Observers fear violations in coming election

JAKARTA (JP): Two political observers fear rampant violations will occur in the upcoming general elections, but another observer expressed confidence that election organizers would be more mindful of people's call for fair play.

Political lecturers Ramlan Surbakty and Aribowo of the Surabaya-based Airlangga University and Maswadi Rauf of the University of Indonesia in Depok, West Java, agreed, separately, that no significant improvement, in terms of the rate of violations of election rules, could be expected in the May 29 poll.

"I'm pessimistic (whether improvement is impending)," Ramlan said. "Even now violations of rules are already taking place. They will peak on the polling day."

He said despite the public becoming more critical and the increasing pressure from all directions for a better general election, those who organized the general elections were mostly people setting their caps at better positions in the administration afterward.

"This election is organized by government officials, the bureaucracy and the Armed Forces. They side with (the ruling) Golkar," he said. "They are likely to compete to show that they worked hard for (Golkar's) victory in the election. They will want to stake their claims for greater power (in the establishment of new administration) in 1998."

Maswadi agreed.

"Yes, there will be some improvements because people are more critical now. But I'm pessimistic that there will be significant change," Maswadi said.

"There will be violations, only not as blatant as those in the 1992 election," he said. "Then, the organizers violated rules without even blinking an eye. Now, at least they will take furtive glances to the right and left before committing violations."

Aribowo offered a different opinion. "Not only are people becoming more critical, they are braver in fighting for what they believe in," he said. "No, there will be fewer violations of election rules because, under the public's increasingly watchful eyes and with the threats of legal measures, there will be fewer opportunities for violating the rules."

In their book Pemilu: Pelanggaran Asas Luber (1995), Alexander Irwan and Edriana cited at least 1019 cases of violations of the principles of "direct, general, free and confidential elections" in the 1992 general election.

The violations were mostly committed by those with access to all the election stages, including ballot counting; they were members of the bureaucracy, Golkar, security officers and election committees at various levels.

The kinds of violations listed were; intimidating voters to vote for Golkar, violence against those who supported the minority political parties -- the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), and barring them from polling booths.

During the past several months, government officials have repeatedly striven to assure the public that the coming general election would not only see a bigger turnout, but also better procedures. "A quality general election" has been the catchword recently.

The PPP, Golkar and the PDI will contest 425 of the 500 coveted seats in the House of Representatives; the remaining 75 will go to the Armed Forces whose members do not vote. Golkar has won, without significant challenge, the last five elections held under the New Order administration since 1971.

"I'm not too optimistic that more people will go to the polls. In 1992, those who could not accept Golkar or PPP, usually young people, still had the alternative, namely PDI. Now I'm not too sure," said Ramlan.

"I see improvements from one general election to the next," Aribowo said. "At least, I hope there will be an improvement this year too."

"It's also a matter of how you see things," Maswadi said. "Pessimists would say how come there's been no significant change in the last 20 years. Optimists would say there have been improvements, no matter how minute. In this case, at least, the violations won't be committed so blatantly."

Aribowo, however, questioned whether the turnout had a direct bearing on democratization. "Liberal countries such as the United States and those in Western Europe don't usually have high election turnouts, in contrast to eastern European countries or Australia where it is mandatory for citizens to vote.

"The more 'democratic' a country, the fewer citizens go to the polls because voting is often not a matter of participation but of mobilization," he said. "If there are more critical people, that means Indonesia is becoming even more democratic, but would that result in a higher turnout?"

"Democracy is not only about general elections. It's a five yearly monument, but the real politics are being played out there by various interests groups," he said. (swe)