Part 2 of 2: The effects of E. Asian leadership changes on international relations

Jusuf Wanandi, Member, Board of Trustees, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta

Thailand: Thailand under Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has an active foreign policy. With his Thai Rak Party having a solid majority in parliament Thaksin has changed many national policies. He is also pro-active in foreign policy, as his chairing of the APEC meeting in Bangkok several months ago indicated. How far this activity will go will depend partly on how far ASEAN as a group will support his foreign policy initiatives.

Thaksin will become a proactive leader among the next generation of ASEAN leaders and should be watched closely. He has improved Thailand's economy and regional standing quite remarkably -- while behaving like the CEO of Thailand.

While popular among the Thai people, he is less so among the elite, particularly among academia and non-government organizations because of his disdain for press freedom and the role of civil society. Whether his economic policies will succeed in the long-term is still being debated. The problem of terrorism is southern Thailand could also become more serious.

o Malaysia: New Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi is a consensus seeker and -- unlike his predecessor Mahathir -- is a proponent of collective leadership. Perhaps this is what Malaysia needs after 22 years of activism under Mahathir. Badawi is also more expert on Islamic issues and could face Malaysian opposition party PAS more effectively on those issues. Badawi has said he is not going to change existing policies established by Mahathir except to fine-tune some of their rough edges.

This means he is likely to stick to a non-aligned foreign policy, which is pro the developing world's interests and gives solidarity to Muslim causes. Above all he will make close cooperation with ASEAN the centerpiece of Malaysia's foreign policy. His rhetoric is likely to be more subdued than Mahathir's and that will be good for Malaysia's external relations.

o Philippines: President Arroyo will stand again in the coming presidential election and has a fighting chance to win, if backed by the established elite as widely expected. That does not mean the political divide in the country will necessarily be overcome as has been shown recently by the abortive coup by some military officers and the protests on the streets of Manila.

Arroyo is backed by the U.S., which is concerned about the southern Philippines as a potential training ground for Muslim terrorists linked with al-Qaeda. Relations with the U.S. have always been important for the Philippines, for both its economy and its security.

Hopefully President Arroyo can become a more forceful and capable president than she was in the first term, where she was seen as slow to initiate reforms. Otherwise the Philippines will not be able to recover its economic competitiveness. In foreign policy the nation has strengthened its relations with the U.S., repairing the rift that emerged when the U.S. bases were closed there in the early 1990s.

o Singapore: A change of guard is expected with deputy prime minister Lee Hsien Lung tipped to take over the top job in 2004 to 2005. The policies are expected to be the same, but the style of leadership will likely differ. Prime Minister Goh is amenable and popular and has a relaxed style. Lee is trying hard to appear more relaxed and in the past six months has achieved a remarkable acceptance by the Singaporean public, including the younger generation. The transition is predicted to go smoothly.

Under Lee more structural changes in the economy are to be expected, since last year's crisis and slow growth have been omens for change.

Foreign policy is likely to remain unchanged, however, with Singapore's primarily focus on ASEAN and an alliance with the U.S., ensuring its continuing status as an international player in the middle of southeast Asia.

o Indonesia: There will be both Presidential and Parliamentary elections this year. Since President Megawati Soekarnoputri's PDI-P party is split at the center as well as in the regions, her re-election, which until six months ago was expected to be a walkover, is now more suspect.

In fact, if Golkar becomes the dominant party in the legislature, as is widely expected, then it has fighting chance to win the presidency. However, this is only likely to happen if it can offer a respectable and trustworthy candidate.

If that happens, a more "experienced hand" will take over with a formidable representation in the legislature, which under the new constitution has more powers. This would make Indonesian policies and institutions more credible and more consistent.

Greater attention will be given to foreign policy, which will be more pragmatic because the greater experience in the presidency and in the legislature. This also means Indonesia could again play its leadership role in ASEAN and in east Asia commensurate with its size and with the expectations of the region, as it started to do in last year's ASEAN Summit in Bali.

In turn, ASEAN could again play a more pro-active and positive role in the east Asian region. In the security realm, Indonesia could become more proactive overcoming global and regional terrorism. And in economics, the necessary reforms have a greater chance of being pushed through. While staying non-aligned in its foreign policy, Indonesia could become a better partner for the region and for the world.