Observers doubt Golkar independence declaration

JAKARTA (JP): Political observers have expressed doubt that Golkar will follow through on its "lip service" declaration of independence from its two main supporters, the Armed Forces and the bureaucracy.

Bambang Triantoro and Afan Gaffar separately agreed that the dominant political grouping could only retain its long-standing political supremacy with the help of the two powerful bodies.

The observers agreed that Golkar's power hinged on its close ties with both the Armed Forces (ABRI) and the bureaucracy.

"Although Golkar has declared its independence from the bureaucracy and the Armed Forces, it will still rely on these two pillars to earn its votes at next year's general election," Bambang told The Jakarta Post by telephone.

Bambang, a former Armed Forces chief of sociopolitical affairs, said he believed there would not be any significant changes in Golkar's strategy for the next election, scheduled for May 1999.

"Golkar's statement that it is disassociating itself from the bureaucracy and the Armed Forces will remain as lip service," Bambang said.

"It will be difficult to erase what has been a habit for 30 years," he said.

He cited what he believed was Golkar's unreadiness to accommodate diversity in opinions and concepts, even within the organization's own internal structure.

"They (Golkar officials) said during Golkar's extraordinary congress in July that it was natural to have different opinions.

"Now they have just discharged outspoken legislators who had opinions and ideas which were different from the Golkar executive board," he said.

Though admitting that a decline in its share of the vote was possible, Golkar leaders said over the weekend they would still retain their supremacy in next year's election. Deputy chairman Abdul Gafur said they could secure 50 percent of votes cast in the election.

Bambang said all regional and lower-level military commanders, as well as governors, regents and subdistrict heads nationwide would vote Golkar in the election.

"All governors, regents and subdistrict heads are still Golkar cadres. None are from other political parties," he said.

Bambang did not dismiss the possibility that Golkar would use "money politics" to maintain its grip on power at next year's election.

"It's not impossible because the nation is in a crisis, the people's purchasing power is limited and the unemployment rate is rising," he said.

"Also, money is not haram (forbidden) in politics because any party will do anything to gain as many votes as possible," he said.

He said he believed Golkar could still retain its supremacy and stand among the election's "big five" contestants.

Afan, however, said it would not be easy for Golkar to repeat its "old" electioneering techniques.

"The use of money politics and mobilization of members of the Armed Forces and the Corps of Civil Servants will not be as easy as in the past because the election will be tightly supervised," Afan told the Post.

He said there was no guarantee that Golkar's traditional allies -- namely members of the Corps of Civil Servants -- would continue to support the grouping in the post-Soeharto era.

"Lower-ranking government officials will be a serious (challenge) to Golkar because they no longer feel obliged to vote for it," he said.

Speaking on Golkar's chances of yet another election victory, Afan said the political organization's fate rested on the credibility of its cadres.

"It is the cadres' selling points that will help Golkar in next year's election," he said.

He said that Golkar could also still rely on the support of many other traditional allies around the country.

"Golkar still has around 250 affiliated social and mass organizations. Only a few organizations have declared their independence from the grouping," he said. (imn)