Observers ponder Wiranto's next move
Observers ponder Wiranto's next move
By Emmy Fitri
JAKARTA (JP): Although he is facing imminent retirement,
cabinet suspension and censure for alleged human rights abuse, no
one doubts that Gen. Wiranto will fight back.
The question is what kind of counterattack the four-star
general will launch.
On the surface, Wiranto projects a calm, Javanese demure,
belying talk that he would resort to such a radical move as a
coup.
This same reserved and aloof nature also leads some to
disregard the talk of a military takeover.
"Wiranto is a true Javanese who reserves his emotions. Don't
expect him to show his feelings in public," observer Kastorius
Sinaga told The Jakarta Post.
His friends portray a composed Wiranto as a modest and low
profile military man, but cynics say he only possesses the
"mentality of an adjutant."
Kastorius described him as "not a kind of person who dares to
take radical actions."
His exploits in the past few years suggest that underneath the
staid exterior is a man with savvy political skills who is no
stranger to the power play.
He has survived the political whirlwinds which swept the
country in the last three years with his power relatively intact.
Two presidents have fallen by the wayside, and his widely-
regarded political parry, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Prabowo Subianto, has
been banished from formal politics.
Wiranto was first noticed when he served as ex-president
Soeharto's adjutant from 1989 to 1993. This was his ticket to the
top military echelon.
From there his influence grew. Well-known for his fatherly
leadership, Wiranto was reportedly popular among his soldiers.
In 1993 he was appointed minister of defense/armed forces
commander.
He also became popular with reform minded advocates in the
mid-1990s when he introduced the possibility of military reform.
The contradictions are inescapable. While many now regard him
as a wanted man for his alleged responsibility for the violence
in East Timor, people forget that in the weeks leading up to
Soeharto's fall, Wiranto was the hope of many in helping topple
what seemed at the time as Soeharto's impenetrable hegemony.
Even so, minutes after Soeharto's statement, Wiranto stepped
up before a nationally televised audience and pledged to
faithfully carry out his duty to protect the new president and
former president.
Many see this as a sign of his continued closeness with
Soeharto. There is further speculation that the combination of
Soeharto's money and Wiranto loyalists in the TNI only heightens
the prospect of a radical political move.
Wiranto has the means and, given that he has been put in a
corner, he now has the motive.
Top military brass have brushed off suggestions of a possible
takeover, saying that TNI as an institution it is loyal to the
government.
It is debatable whether individuals close to Wiranto and
dissatisfied with the public bludgeoning of the military's
reputation are strong enough to take significant action on its
own.
J. Kristiadi of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies said that Wiranto must realize that his options are
limited.
"If he thinks that he will be supported by the whole element
in TNI, then he is too confident," he told the Post.
"If he wants to, he can fight at the trial," he said referring
to the tribunal for East Timor human rights violations.
He pointed out that Wiranto had fallen out of favor with the
military elite, particularly Lt. Gen. Agum Gumelar and Lt. Gen.
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, for recommending them to the cabinet
which effectively ended their military careers.
Kristiadi also said that Wiranto was unlikely to use his non-
military links with various Muslim groups as they were too weak
to compete with the likes of the 30-million strong Nahdlatul
Ulama which ardently backs the President.
Kristiadi was adamant that Wiranto is on the decline, that he
is history.
Kastorius believes that expecting the military to support
Wiranto was too much.
"The military is not a political party whose leaders have cult
status and die-hard followers," he said.
Wiranto's final trump card is his cabinet post, and he seems
determined to hang on to it to bargain for his safety.
Despite predictions of Wiranto's demise, some are still
adamant that Wiranto wields enough power to throw the nation into
chaos.
Sociologist Tamrin Amal Tamagola speculated that the recent
unrest in various parts of the country was the work of an
invisible hand connected with major political events. He pointed
out that violence erupted in Ambon, Ternate and North Halmahera
only a day after Wiranto was summoned by KPP HAM for questioning.
Tamrin also claimed there was conjuncture between bloody
unrest in the country in the past four years and Wiranto's own
exploits.
With or without a direct order from Wiranto, the men behind
him would work to spread unrest, he warned.