No party will win a majority in elections

No party will win a majority in elections

By Hermawan Sulistyo

JAKARTA (JP): The presence of political parties is a
prerequisite for democracy. Together, with other forces,
political parties are an important component of civil society.
They serve as channels of popular will and interest. Their role
in strengthening democracy, however, differs from the past,
according to changes in the contemporary social and political
landscape.

Under the New Order regime, there were only "one-and-a-half"
parties. Golkar, the ruling party, dominated the political
landscape, while the United Development Party (PPP) and the
Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) served more as peripheral
supplements rather than functioning as real political parties.
Under the New Order, Golkar was legally not a political party. It
was a "functional group".

Now, during the transition period, there are over 100 budding
political parties, but only 48 of them have been sanctioned by
the government to contest the 1999 general election. Under this
multiparty system, what is the most likely pattern of support for
these parties?

This question is difficult to answer. It is quite difficult to
assess the strengths of the parties, for the last democratic
election was held in 1955. In that election, the political system
was multiparty, similar to the present system. Taking a look at
the characteristics of voters from the 1955 elections to the 1997
elections might provide an understanding of the tendencies of
voters in 1999.

In the 1955 elections, the youngest first-time voters would
have been born in 1938. In 1999, the oldest of this group would
now be 61. In terms of demographics, eligible voters who
experienced the 1955 general election would only be a small
portion of eligible voters in the 1999 elections. Their share is
probably less than 20 percent of eligible voters. This partly
explains why most eligible voters today are still learning about
the democratic process for the upcoming general election.

In 1955, voter affiliations were based on the so-called
politik aliran (current or flow of politics). Politik aliran is a
system where political affiliation is based on traditional ties,
particularly ethnicity and religion, more than ideology. The
ideological base overlapped with the traditional ties.

Moreover, politik aliran assumes that mass political groupings
and associations are clustered around similar groupings and
associations among the elite. Under such a scheme, the 1955
general election resulted in the four biggest parties -- the
Indonesian Nationalist Party (PNI), the traditional Islamic party
Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) and
the Indonesian Muslim Council (Masyumi) -- each garnering between
16 percent to 22 percent of the votes.

In the first elections during the New Order, which were held
in 1971, first-time voters were born in 1954. This same group is
now about 45 years old. Voters between the ages of 17 to 61
comprise the largest bulk of voters, probably over 80 percent of
voters in the elections. In the 1971 general election, when the
government had just adopted the floating mass policy and
consolidated its power by reducing the number of political
parties to 11, Golkar came out as the biggest party, followed by
the NU and PNI. Masyumi was banned at that time and PKI was
dissolved following their alleged involvement in the 1965
abortive coup.

Golkar, a new player in the electoral political landscape, won
62 percent of the vote, while NU and PNI received less than 15
percent. The 1971 elections show that in terms of the nature of
political affiliations, there was a reduced flavor of politik
aliran.

The New Order was a technocrat state and with the imposition
of its depoliticization scheme, voters had less traditional
political affiliations. The "real bases" of previous parties were
thus shifting; more artificial affiliations were now replacing
the older, traditional ones. And yet, under a repressive system,
competition in the elections was not based on comparative images
of a party's programs; the competition was based more on the
differences in "distance from the center of power" rather than
programs.

Apart from some newly founded political parties contesting the
1999 elections, some parties still base and rely on support from
the old politik aliran. In an a prior assessment, there is little
doubt that no party will come out with a clear majority in these
elections.

At least two apparent reasons support this assumption. First,
if a similar pattern as in the 1955 elections is applied to the
upcoming elections, then the pattern of affiliations will provide
room for the biggest party to win no more than 25 percent of the
vote. Second, if we are following the 1971 pattern of voting,
then the maximum vote Golkar will win is no higher than 62
percent. However, this is in fact a too optimistic expectation,
for the state was fully behind Golkar in the 1971 elections. In
either scheme, no party would come out with a clear majority.

Without competing, the "armed forces party" already has 38
nonelected seats in the House, or about 7 percent of the total
500. The free seats are considered a loss for the Indonesian
Military (TNI), since TNI was originally allotted 100 seats, a
number which was later reduced to 75. The 38 nonelected seats is
also considered a loss for prodemocracy activists because the
activists asked that no nonelected seats be allotted to
representatives from the military. The allotment of 38 seats is a
lose-lose solution for the two political forces.

If a parallel assessment is taken from the 1955 and 1971
pattern of votes, one may expect that PDI Perjuangan, PKB, PAN,
Golkar and PPP would receive between 15 percent to 25 percent of
the votes each. It should be noted, however, that it is
absolutely impossible for these parties to share the 100 percent
votes evenly. This is not to mention the fact that each party has
set a high target for itself. Golkar, for instance, is expecting
40 percent to 50 percent of the vote, while PDI Perjuangan, PKB
and PAN are convinced they will each gain over 40 percent of the
vote. Competing for the same constituency are PBB and PAN -- not
to mention the other two Masyumi parties.

Following the logic of politik aliran, the conclusion is that
no party will earn a majority of the vote in the upcoming
elections. Adding to this situation is, again, the structure of
voter demographics. Most eligible voters in the 1999 elections
have no experience in general election, other than elections held
under the New Order regime. This means that they have fewer
politik aliran affiliations than older voters -- those 61 years
of age and above. The main characteristic of such voter
demographics is fluidity. They easily shift their political
support from one party to another -- a logical situation that
results from the long-time floating mass policy.

The floating mass policy also had an impact on the
geographical distribution of support. There are not many areas
that have retained their previous political groupings. The
"Habibie factor", for example, is a decisive element for Golkar
to obtain support from the eastern parts of Indonesia,
particularly Sulawesi. Observers who have predicted that some
parties will garner over 30 percent of the vote, therefore,
should be prepared to be disappointed. The results of numerous
public polls cannot be seen as a strong indicator because of the
fluid characteristic of voters.

Dr. Hermawan Sulistyo is the executive director of the
Research Institute for Democracy and Peace in Jakarta.