Odds lengthen in Argentina against Peronism

By Hugh O'Shaughnessy

LONDON: Will this weekend bring the death of the myth of Argentina's strong man par excellence, the late Gen. Juan Domingo Peron? The myth has captivated Argentines since the mid-1940s but, emptied of the political content that once stirred up nationalistic passion, it may not survive the cold light of 1999.

Argentine voters go to the poll on Oct. 24 to choose a successor to Carlos Saul Menem the Peronist whom they have returned to the presidency since he was first voted into office in 1989. As they prepare to cast their ballots, the odds are lengthening against any other Peronist bearing the standard of the movement into the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace in Buenos Aires. In fact there may never be another Peronist president.

At the height of his popularity, when he came to power in elections in 1946, the general and his intriguing blonde wife, Evita, used to their advantage a powerful combination of concern for the poor; pride in the nation; the ideals of Latin-American unity; and the glamour that radiated from the magnetic Evita herself.

Despite evidence that later emerged of waste and corruption and a political program that proved futile in practice, the Perons dazzled rich and poor alike, and the general won a further presidential term in 1951. He was eventually tossed out by a coup led by the Argentine navy and the ultra-conservative Argentine Catholic Church in 1955, but he continued to try to wield influence from exile -- first from Paraguay where the dictator Gen. Alfredo Stroessner took him in and later from the Spain of Generalissimo Francisco Franco. The poor man's friend bizarrely chose two notably right-wing regimes as refuge.

Amid much confusion he won presidential elections again in 1973, but died the following year. His supporters divided into factions that were at war with each other in the bloodiest and most pitiless way. Peron left a legacy of chaos in which young radicals and old conservative business men and landowners alike claimed him for their own, despite the chaos of his first period in office.

The Peronists were not to get another taste of power until July 1989, but again the old magic of Peron, his wife Evita and her tragic death from cancer brought electoral victory to a man who proclaimed his fidelity to their memory.

Carlos Menem was the son of a poor Muslim immigrant from Syria who had made a living as a peddler with a donkey around the mountain villages of the Argentine Andes. Embracing Christianity, Carlos soon established himself as a clever politician and rose to the governorship of his remote and poverty-stricken province of La Rioja.

His record in his native province was one of supreme financial irresponsibility, yet he went on to gain the presidency on the basis of old-style Peronist nationalism and a vow to recover the Falkland Islands from Britain -- if necessary with fire and sword.

In the event, Peronism under Menem has become more politically incoherent than ever before. Far from putting into effect a left- wing nationalist policy he has been positively Thatcherite in his drive to privates government assets, many of which have been snapped up by foreign multinationals.

Far from recapturing the Falklands, he got himself invited to London and to tea with the Queen in Buckingham Palace. He has brought about new splits to the Peronist party and fought long and hard -- but ultimately unsuccessfully -- for the chance of standing for president once again.

He is hardly on speaking terms with Eduardo Duhalde, the former governor of the province of Buenos Aires who against Menem's fierce hostility won the Peronist presidential candidacy. The opinion polls in Argentina this week show that Duhalde is trailing badly behind the leading candidate Fernando de la Rua, a former mayor of Buenos Aires who is a middle-of-the-road politician almost totally devoid of charisma but with a reputation for honesty.

If politics were a rational occupation, next week would see the final gasps of Peronism as a vote-winning phenomenon. But it isn't. So the creed of the Gen. Juan Domingo Peron -- whatever it might be -- could just survive one more time.

-- Observer News Service