Palestinians, Israelis tackle daunting issues
By Karin Laub
JERUSALEM (AP): Everything went like clockwork last week.
Israel released 199 Palestinian security prisoners and transferred 7 percent of the West Bank to Yasser Arafat's control, meeting its first obligations under a new land-for- security deal ahead of schedule and showing the world that the days of delays and broken promises are over.
But that was the easy part.
Last Monday, the two sides will begin tackling issues so daunting that already now there is talk about the possibility that they may not reach a final peace accord by September 2000, their self-imposed new deadline.
By then, they will have to agree on the borders of the Palestinian entity in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the status of Jerusalem, the future of Jewish settlements as well as the fate of more than 3 million Palestinian refugees.
Along the way to September 2000, there is another target date, introduced at Israel's insistence in the latest interim accord signed recently. By Feb. 15, the negotiators will have to reach an outline of possible solutions.
This will be the real test of intentions, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said last Friday. "Whoever can't make a framework agreement in five months won't achieve an overall, full agreement even in five years," Barak said.
The opening positions remain as far apart as on Sept. 13, 1993, when Israel and the PLO recognized each other, making negotiations possible for the first time.
The Palestinians want to establish a state in all of the West Bank and Gaza, with east Jerusalem as its capital. They demand the repatriation of all refugees and the dismantling of settlements unwilling to remain under Palestinian sovereignty.
Israel wants to annex parts of the West Bank and Gaza to bring a majority of settlers under Israeli rule. Israel says it will never relinquish parts of Jerusalem and will not permit the return of refugees to areas under its sovereignty.
A few solutions have already been raised, some in scholarly papers and others in informal talks in the mid-1990s between Yossi Beilin, now Israel's justice minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the deputy of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
Ideas included swapping land in Israel's Negev Desert for parts of Gaza to streamline borders, granting far-reaching autonomy to Palestinians in east Jerusalem and setting up the Palestinian capital in Abu Dis, a West Bank suburb of the city.
Under one plan, Israel would bring two-thirds of the 200,000 settlers under its rule by annexing 11 percent of the West Bank, an area that might just be small enough to be acceptable to the Palestinians. Compensation could be paid to Palestinian refugees to help them resettle, either in a Palestinian state or in the diaspora.
But it is unlikely these solutions will be mentioned when Abbas and Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy meet Monday evening for a first round of talks.
Opening positions are naturally tough, but beyond that the Palestinian feel that concerning Jerusalem and the refugees, compromises aren't theirs to make.
Jerusalem is home to Islam's third holiest site, the Al Aqsa Mosque, which is revered by millions of Muslims who would be outraged by Palestinian concessions in the traditionally Arab eastern part of the city.
A Palestinian state would not be able to absorb all refugees and many would have to settle abroad for good. Arafat would have a hard time selling such an arrangements to his constituents, many of whom have relatives in the diaspora.
Perhaps this is why Israeli Cabinet Minister Haim Ramon recently proposed signing a permanent peace treaty on most subjects and leaving Jerusalem and the refugee issue for further negotiations over a longer period.
In an interview with the London-based Jewish Chronicle last week, Barak constructed an even larger escape hatch, saying that if there is no framework agreement by February, the two sides would have to settle for long-term interim accords. This might have been intended as a warning to the Palestinians that if they don't make concessions, they'll end up with very little.
Indeed, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat seems to have very little leverage.
Even if he declares independence unilaterally if there is no deal within a year, he would be left with only 40 percent of the West Bank and two-thirds of the Gaza Strip. Jerusalem would remain in Israeli hands, the refugees would stay in the diaspora and Barak would have no obligation to hold further talks.
Aware of his bad cards, Arafat tried in vain this summer to coordinate positions with the Syrians who are trying to get the Golan Heights back from Israel. Now he faces Israel alone.