Our 58th Independence Day

On Sunday, Aug. 17, we Indonesians will commemorate the country's 58th Independence Day. In the early morning hours of Aug. 17, 58 years ago, two prominent leaders of the country's independence movement, Sukarno and Mohammad Hatta, issued a terse proclamation of the country's independence. The final draft was completed after intense discussions among exponents of the movement and representatives of the restless youth movement.

Today, however, as we approach the 58th anniversary of that historic moment, it is not easy to define our thinking so shortly after the tragic bomb explosion in front of a five-star international hotel in Jakarta. The explosion devastated parts of the JW Marriott Hotel and damaged office towers in the vicinity, besides claiming the lives of 12 people and injuring 147 others. It also caused a serious setback in the cautious optimism and the growing self-confidence that had become apparent, just 10 months after the devastating Bali bombing. Most probably, that was precisely the objective of the perpetrators of the Marriott bombing. Besides destroying valuable property and killing so many human beings, they also intended to shatter the country's self- confidence and create fear, thereby causing a widespread feeling of uncertainty.

While the country seems to be adrift with uncertainty and the national leadership is beset by internal squabbling among a political elite that blatantly displays its greed, the question arises of what our attitude should be as we commemorate the 58th anniversary of independence. A discrepancy exists between the growing concern of the general population and the cynicism of the well-positioned, both in government and in the private sector.

The situation was vastly different 58 years ago. At that time, a strong idealism prevailed among Indonesians, further fortified by the conviction that an independent Indonesia would be capable of restoring the dignity of the people and of bringing prosperity to millions of Indonesians. The difficulties and obstacles that had to be overcome were formidable, but the national leadership under president Sukarno, vice president Mohamad Hatta and the brilliant prime minister Sutan Sjahrir, who mastered the intricate nuances of the then prevailing international political situation, was confident that eventually the Netherlands would relinquish its historical claim over its former colony and that the international community would recognize the sovereignty of an independent Indonesia.

An invitation from Ho Chi Minh, who proclaimed Vietnam's independence on Sept. 8, 1945, in Hanoi, to "coordinate Vietnam's and Indonesia's struggle against Western imperialism and capitalism", was politely ignored by the Indonesian leadership on the calculation that the Netherlands would yield sooner than the French, whom the Vietnamese had to face. That prediction proved accurate, and the Vietnamese situation took a turn for the worse after one superpower, the United States -- with its formidable military might -- became involved in the conflict.

In theory, Indonesia was thus in a much more advantageous position than Vietnam, and even more so since in 1966 this country embarked on a new phase in history with the emergence of the New Order government under president Soeharto. After the chaotic leadership of the aging president Sukarno collapsed, political stability and economic rationality came to the foreground. Economic aid, primarily from Western donor countries and Japan, plus a dramatic increase in world oil prices, which powered Indonesia as a net oil exporter, created a sort of economic boom in this country. Rapid construction of the country's neglected infrastructure, an adequate food supply, improved education and public health care drew the world's attention to the fact that a strong and modern Indonesia that conducted a responsible foreign policy -- was emerging onto the stage of world politics.

At present, however, the assessment of discrepancies between Indonesia and Vietnam has become vastly different. Now the world lauds Vietnam for its impressive economic growth, its domestic political stability, its hard-working people and a government that seems determined to eradicate corruption. And, most importantly, no bombs have exploded in front of any five-star hotels in Hanoi, or at the beach resorts near Hue.

Still, we might well ask ourselves if such a depressing attitude is justified this Independence Day. It is interesting to note the view that has been expressed by a number of foreign economists -- such as Norbert Walter, the Deutsche Bank's chief economist -- that Indonesia's economic growth is most probably much higher than official statistics suggest. In a recent speech in Jakarta, Dr. Walter said that the 20 percent increase in electricity consumption did not match the 4 percent economic growth figure forecast for 2004. Hubert Neiss, who was previously with the International Monetary Fund in charge of Indonesia, is also of the view that Indonesia's economic growth is probably higher than officially estimated.

All these positive signals, however, are obviously dependent on the continued existence of a favorable international climate, a firm national leadership that maintains political stability, and a sound macroeconomic policy. The most significant conclusion that we can draw from the views expressed by international experts is that in reality, the working zeal and the innovative capabilities of the Indonesian population have remained high. That means that there is in fact no justification for pessimism, provided that the national leadership maintains a clear vision and the political elite refrains from making insensible moves in the months ahead, pending the onset of the national elections.

As we commemorate our 58th Independence Day, let us nurture a quiet confidence while retaining a sense of realism in facing a difficult future. The exquisite line from the Indonesian national anthem provides us with an invigorating inspiration: "Let her spirit arise for Great Indonesia."