NU can no longer rely solely on the masses

NU can no longer rely solely on the masses

The leaders of the country's two largest Islamic
organizations, Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), must work
to prevent clashes between their supporters given the
supercharged political atmosphere, says political observer
Azyumardi Azra, who is also the rector of Syarif Hidayatullah
Jakarta State Islamic Institute.

Question: The Muhammadiyah organization has been increasingly
vociferous in its support for Vice President Megawati
Soekarnoputri assuming the presidency, bringing it closer to
confrontation with NU, which President Abdurrahman Wahid once
chaired. How do you view this?

Answer: Muhammadiyah's stance is a result of an accumulation
of the political problems that directly affect it. For example,
the attacks on their property, mainly schools, in East Java and
the refusal of the NU leadership to acknowledge that their
members, at least partially, were responsible for the damage ....

NU and (its affiliate) the National Awakening Party (PKB) have
recently been directing their anger at Muhammadiyah ... the
latest incident brought on by a statement by (Muhammadiyah's)
leaders about Megawati (never having supported Abdurrahman other
than in her capacity as Vice President).

This is an important shift regarding Muhammadiyah, which
historically has been apolitical ... having only declared its
stance when forced to ... This could influence other parties to
take firmer stances toward Gus Dur (Abdurrahman).

Muhammadiyah is influential because it is more widespread
across the country than NU and affects the urban middle class,
many of whom attended Muhammadiyah schools.

Q: Will NU respond seriously to this shift by Muhammadiyah?

A: That depends on its leaders. If NU remains stubborn, I fear a
head-on collision among their respective followers. A meeting
between the leaders is urgent to avoid open conflict. (Azyumardi
has also urged independent respected figures such as Nurcholish
Madjid to help arrange a meeting between the President and other
leaders and politicians -- Ed.)

NU stands to lose more (if the conflict is not settled). In
the past, NU could rely on allying itself with nationalists and
socialists. But now it will be left alone if its leaders do not
respond wisely (to Muhammadiyah).

The (nationalist) Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(which is chaired by Megawati) now leans more toward modernist
Muslims than in the past.

Note the recent meeting of politicians at the office of the
Indonesian Council of Propagation, which is known as a hard-line
group, and the address given by (former Muhammadiyah chairman)
Amien Rais at Al Azhar Mosque; both sites are symbols of
modernist Islam.

Conflicts between NU and Muhammadiyah on the ritual details
(of religion) are no longer a big issue; now it is more a
conflict of power. As long as this is not resolved, the conflict
will escalate.

Q: NU seems to be confident given its claimed following of 30
million people...

A: Now a large following is not the most important asset, more so
given the increasing orientation toward doing things in a
constitutional manner. Amien Rais has said people must be
mentally prepared for a change in the presidency, but he also
said this should be done according to the Constitution,
apparently bowing to Megawati's stance. Deploying the masses now
could be counterproductive.

Q: The conflict between NU and Muhammadiyah has taken a prominent
place on the political Islam stage. How do you see the future
direction of today's Muslim-oriented student activists?

A: Those in the formal campus bodies have a closer ideological
affinity with modernist Islam ... These are neoconservatives who
in 1998 formed the Indonesian Islamic Student Association
(KAMMI).

They aim for a political system where Islamic political ethics
are very important. They have shown they have the potential to
contribute greatly to civil society. Their rallies are very
orderly, which is a very good lesson in democracy.

Q: They seem to have played it safe in the past...

A: They were forced to because such groups were subject to
repression under former president Soeharto.

In the spectrum (of Islamic groups), all uphold the principle
of encouraging good and preventing evil, but they differ in their
approaches.

NU can be said to be the most tolerant, practicing this
principle only in its heart. Muhammadiyah does it through its
"social actions" (such as education). Both groups are in the
mainstream.

KAMMI, which is close to the Justice Party, goes further,
entering the political sphere. Many party members are "yuppies",
similar to the phenomenon of born-again Christians in the United
States.

At the far end of this spectrum are groups like the Islamic
Defenders Front (FPI), Laskar Jihad, the new mujahidin groups,
which take the strongest approach (to the principle of
encouraging good and preventing evil).

Q: Could "radical" groups and neoconservatives play larger roles
in the future?

A: They could if NU and Muhammadiyah cannot resolve their
differences, thus providing a raison d'etre for these groups. The
groups at the far right of the spectrum have emerged because of
the inability of the government and the security forces to
protect Muslims.

It has been reported that most of the victims (in the Maluku
conflict) are Muslims, and Gus Dur simply says the conflicting
parties should settle the conflict themselves.

The government is also viewed as having failed to do anything
to curb the spread of vice. (anr)