PDI-P and Golkar coalition remains a possibility

PDI-P and Golkar coalition remains a possibility

Mohammad Nasih, Researcher, KATALIS Foundation, Jakarta

The possibility of a coalition between the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party made
headlines in the media following Golkar leader Akbar Tandjung's
statement that he was prepared to serve as vice president with
Megawati Soekarnoputri as president.

Rumors of political deals at the top levels of government
immediately followed because Akbar made the statement not long
after the Supreme Court overturned his conviction on corruption
charges. Apart from these rumored deals, the possibility of a
PDI-P-Golkar coalition is a very interesting issue.

The PDI-P and Golkar are the country's two largest political
parties based on the results of the 1999 general election. This
is coupled with predictions by several survey institutes that the
PDI-P will triumph in the 2004 elections despite an expected
decline in its vote tally, and that Golkar will be able to secure
a significant increase in its tally.

On paper, therefore, the presidential election will be "over"
if these two major political forces combine, and the people who
will occupy the presidency and vice presidency can be forecast.

This analysis can be dismissed with the argument that the
elections system enables a difference between legislative and
presidential election vote tallies, because the two elections do
not take place at the same time.

In this way, the PDI-P and Golkar can combine to win over 50
percent of the vote in the legislative election, but that does
not mean they automatically can control the presidential
election. Even if the leaders of the two parties were paired for
the presidential election, those who voted for the parties are
not obliged to vote for their presidential nominees.

Such a view is correct and can be explained in at least two
ways. First, Akbar Tandjung as a figure is actually a weak link
despite him being a skilled politician, because his image has
been damaged with his connection to the Bulog (State Logistics
Agency) scam. This is especially true among supporters of other
parties, including the PDI-P.

Moreover, Akbar used to be very close to the New Order, which,
nota bene, exercised political "oppression" against activists of
the PDI (the former name of PDI-P). So some people in the
legislative election may vote for the PDI-P but may not vote for
Megawati in the presidential election if Akbar is on the ticket.

Second, a big movement will arise to raise the unpleasant
issues connected with the coalition. Discussions of horse-trading
will definitely become a major issue in such a political
atmosphere. This in turn will provide very valuable ammunition
for groups outside the PDI-P and Golkar to undermine the vote
tallies of both parties in the presidential election.

Though still being debated, a possible PDI-P and Golkar
coalition is not too difficult to imagine. Three basic arguments
can justify the "merger" of these two major parties into a bigger
political force to achieve the goal of highest executive power.

First, those groups that frequently raise the issue of reform
always identify Golkar as the New Order, and thus the common
enemy. Some extreme attitudes still want to see Golkar dissolved.

Second, these groups see a failure in PDI-P's leadership. The
present government is considered to be incapable of carrying out
the message of reform. In their view, allowing the party another
chance to rule means a return to the same behavior, which will
bring the nation greater misery.

These two realities have resulted in a solidarity between the
PDI-P and Golkar, and according to social theory two or more
camps will unify in order to form a greater force to face an
external threat.

Third, the PDI-P and Golkar pose no constraints to each other
in their political platforms, so the coalition plan will
certainly become a sough-after commodity by elite members of both
parties when it is ripe enough for a public launch.

The next question is: Won't other political forces be tempted
to join the coalition? I predict that this is quite possible and
the likelihood is very great. Three categories of politicians are
not attracted by such a political setting; namely those unable to
detect a chance, those unwilling to hold political power and
those pursuing some political idealism due to their doubts about
the coalition's capacity, and thus are ready to act as an
opposition force if defeated in the election.

In this context, the most likely significant political force
to join the coalition is the National Awakening Party (PKB), the
party set up by Gus Dur. So far the PKB has not shown any extreme
political attitudes toward the prevalent situation, so there
would be no moral restrictions on its participation in the
coalition.

Additionally, the PKB apparently has no presidential candidate
other than Gus Dur, whose political fortunes have drastically
declined in recent years. The historical background, when the
Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) was a political party, also indicates the
possibility of its role in a coalition with PDI-P and Golkar. No
wonder PDI-P's leaders have intensively lobbied NU leaders, owing
to their special clout in determining the direction of PKB in the
coming elections.

If this comes to pass, a major coalition capable of collecting
over 50 percent of the vote will most likely emerge. In this
manner, the results of the vote for the president and vice
president will remain in the framework of this article's
predictions, without any real significant changes.

But as a final note, one thing that should not be overlooked
is that this is not a fixed fate for the Golkar Party, which has
a great deal of flexibility in adjusting to any political
changes.

So, Golkar is likely to do otherwise by forming a coalition
with the parties that after the last elections successfully
grouped together to create the inter-legislative political force
called the axis group, though this will be relatively difficult
if legislative election gains serve as the bargaining chips.