Only elite few may determine succession issue

Only elite few may determine succession issue

By Haryoso

SEMARANG (JP): The question of who will succeed President
Soeharto, if and when he steps down, is very likely to be settled
by the ruling political elite, a political scientist says.

"Our political culture does not really recognize the mechanism
of leadership succession," Susilo Utomo of the Diponegoro
University said in a seminar here on Monday.

Succession will likely be determined by an elite few, while
the masses will be excluded from the process of selecting or
electing the new president, Susilo said.

"It's no wonder that the leaders of certain political groups
keep telling us that it is unethical to talk about succession.
They're virtually saying that the people should not even be
bothered about this issue."

Debate over who's going to succeed President Soeharto appears
to have become a favorite pastime for scholars and politicians
over the last decade. But the debates have remained largely
academic with the incumbent getting reelected all the time
without any opposition.

Golkar, the dominant political organization, has refused to be
drawn into the succession debate, with chairman Harmoko stressing
that it is unethical to even talk about it while the incumbent is
still leading the nation.

Soeharto, now 74 years old, will end his current term in
office in 1998. Whether or not he will run for a sixth term is
still anybody's guess at this stage, but the debate continues.

The Monday seminar entitled "Succession Based on the
Indonesian Legal System" also heard the opinions of Harun Al
Rasid, an expert on administrative law from Cokroaminoto
University in Yogyakarta, and Muchsan, an expert on public
administration from Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta. Around
500 students attended the meeting.

Susilo senses that there's a conscious attempt by the
country's political elite to exclude people from the succession
process.

Each time the subject of succession is debated, those who
raise or join the debate will be quickly frowned upon, and the
debate terminated, he said. "I think whether the succession will
be bloody or peaceful will depend very much on the ability of the
ruling elite to reach a consensus."

Even Indonesia's growing middle class, which is widely
expected to push for political reforms like their counterparts in
other Asian countries, is prevented from taking part in the
succession process. They are powerless when it comes to making
the process more transparent, he said.

"It's a pity that the Indonesian middle classes are still too
dependent on the ruling political elite. I doubt that these
middle classes will ever take part in `high politics'. We can't
expect them to make their presence felt," he said.

Asked if he thought Soeharto would run again after 1998,
Susilo responded:

"Politically, Pak Harto is still fit and strong. And given the
current political climate in Indonesia, Pak Harto will continue
to lead this nation.

"There's no reason for him to step down because he is still
healthy and the 1945 Constitution allows him to continue to
rule."

Harun in his presentation focused his argument on the misuse
of the term "succession".

Literally speaking, succession only occurs when a leader is
replaced before the completion of his term, he said. If the
president is replaced during an election held at the end of his
term, it cannot be called succession.

He pointed out that Indonesia experienced one succession when
Sukarno was removed from power in 1967 by the Provisional
People's Consultative Assembly, which also installed Soeharto as
Indonesia's second president.