NU can no longer rely solely on the masses

The leaders of the country's two largest Islamic organizations, Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), must work to prevent clashes between their supporters given the supercharged political atmosphere, says political observer Azyumardi Azra, who is also the rector of Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta State Islamic Institute.

Question: The Muhammadiyah organization has been increasingly vociferous in its support for Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri assuming the presidency, bringing it closer to confrontation with NU, which President Abdurrahman Wahid once chaired. How do you view this?

Answer: Muhammadiyah's stance is a result of an accumulation of the political problems that directly affect it. For example, the attacks on their property, mainly schools, in East Java and the refusal of the NU leadership to acknowledge that their members, at least partially, were responsible for the damage ....

NU and (its affiliate) the National Awakening Party (PKB) have recently been directing their anger at Muhammadiyah ... the latest incident brought on by a statement by (Muhammadiyah's) leaders about Megawati (never having supported Abdurrahman other than in her capacity as Vice President).

This is an important shift regarding Muhammadiyah, which historically has been apolitical ... having only declared its stance when forced to ... This could influence other parties to take firmer stances toward Gus Dur (Abdurrahman).

Muhammadiyah is influential because it is more widespread across the country than NU and affects the urban middle class, many of whom attended Muhammadiyah schools.

Q: Will NU respond seriously to this shift by Muhammadiyah?

A: That depends on its leaders. If NU remains stubborn, I fear a head-on collision among their respective followers. A meeting between the leaders is urgent to avoid open conflict. (Azyumardi has also urged independent respected figures such as Nurcholish Madjid to help arrange a meeting between the President and other leaders and politicians -- Ed.)

NU stands to lose more (if the conflict is not settled). In the past, NU could rely on allying itself with nationalists and socialists. But now it will be left alone if its leaders do not respond wisely (to Muhammadiyah).

The (nationalist) Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (which is chaired by Megawati) now leans more toward modernist Muslims than in the past.

Note the recent meeting of politicians at the office of the Indonesian Council of Propagation, which is known as a hard-line group, and the address given by (former Muhammadiyah chairman) Amien Rais at Al Azhar Mosque; both sites are symbols of modernist Islam.

Conflicts between NU and Muhammadiyah on the ritual details (of religion) are no longer a big issue; now it is more a conflict of power. As long as this is not resolved, the conflict will escalate.

Q: NU seems to be confident given its claimed following of 30 million people...

A: Now a large following is not the most important asset, more so given the increasing orientation toward doing things in a constitutional manner. Amien Rais has said people must be mentally prepared for a change in the presidency, but he also said this should be done according to the Constitution, apparently bowing to Megawati's stance. Deploying the masses now could be counterproductive.

Q: The conflict between NU and Muhammadiyah has taken a prominent place on the political Islam stage. How do you see the future direction of today's Muslim-oriented student activists?

A: Those in the formal campus bodies have a closer ideological affinity with modernist Islam ... These are neoconservatives who in 1998 formed the Indonesian Islamic Student Association (KAMMI).

They aim for a political system where Islamic political ethics are very important. They have shown they have the potential to contribute greatly to civil society. Their rallies are very orderly, which is a very good lesson in democracy.

Q: They seem to have played it safe in the past...

A: They were forced to because such groups were subject to repression under former president Soeharto.

In the spectrum (of Islamic groups), all uphold the principle of encouraging good and preventing evil, but they differ in their approaches.

NU can be said to be the most tolerant, practicing this principle only in its heart. Muhammadiyah does it through its "social actions" (such as education). Both groups are in the mainstream.

KAMMI, which is close to the Justice Party, goes further, entering the political sphere. Many party members are "yuppies", similar to the phenomenon of born-again Christians in the United States.

At the far end of this spectrum are groups like the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), Laskar Jihad, the new mujahidin groups, which take the strongest approach (to the principle of encouraging good and preventing evil).

Q: Could "radical" groups and neoconservatives play larger roles in the future?

A: They could if NU and Muhammadiyah cannot resolve their differences, thus providing a raison d'etre for these groups. The groups at the far right of the spectrum have emerged because of the inability of the government and the security forces to protect Muslims.

It has been reported that most of the victims (in the Maluku conflict) are Muslims, and Gus Dur simply says the conflicting parties should settle the conflict themselves.

The government is also viewed as having failed to do anything to curb the spread of vice. (anr)