Pakistan's nuclear test

Pakistan on Thursday conducted, according to its own report, five nuclear tests. While similar tests earlier this month by India came as a surprise, even apparently to the vast intelligence arms of the United States government, the Pakistan tests were well heralded. Pakistani government ministers, immediately after the Indian tests, began talking about matching them; the opposition came out in support; and public pressure to go ahead was enormous.

And yet, the tests were not inevitable. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, apparently less hawkish than some of his ministers, made that plain. He was looking for a simple trade: If the international community punished India sufficiently, if it was prepared to offer adequate economic and military-supply inducements, Pakistan would not test. The decision to go ahead and set the evil nuclear genie loose on the subcontinent came, quite simply, because the international community could not summon the will or the cooperation to offer those actions.

At the Group of Eight summit, the U.S. was pushing for action, but France and Russia were thinking about their defense contracts and other financial advantages. Similarly, in the United Nations Security Council there was much hand wringing, but no firm action.

Certainly some aid was cut off, some funds withdrawn, most strongly by Japan, one of the nations which (not surprisingly in view of its history) has shown the most anger and frustration at events on the subcontinent. But the overall effect on India, in view of the size of the nation's transgression, was derisory.

At the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Security Forum, a similar scenario developed. Under the leadership of the Philippines, a strong statement was promised slamming the tests. Then India, a dialog partner, objected, and the statement melted away into vague promises of future genteel complaint. An ASEAN statement may not have made a difference, but the inaction certainly added to the general international tone of acceptance of nuclear tests and thus cleared the way for the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Now the damage is done, and two states with a history of serious conflict, engaged in regular border skirmishes over decades, even up to the present day, have (or very, very nearly have) nuclear weapons; excited, nationalistic publics; and, in India's case, an unstable, radical government.

-- The Bangkok Post