Part 1 of 2 : How to make Asia-Pacific peaceful

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Coordinating Minister for Politics and Security, Jakarta

The Iraqi war is now behind us, and the members of the Security Council are back working together with greater consensus than before.

But the Iraqi issue still has a lot of troubling question marks. No one can say with certainty what actors exactly are behind the string of attacks against the coalition forces, the UN office and Iraqis. And no one can precisely predict if these daily attacks are part of a longer term security picture in Iraq or whether they will end next month.

We all want to see Iraq evolve into a stable, peaceful, prosperous and sovereign nation -- there is no question about that. But we must also ask: What happens if that does not transpire?

If the peace cannot be won in Iraq, and if the political and security situations worsen for a longer period of time, we will see serious implications not only for Iraq but also for the Middle East and beyond.

This will apply to Indonesia as there is a high degree of public attention here over what goes on in Iraq. I suppose that it will impact also on the political landscape in the U.S., where the political establishment will be gearing up for elections in November next year. Therefore, we still cannot check off Iraq from our strategic outlook for 2004.

If any of us were asked five years ago what would the primary threat to our national security national, most likely the answer would be anything but terrorism. But today terrorism, which has evolved into a global menace which indiscriminately target innocent civilians, has become a clear and present danger to our national security and to the well-being of our citizens. The Bali bombs exploded in Indonesian territory but it killed citizens of 22 countries, just like the Sept. 11 attacks he the U.S. killed citizens from 70 countries.

The war against terror -- especially in its more sophisticated form -- is new for many of us. But one unique feature in the fight against terror is that it is opening up strategic opportunities. The emerging intelligence and counter-terrorism cooperation between the U.S. -- China is a case in point. Indeed, this region has never seen so much counter-terrorism activities as we have seen in the last 2 years or so.

And in that process, something significant is happening: Namely, the emergence of a new security culture which compels all of us, save none, to work together to fight terror, irrespective of whether you are Indonesian, Filipino, Russian, Chinese, American, Japanese, Australian or what have you. This emerging "cooperate with all" security culture is not necessarily inevitable or something to be taken for granted. Hence, we should nurture it carefully. After all, in the war against terror -- where no nation can go it alone no matter how strong and powerful -- we are all partners, we are all strategic partners, we are all in it for the long haul.

But apart from the strategic opportunies it creates, we must also see to it that our fight against terrorism does not lead to new strategic tensions or aggravate existing ones. If this happens, the terrorists will benefit. So the question that we need to ponder is: How do we handle the war on terrorism in ways which expand opportunities for strategic cooperation and without creating new strategic tensions.

A pertinent feature our international environment is that throughout the Islamic world, there is a battle for the soul of Islam between nations and within nations. We see it in the capital cities, in the Universities, in the streets, in the hamlets, in the mosques. We see it also in Indonesia. How these battles find political and social expressions will determine the political landscape of the region, and also its strategic outlook. Given their demographics, Northeast Asia will probably be less affected by this trend than Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle-East.

But the twist and turns within Islamic communities -- where ever they may be -- will resonate internationally. Remember: In the early 1990s, many of us could not have cared less what happened in Afghanistan when it fell to the Taliban, until Sept. 11 happened, or until we realized that a number of future terrorists were trained in that country.

This growing restlessness within the Islamic communities will continue to be fueled by what happens in the Arab-Israeli conflict. It is sad that the "road map" sponsored by the U.S., EU, Russia and the UN has not made any significant mileage, and indeed at the present moment it seems to be running out of steam.

But we cannot let the situation slip away: The international community must continue to accord the highest priority to the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The establishment of a viable, independent and sovereign Palestinian state -- sooner rather than later -- would be a historic event that would be hugely welcomed by the Islamic communities.

That is why we must recognize the long-term strategic importance of promoting inter-faith dialogue and to efforts to bridge between the Islamic world and the west. When President Bush met with President Megawati in Bali on Oct. 22, we facilitated a special meeting between President Bush and Indonesia's religious leaders, and I think every participant of that event agreed that it turned out to be a very constructive meeting of the minds. The policy input from CSCAP on how to build bridges between the Islamic world and the west will be of great interest to us.

The article is an abridged version of the minister's keynote speech at the General Conference of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP) in Jakarta on Dec. 7.