Only elite few may determine succession issue

By Haryoso

SEMARANG (JP): The question of who will succeed President Soeharto, if and when he steps down, is very likely to be settled by the ruling political elite, a political scientist says.

"Our political culture does not really recognize the mechanism of leadership succession," Susilo Utomo of the Diponegoro University said in a seminar here on Monday.

Succession will likely be determined by an elite few, while the masses will be excluded from the process of selecting or electing the new president, Susilo said.

"It's no wonder that the leaders of certain political groups keep telling us that it is unethical to talk about succession. They're virtually saying that the people should not even be bothered about this issue."

Debate over who's going to succeed President Soeharto appears to have become a favorite pastime for scholars and politicians over the last decade. But the debates have remained largely academic with the incumbent getting reelected all the time without any opposition.

Golkar, the dominant political organization, has refused to be drawn into the succession debate, with chairman Harmoko stressing that it is unethical to even talk about it while the incumbent is still leading the nation.

Soeharto, now 74 years old, will end his current term in office in 1998. Whether or not he will run for a sixth term is still anybody's guess at this stage, but the debate continues.

The Monday seminar entitled "Succession Based on the Indonesian Legal System" also heard the opinions of Harun Al Rasid, an expert on administrative law from Cokroaminoto University in Yogyakarta, and Muchsan, an expert on public administration from Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta. Around 500 students attended the meeting.

Susilo senses that there's a conscious attempt by the country's political elite to exclude people from the succession process.

Each time the subject of succession is debated, those who raise or join the debate will be quickly frowned upon, and the debate terminated, he said. "I think whether the succession will be bloody or peaceful will depend very much on the ability of the ruling elite to reach a consensus."

Even Indonesia's growing middle class, which is widely expected to push for political reforms like their counterparts in other Asian countries, is prevented from taking part in the succession process. They are powerless when it comes to making the process more transparent, he said.

"It's a pity that the Indonesian middle classes are still too dependent on the ruling political elite. I doubt that these middle classes will ever take part in `high politics'. We can't expect them to make their presence felt," he said.

Asked if he thought Soeharto would run again after 1998, Susilo responded:

"Politically, Pak Harto is still fit and strong. And given the current political climate in Indonesia, Pak Harto will continue to lead this nation.

"There's no reason for him to step down because he is still healthy and the 1945 Constitution allows him to continue to rule."

Harun in his presentation focused his argument on the misuse of the term "succession".

Literally speaking, succession only occurs when a leader is replaced before the completion of his term, he said. If the president is replaced during an election held at the end of his term, it cannot be called succession.

He pointed out that Indonesia experienced one succession when Sukarno was removed from power in 1967 by the Provisional People's Consultative Assembly, which also installed Soeharto as Indonesia's second president.