Pattern of political coalition in 2004

Muhammad Qodari Director of Research Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Jakarta qodari@hotmail.com

Political coalitions will be inevitable for political parties in the 2004 elections and afterwards. It is also a political necessity for the president and vice president, who seek to win and remain in office until 2009.

What would be the possible pattern of political coalitions in the 2004 presidential election? How do the political laws affect the coalition?

The most important legal document is the 1945 Constitution, which has been amended four times since 1999. These amendments have affected the possible pattern of coalitions. The constitution, for example, stipulates that the president and vice president be elected directly by 140 million eligible voters, and no longer by members of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

It also stipulates that the impeachment of the president and/or vice president be proposed by the House of Representatives (DPR) to the MPR, but the proposal should first be examined, assessed and decided upon by the Constitutional Court. Apart from the Court's decision, the proposal must be approved by at least two-thirds of House members present at the session, at which two- thirds of total House members must be present.

Therefore, any president and/or vice president from a party or combination of parties that control more than a third of House seats will be able to contain any political move to impeach them during their term.

Who will be Megawati Soekarnoputri's running mate?

In 2004, prior to the legislative election, all major parties may still nominate party leaders as their presidential candidate. However, soon after the announcement of the legislative election results, each party would seek to join forces with another party. Candidates from a bigger party, in terms of the number of seats it has gained in the DPR, would forward the presidential nominee, while the smaller party's candidate would be the running mate.

The formation of coalitions next year, particularly the one formed with the biggest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and its chairman-cum-incumbent president Megawati, will be strongly influenced by the impeachment process.

PDI Perjuangan and Megawati will try to find a running mate that would help the duo secure more than 183 House seats -- or a third of the total 550 seats in the future House.

Excluding the 38 appointed members from the armed forces, PDI Perjuangan presently controls 33.1 percent of House seats. Golkar controls 26 percent, while the National Awakening Party (PKB) has 11 percent, the United Development Party (PPP) has 12.5 percent and the National Mandate Party (PAN) has 7.3 percent.

Taking into account that the distribution of seats in 2004 will resemble that of the 1999 election, PDI Perjuangan will be able to form a coalition with any party and candidate it wishes to, since the party already controls a third of the House.

Thus, PDI Perjuangan's most natural ally would be the Golkar party, which shares the same ideological line, and Golkar would remain the second biggest party.

However, Golkar's current chairman is Akbar Tandjung, who has been sentenced to three years for alleged misuse of funds belonging to the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), but is free pending an appeal to the Supreme Court. Because this is a direct presidential election, Akbar's conviction would negatively influence voters.

Thus, Megawati will not want to risk her chance by selecting Akbar, as he would jeopardize her bid for presidency. Megawati may prefer to retain Hamzah Haz, the current vice president and chairman of PPP, the third biggest party in the House. The idea of maintaining the Megawati-Hamzah duo has been mentioned several times already by PDI Perjuangan legislators, such as Roy B.B. Janis and Pramono Anung Wibowo.

However, Megawati may opt for an alternative candidate, such as Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. If Megawati wants to boost her chances of winning, she may have to consider Susilo.

Why? A recent poll by the research center CESDA-LP3ES showed that any presidential candidate that joins hands with Susilo would gain a significant increase in popularity.

Another advantage of choosing Susilo as her vice president would be their similar ideological background, as opposed to Islamist Hamzah Haz. Susilo has proven himself to be a competent senior minister with managerial skills. This would benefit to Megawati, who has assumed the role of "solidarity maker". Unfortunately, Susilo is not a party leader, and this is a political disadvantage as he does not control House seats through his supporting party -- at least for the time being.

Other possible coalitions are difficult to foresee for the moment, but the criteria for the formation of coalitions in 2004 is clear.

First, candidates and political parties will seek a coalition that will result in at least 183 House seats to secure the presidency.

Second, of the parties forming the coalition, the presidential candidate will be nominated by the bigger political party in terms of the number of House seats it holds, and the vice presidential candidate will come from the smaller one.

Third, any aspiring candidate will try to find the most attractive partner, choosing one that will help increase their own popularity, to form the winning combination.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) is a newly established independent institution dedicated to survey and research. The results of the first national poll on Indonesian politics will be published later this month.