PDI crisis may threaten 1997 election: Scholar

JAKARTA (JP): The deepening crisis plaguing the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) will endanger the 1997 election unless the government can handle it correctly, an analyst said yesterday.

Riswanda Imawan from Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada University said the escalating leadership rift threatens not only the minority party itself, but also the interests of the nation as whole.

If the crisis persists, PDI may risk boycotting next year's election on the grounds that it is not ready for it, he said.

"If PDI does that, the 1997 election must be canceled, because the pertaining law states that elections should be participated in by the three political organizations," he said.

The three are Golkar, PDI and the United Development Party (PPP). They will all be contesting for 425 seats in the House of Representatives.

The PDI, a merger of Christian and nationalist forces, was hit hard after breakaway leaders -- backed by the government and military -- demanded a new congress.

Critics say that the current crisis is engineered by the government, which wants to see PDI's legitimate chief, Megawati Soekarnoputri, ousted prior to next year's election.

Riswandha said that if PDI does not take part in the election and the government insists on having only Golkar and PPP take part in the election, a new problem would arise.

For example, he said, the House will not be able to make decisions, because the law requires that any decisions the legislative body makes must be approved by all factions.

"As all House members are also members of the People's Consultative Assembly (which elects the new president), then the crisis will hamper the 1998 presidential election as well," he said.

According to Riswandha, it is logical to relate the political bloodletting in PDI with Golkar leaders' determination to clinch a landslide victory next year.

He said that apparently the ruling Golkar has an interest in keeping the fire within PDI lit in order to reduce its ability to attract voters for the forthcoming election.

"Obviously, the PDI card is easier for Golkar to play than the PPP. The PDI's internal conflict is worse. Besides, PDI successfully snatched many of Golkar's seats in the House in 1992," he said.

In the 1992 election, Golkar lost 16 seats to the PDI and one to PPP, reducing its majority from 73 percent to 68 percent. Golkar now has 282 seats, PPP 62 and PDI 56 in the House.

Meanwhile, in Surakarta, political observer Makyo Sumaryo said PDI dissidents pressing for a congress are "political clowns" who mean to confuse party members in the regencies.

"What they (dissidents) do is a political crime that can hamper the 1997 election," said Makyo, a political teacher from the Sebelas Maret University and chief of the Surakarta PDI chapter.

In Ujungpandang, Sadly A.D., a political observer from the Hasanuddin University, predicted that no one can stop the breakaway PDI leaders from holding the congress, because it is the will of most party branches.

Sadly, the dean of the university's sociopolitical school, said that, in his opinion, the government is not fanning the flames of PDI's internal conflict as many people believe.

"The dispute stems from conflicting interests among the party's leaders," he said. (har/20/pan)