One Asia or withering Asia?

One Asia or withering Asia?

Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network/Bangkok

A bad omen threatens to decrease the significance of the
upcoming East Asia Summit (EAS) as China and Japan are still
tussling over its modality. As the region's two most powerful
countries do not have complementary yin and yang positions, there
is less of a chance that the summit will be all that successful.

The summit should be an occasion for everyone involved to
display their visions and solidarity. Instead it has become an
opportunity for airing dirty linen.

If the EAS gets off the ground with Beijing and Tokyo blowing
hot and cool, future discussions and cooperation would certainly
become more problematic. The two countries must serve as pillars
of stability and understanding, not insecurity and mutual hatred.
Their mutual problems must be contained and neutralized before
they become widespread.

Beyond all the diplomatic fanfare, leaders of the countries in
the "ASEAN 10+3+1+2" formula (the 10 ASEAN countries plus Japan,
China and South Korea plus India plus Australia and New Zealand)
are making history as they converge for the first time on
Wednesday (Dec. 14) in Kuala Lumpur. For a total of 150 minutes,
the leaders of the 16 countries will be left among themselves in
the retreat to set the course for a new Asia.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi was succinct when he
said that the leaders themselves would set the agenda, not lower-
ranking officials. This reflects the confidence of the host
country that the meeting can be successful. Despite the obstacles
the meeting presents, Kuala Lumpur is ambitious and has the tools
and wisdom that can make this happen.

Former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad was credited with
raising the idea of East Asian-ness over a decade ago, even
though it was narrowly defined. It is only natural, then, that
Badawi is now trying to bring this new gung-ho spirit to the next
level, which can hopefully lead to more broad cooperation and
more openness amongst Asia countries.

As Malaysia is chair of the Organization of the Islamic
Conference (OIC), the Non-aligned Movement (NAM) and ASEAN,
Badawi has become the most powerful Asian leader when it comes to
helping set a course for the future of the Muslim world and the
developing world. He also is helping set the agenda for what has
been called the Asian century. He has displayed diplomatic
finesse in revitalizing the OIC and the NAM.

But within Asia, succeeding with this progressive approach is
more challenging because of the latent prejudices and
discrimination that prevents nations from forging closer
relations. After all, history has showed that the Asian nations
have spent more time than others in belittling each other and
excluding one another. For instance, last week, Mahathir was a
bit vicious in opposing Australia joining the EAS.

After thousands of years of interaction, neighboring peoples
in Asia have yet to develop comfortable relations marked by
trust, let alone common views. Regional history has been marked
by cycles of hatred and divisiveness. Lasting unity has been
difficult to achieve. Badawi will leave a legacy that no other
ASEAN leader will match if he can pull this off. If the upcoming
EAS can be remembered more for highlighting commonalties, and not
divisions, it can be a catalyst for more cooperation in other
important international meetings and development schemes in store
in coming months.

What kind of Asia will emerge from this summit? Will this new
Asia be One Asia or the same old fragmented Asia i.e. East Asia?
Will it be an Asia that includes India and Australia? Can every
Asian country expect to be allowed to compete on a level playing
field in building this new Asia?

Judging from the summit's preparatory meetings and "non-
exclusive" pronouncements over the past few months, it would not
be wrong to say that the emerging Asia will initially be rather
"exclusive" under the rubic of East Asia and very much "China-
oriented". For the time being both ASEAN and China wanted that in
the first place.

As a group, ASEAN believes that it can trust China more than
it can with Japan and Korea, or other newcomers, when it comes to
looking out for Asian interests.

In the post-Cold-War era, ASEAN's and China's interests
coincide due to a confluence of economic and political
imperatives. The 48 "mechanisms of cooperation" between ASEAN and
China, which have taken only a decade to build, are testimony to
joint commitments and close cooperation in all fields. Although
Japan and the US have enjoyed good relations for longer than
ASEAN and China have, they have fewer such mechanisms to show for
it.

But how long can such close ties last? Of course, nobody
knows. After all, it was only a decade ago that both sides were
at each other's throats over disputed claims in the South China
Sea.

So it helps to explain why ASEAN and China want to ensure that
the "ASEAN plus three" process, or APT, continues to serve as a
foundation for community building in the region -- not the new
EAS, which is just another forum for dialogues and confidence
buildings.

For now, Machiavellian brinkmanship has taken over many facets
of international relations in Asia. Any meetings involving ASEAN,
China and Japan in the foreseeable future will not be marked by
reconciliation. ASEAN and China still have lots of opportunities
to maximize their unique strategic commonalties.

But it would be a shame if the EAS cannot imbed at least some
basic new sense of "one Asia" that encompasses India, as well as
Australia and New Zealand. There is nothing threatening about
this, despite some high anxiety expressed by ASEAN members, which
fear that their grouping could disappear with the coming of
bigger and richer partners.

The gathering of leaders at the EAS can be likened to a
backyard garden with flowers of different shapes and colors. They
represent the great diversity in East Asia's political spectrum,
including constitutional monarchies, the world's largest
democracy, the largest communist country, democracies based on
people power and on strong governments. The countries taking part
have varying mixtures of Asian to Western values -- truly
globalised Asia.

Whatever the EAS leaders agree to will have far-reaching
ramifications for Asia. The future of Asia resides within their
minds -- the possible outcomes could be as small as a bowl of
wonton soup or as big as a bowl of Caesar salad. The choice is
theirs.