant changes.

But as a final note, one thing that should not be overlooked is that this is not a fixed fate for the Golkar Party, which has a great deal of flexibility in adjusting to any political changes.

So, Golkar is likely to do otherwise by forming a coalition with the parties that after the last elections successfully grouped together to create the inter-legislative political force called the axis group, though this will be relatively difficult if legislative election gains serve as the bargaining chips.