Park Geun-hye: A woman president for S. Korea?

By Robert J. Fouser

SEOUL: Senator Hillary Clinton isn't the only woman politician who is being coy about her presidential ambitions. Closer to home, Representative Park Geun-hye, vice-president of the Grand National Party (GNP) is making moves to position herself to become a presidential candidate.

On April 13 last week, she met former President Kim Young-sam at his house in Sangdo-dong. This was their first meeting since the funeral of Park's father, President Park Chung Hee, in 1979. The meeting was important because Kim has been a lifelong critic of Park Chung Hee and recently opposed the construction of a memorial hall in his honor.

The real importance of the meeting, however, was its political significance. It is the second meeting in less than a month between Park Geun-hye and a regional kingmaker. To the surprise of political circles, Kim Jong-pil, the leader of the United Liberal Democrats (ULD), attended a meeting of Park's supporters on March 29 that was held at the National Assembly Office Building.

Kim Jong-pil's sway over voters in Taejon and South Chungchong Province weakened in the last election, but he retains considerable influence in the region, while his party holds the casting vote in the National Assembly. Kim played the role of kingmaker in helping Kim Young-sam win in 1992 and Kim Dae-jung in 1997. All indications are that he aims to do the same again in 2002.

Kim Young-sam, meanwhile, would also like to play kingmaker in 2002. Though handicapped by memories of the IMF debacle, he retains influence over his large political base in Pusan and South Kyongsang Province. Anybody who wants to become president must consider the direction of votes in this heavily populated part of the country.

Park's own political base in Taegu and North Kyongsang Province is also large, which puts her in a strong position even without the support of both Kims. Roh Tae-woo was elected with 36 percent of the vote in a four-way race with heavy support from this area. Strong support from across the Kyongsang region combined with conservative support in other parts of the country would make any candidate unstoppable.

Many political commentators have yet to take Park Geun-hye seriously because they have trouble imagining a woman president. No woman has ever been a serious candidate for president in Korea, so there is no history to fall back on for guidance.

The strength of regional-based voting patterns, however, makes it unlikely that gender would affect many votes. As in the past, the election will be decided by two factors: regional identity and, in a close election, young voters in Seoul and Kyonggi Province.

Park Geun-hye is different from other potential women candidates because she is the daughter of former President Park. Though "Park Chung Hee syndrome," a longing for strong decisive leadership that was the hallmark of Park's dictatorial rule, has weakened in recent years, Park Geun-hye has potentially strong appeal among older voters who still respect the former president.

The ascendancy of George W. Bush to the presidency in the United States makes it easier, however indirectly, for people to accept the idea of a father-daughter presidency in Korea.

As things stand now, three scenarios are possible. The first and most likely scenario is a three-way race between GNP leader Lee Hoi-chang, MDP Representative Rhee In-je, and Park Geun-hye. Though evenly matched at first, voters in the Kyongsang region would settle on Park while supporters of Kim Dae-jung would rally around Rhee In-je. Park would be the likely winner, particularly if she had the support of Kim Young-sam or Kim Jong-pil.

For this scenario to come true, disenchanted groups in the GNP would have to defect and ask Park to be their standard bearer. Lee would then get the nomination of a weakened GNP, while front- runner Rhee would get the MDP nomination by default.

The second scenario is a two-way race between Park and a yet- to-emerge candidate from the MDP. This race would be refreshing, but the strength of the Kyongsang base and the GNP party apparatus would ensure a landslide victory for Park. This scenario is unlikely, however, because Lee Hoi-chang, after losing the 1997 election by a tiny margin, desperately wants another chance. The MDP, meanwhile, is unlikely to choose someone who has not run before.

The third scenario is a two-way race between Lee Hoi-chang and Rhee In-je. In this case, Park would decide not to run so that she could build up her strength for the 2007 election. The race would be highly contested, and the outcome would depend heavily on what Kim Young-sam and Kim Jong-pil do. Both would have to side with Rhee for him to win, whereas only one would have to side with Lee to push him over the top.

With so much going for her, Park Geun-hye has a strong chance of winning the presidency in 2002 or 2007. She has a strong regional base, broad cross-generational appeal, and a positive image as a leader.

So, will it be 2002 or 2007? Park dropped a hint to reporters after her meeting with Kim Young-sam. She said, "The former president said that 'the next election is of great importance' and he emphasized repeatedly that 'a person who has the trust of the people must win.'"

"We talked about Lee Hoi-chang," she added, "but I think it best to keep the contents of the discussion private." If this isn't a hint, then what is?

The writer is an associate professor at Kagoshima University in Japan.

-- The Korea Herald/Asia News Network