One Asia or withering Asia?

Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network/Bangkok

A bad omen threatens to decrease the significance of the upcoming East Asia Summit (EAS) as China and Japan are still tussling over its modality. As the region's two most powerful countries do not have complementary yin and yang positions, there is less of a chance that the summit will be all that successful.

The summit should be an occasion for everyone involved to display their visions and solidarity. Instead it has become an opportunity for airing dirty linen.

If the EAS gets off the ground with Beijing and Tokyo blowing hot and cool, future discussions and cooperation would certainly become more problematic. The two countries must serve as pillars of stability and understanding, not insecurity and mutual hatred. Their mutual problems must be contained and neutralized before they become widespread.

Beyond all the diplomatic fanfare, leaders of the countries in the "ASEAN 10+3+1+2" formula (the 10 ASEAN countries plus Japan, China and South Korea plus India plus Australia and New Zealand) are making history as they converge for the first time on Wednesday (Dec. 14) in Kuala Lumpur. For a total of 150 minutes, the leaders of the 16 countries will be left among themselves in the retreat to set the course for a new Asia.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi was succinct when he said that the leaders themselves would set the agenda, not lower- ranking officials. This reflects the confidence of the host country that the meeting can be successful. Despite the obstacles the meeting presents, Kuala Lumpur is ambitious and has the tools and wisdom that can make this happen.

Former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad was credited with raising the idea of East Asian-ness over a decade ago, even though it was narrowly defined. It is only natural, then, that Badawi is now trying to bring this new gung-ho spirit to the next level, which can hopefully lead to more broad cooperation and more openness amongst Asia countries.

As Malaysia is chair of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), the Non-aligned Movement (NAM) and ASEAN, Badawi has become the most powerful Asian leader when it comes to helping set a course for the future of the Muslim world and the developing world. He also is helping set the agenda for what has been called the Asian century. He has displayed diplomatic finesse in revitalizing the OIC and the NAM.

But within Asia, succeeding with this progressive approach is more challenging because of the latent prejudices and discrimination that prevents nations from forging closer relations. After all, history has showed that the Asian nations have spent more time than others in belittling each other and excluding one another. For instance, last week, Mahathir was a bit vicious in opposing Australia joining the EAS.

After thousands of years of interaction, neighboring peoples in Asia have yet to develop comfortable relations marked by trust, let alone common views. Regional history has been marked by cycles of hatred and divisiveness. Lasting unity has been difficult to achieve. Badawi will leave a legacy that no other ASEAN leader will match if he can pull this off. If the upcoming EAS can be remembered more for highlighting commonalties, and not divisions, it can be a catalyst for more cooperation in other important international meetings and development schemes in store in coming months.

What kind of Asia will emerge from this summit? Will this new Asia be One Asia or the same old fragmented Asia i.e. East Asia? Will it be an Asia that includes India and Australia? Can every Asian country expect to be allowed to compete on a level playing field in building this new Asia?

Judging from the summit's preparatory meetings and "non- exclusive" pronouncements over the past few months, it would not be wrong to say that the emerging Asia will initially be rather "exclusive" under the rubic of East Asia and very much "China- oriented". For the time being both ASEAN and China wanted that in the first place.

As a group, ASEAN believes that it can trust China more than it can with Japan and Korea, or other newcomers, when it comes to looking out for Asian interests.

In the post-Cold-War era, ASEAN's and China's interests coincide due to a confluence of economic and political imperatives. The 48 "mechanisms of cooperation" between ASEAN and China, which have taken only a decade to build, are testimony to joint commitments and close cooperation in all fields. Although Japan and the US have enjoyed good relations for longer than ASEAN and China have, they have fewer such mechanisms to show for it.

But how long can such close ties last? Of course, nobody knows. After all, it was only a decade ago that both sides were at each other's throats over disputed claims in the South China Sea.

So it helps to explain why ASEAN and China want to ensure that the "ASEAN plus three" process, or APT, continues to serve as a foundation for community building in the region -- not the new EAS, which is just another forum for dialogues and confidence buildings.

For now, Machiavellian brinkmanship has taken over many facets of international relations in Asia. Any meetings involving ASEAN, China and Japan in the foreseeable future will not be marked by reconciliation. ASEAN and China still have lots of opportunities to maximize their unique strategic commonalties.

But it would be a shame if the EAS cannot imbed at least some basic new sense of "one Asia" that encompasses India, as well as Australia and New Zealand. There is nothing threatening about this, despite some high anxiety expressed by ASEAN members, which fear that their grouping could disappear with the coming of bigger and richer partners.

The gathering of leaders at the EAS can be likened to a backyard garden with flowers of different shapes and colors. They represent the great diversity in East Asia's political spectrum, including constitutional monarchies, the world's largest democracy, the largest communist country, democracies based on people power and on strong governments. The countries taking part have varying mixtures of Asian to Western values -- truly globalised Asia.

Whatever the EAS leaders agree to will have far-reaching ramifications for Asia. The future of Asia resides within their minds -- the possible outcomes could be as small as a bowl of wonton soup or as big as a bowl of Caesar salad. The choice is theirs.