Part 2 of 2: The effects of E. Asian leadership changes

Part 2 of 2: The effects of E. Asian leadership changes
on international relations

Jusuf Wanandi, Member, Board of Trustees, Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta

Thailand: Thailand under Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
has an active foreign policy. With his Thai Rak Party having a
solid majority in parliament Thaksin has changed many national
policies. He is also pro-active in foreign policy, as his
chairing of the APEC meeting in Bangkok several months ago
indicated. How far this activity will go will depend partly on
how far ASEAN as a group will support his foreign policy
initiatives.

Thaksin will become a proactive leader among the next
generation of ASEAN leaders and should be watched closely. He has
improved Thailand's economy and regional standing quite
remarkably -- while behaving like the CEO of Thailand.

While popular among the Thai people, he is less so among the
elite, particularly among academia and non-government
organizations because of his disdain for press freedom and the
role of civil society. Whether his economic policies will succeed
in the long-term is still being debated. The problem of terrorism
is southern Thailand could also become more serious.

o Malaysia: New Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi is a consensus
seeker and -- unlike his predecessor Mahathir -- is a proponent
of collective leadership. Perhaps this is what Malaysia needs
after 22 years of activism under Mahathir. Badawi is also more
expert on Islamic issues and could face Malaysian opposition
party PAS more effectively on those issues. Badawi has said he is
not going to change existing policies established by Mahathir
except to fine-tune some of their rough edges.

This means he is likely to stick to a non-aligned foreign
policy, which is pro the developing world's interests and gives
solidarity to Muslim causes. Above all he will make close
cooperation with ASEAN the centerpiece of Malaysia's foreign
policy. His rhetoric is likely to be more subdued than Mahathir's
and that will be good for Malaysia's external relations.

o Philippines: President Arroyo will stand again in the coming
presidential election and has a fighting chance to win, if backed
by the established elite as widely expected. That does not mean
the political divide in the country will necessarily be overcome
as has been shown recently by the abortive coup by some military
officers and the protests on the streets of Manila.

Arroyo is backed by the U.S., which is concerned about the
southern Philippines as a potential training ground for Muslim
terrorists linked with al-Qaeda. Relations with the U.S. have
always been important for the Philippines, for both its economy
and its security.

Hopefully President Arroyo can become a more forceful and
capable president than she was in the first term, where she was
seen as slow to initiate reforms. Otherwise the Philippines will
not be able to recover its economic competitiveness. In foreign
policy the nation has strengthened its relations with the U.S.,
repairing the rift that emerged when the U.S. bases were closed
there in the early 1990s.

o Singapore: A change of guard is expected with deputy prime
minister Lee Hsien Lung tipped to take over the top job in 2004
to 2005. The policies are expected to be the same, but the style
of leadership will likely differ. Prime Minister Goh is amenable
and popular and has a relaxed style. Lee is trying hard to appear
more relaxed and in the past six months has achieved a remarkable
acceptance by the Singaporean public, including the younger
generation. The transition is predicted to go smoothly.

Under Lee more structural changes in the economy are to be
expected, since last year's crisis and slow growth have been
omens for change.

Foreign policy is likely to remain unchanged, however, with
Singapore's primarily focus on ASEAN and an alliance with the
U.S., ensuring its continuing status as an international player
in the middle of southeast Asia.

o Indonesia: There will be both Presidential and Parliamentary
elections this year. Since President Megawati Soekarnoputri's
PDI-P party is split at the center as well as in the regions, her
re-election, which until six months ago was expected to be a
walkover, is now more suspect.

In fact, if Golkar becomes the dominant party in the
legislature, as is widely expected, then it has fighting chance
to win the presidency. However, this is only likely to happen if
it can offer a respectable and trustworthy candidate.

If that happens, a more "experienced hand" will take over with
a formidable representation in the legislature, which under the
new constitution has more powers. This would make Indonesian
policies and institutions more credible and more consistent.

Greater attention will be given to foreign policy, which will
be more pragmatic because the greater experience in the
presidency and in the legislature. This also means Indonesia
could again play its leadership role in ASEAN and in east Asia
commensurate with its size and with the expectations of the
region, as it started to do in last year's ASEAN Summit in Bali.

In turn, ASEAN could again play a more pro-active and positive
role in the east Asian region. In the security realm, Indonesia
could become more proactive overcoming global and regional
terrorism. And in economics, the necessary reforms have a greater
chance of being pushed through. While staying non-aligned in its
foreign policy, Indonesia could become a better partner for the
region and for the world.