Number of poor people hits 79.4m
JAKARTA (JP): The number of Indonesians living below the poverty line has soared to 79.4 million, about 40 percent of Indonesia's population, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) said yesterday.
BPS chief Suwito Sugito said that the figures would increase to 95.8 million, or about 48 percent of the total population of 202 million by the end of this year because no economic recovery was in sight.
"Some time ago we were told by experts that we were a candidate to become an Asian tiger like Thailand and Malaysia. Now we are not even a cat," he told the media in his office.
In term of percentage points, the number of poor people in the country at the halfway point in this year is comparable to the 40.1 percent in 1976, when the agency first began national census surveys, he said.
"In term of percentage points, we have regressed to 1976," Sugito said.
The difference is that people now have more assets than in 1976, he said, adding that the country had also developed a modern infrastructure in the intervening years.
In 1996, only 22.5 million, or 11.3 percent of the country's population, were judged to be living below the poverty line, he added.
In 1996, 9.7 percent of the urban population were thought to be living in poverty, but this figure has now risen to 28.8 percent, or 22.6 million people.
The numbers of the poor in rural areas has jumped to 56.8 million, 45.6 percent of the rural population. In 1996 the corresponding figure was a mere 12.3 percent.
In urban areas BPS adjudge people who do not have a minimum daily calorie intake of 2,100 calories per person and a minimum monthly income of Rp 52,470 per person to be living below the poverty line.
In 1996 a monthly income of Rp 38,246 per person was held to be sufficient to stave of poverty, according to the bureau.
In rural areas the lower monthly income of Rp 41,600 per person is used to define poverty. In 1996 this figure was set at Rp 27,450, he added.
He explained that the most recent estimates of numbers of people living in poverty were not based on the biannual national census survey, which is due next year, but on macroeconomic indicators including the inflation rate, contraction in income, changing consumption patterns, population growth, and savings rates.
Income
The country's per capita income would fall as the result of the forecast 10 percent contraction in the economy, he said, adding that purchasing power would also be weakened by the expected inflation rate of 80 percent. Inflation was running at 46.6 percent in the first half of this year.
"Savings rates among lower-income groups are now negative, while middle-income groups register an average of 13 percent," he said.
He said BPS had made the new estimates at the request of policy makers, who wanted their own figures to compare with an announcement made by the World Bank and other institutions which stated that the number of people living in poverty would reach 50 million by the end of this year.
"Our figure is the most realistic one," he claimed.
He said the estimates showed that the government must strive to improve the purchasing power of low-income groups so that they could continue to meet their basic food needs.
He also said that job creation programs were very important.
"It is imperative that the government create a stable environment for doing business," he said, adding that people should not stage street demonstrations because this only compounded the current instability.
He stressed that a return to political stability was crucial if the country was to recover from the economic crisis.
In a recent agreement with the IMF provisions were made for the government to begin a social safety net program to help the poor survive the economic crisis. Total funds channeled into this initiative are expected to reach 7.5 percent of gross domestic product. (rei)
Table: Number of poor people (1976-1998)
Percentage Absolute (in million)
Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total
------------------------------------------------
1976 38.8 40.4 40.1 10.0 44.2 54.2
1978 30.8 33.4 33.3 8.3 38.9 47.2
1980 29.0 28.4 28.6 9.5 32.8 42.3
1981 28.1 26.5 26.8 9.3 31.3 40.6
1984 23.1 21.2 21.6 9.3 25.7 35.0
1987 20.1 16.1 17.4 9.7 20.3 30.0
1990 16.8 14.3 15.1 9.4 17.8 27.2
1993 13.4 13.8 13.7 8.7 17.2 25.9
1996 9.7 12.3 11.3 7.2 15.3 22.5
1998 28.8 45.6 39.1 22.6 56.8 79.4
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics