No party will win a majority in elections

By Hermawan Sulistyo

JAKARTA (JP): The presence of political parties is a prerequisite for democracy. Together, with other forces, political parties are an important component of civil society. They serve as channels of popular will and interest. Their role in strengthening democracy, however, differs from the past, according to changes in the contemporary social and political landscape.

Under the New Order regime, there were only "one-and-a-half" parties. Golkar, the ruling party, dominated the political landscape, while the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) served more as peripheral supplements rather than functioning as real political parties. Under the New Order, Golkar was legally not a political party. It was a "functional group".

Now, during the transition period, there are over 100 budding political parties, but only 48 of them have been sanctioned by the government to contest the 1999 general election. Under this multiparty system, what is the most likely pattern of support for these parties?

This question is difficult to answer. It is quite difficult to assess the strengths of the parties, for the last democratic election was held in 1955. In that election, the political system was multiparty, similar to the present system. Taking a look at the characteristics of voters from the 1955 elections to the 1997 elections might provide an understanding of the tendencies of voters in 1999.

In the 1955 elections, the youngest first-time voters would have been born in 1938. In 1999, the oldest of this group would now be 61. In terms of demographics, eligible voters who experienced the 1955 general election would only be a small portion of eligible voters in the 1999 elections. Their share is probably less than 20 percent of eligible voters. This partly explains why most eligible voters today are still learning about the democratic process for the upcoming general election.

In 1955, voter affiliations were based on the so-called politik aliran (current or flow of politics). Politik aliran is a system where political affiliation is based on traditional ties, particularly ethnicity and religion, more than ideology. The ideological base overlapped with the traditional ties.

Moreover, politik aliran assumes that mass political groupings and associations are clustered around similar groupings and associations among the elite. Under such a scheme, the 1955 general election resulted in the four biggest parties -- the Indonesian Nationalist Party (PNI), the traditional Islamic party Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) and the Indonesian Muslim Council (Masyumi) -- each garnering between 16 percent to 22 percent of the votes.

In the first elections during the New Order, which were held in 1971, first-time voters were born in 1954. This same group is now about 45 years old. Voters between the ages of 17 to 61 comprise the largest bulk of voters, probably over 80 percent of voters in the elections. In the 1971 general election, when the government had just adopted the floating mass policy and consolidated its power by reducing the number of political parties to 11, Golkar came out as the biggest party, followed by the NU and PNI. Masyumi was banned at that time and PKI was dissolved following their alleged involvement in the 1965 abortive coup.

Golkar, a new player in the electoral political landscape, won 62 percent of the vote, while NU and PNI received less than 15 percent. The 1971 elections show that in terms of the nature of political affiliations, there was a reduced flavor of politik aliran.

The New Order was a technocrat state and with the imposition of its depoliticization scheme, voters had less traditional political affiliations. The "real bases" of previous parties were thus shifting; more artificial affiliations were now replacing the older, traditional ones. And yet, under a repressive system, competition in the elections was not based on comparative images of a party's programs; the competition was based more on the differences in "distance from the center of power" rather than programs.

Apart from some newly founded political parties contesting the 1999 elections, some parties still base and rely on support from the old politik aliran. In an a prior assessment, there is little doubt that no party will come out with a clear majority in these elections.

At least two apparent reasons support this assumption. First, if a similar pattern as in the 1955 elections is applied to the upcoming elections, then the pattern of affiliations will provide room for the biggest party to win no more than 25 percent of the vote. Second, if we are following the 1971 pattern of voting, then the maximum vote Golkar will win is no higher than 62 percent. However, this is in fact a too optimistic expectation, for the state was fully behind Golkar in the 1971 elections. In either scheme, no party would come out with a clear majority.

Without competing, the "armed forces party" already has 38 nonelected seats in the House, or about 7 percent of the total 500. The free seats are considered a loss for the Indonesian Military (TNI), since TNI was originally allotted 100 seats, a number which was later reduced to 75. The 38 nonelected seats is also considered a loss for prodemocracy activists because the activists asked that no nonelected seats be allotted to representatives from the military. The allotment of 38 seats is a lose-lose solution for the two political forces.

If a parallel assessment is taken from the 1955 and 1971 pattern of votes, one may expect that PDI Perjuangan, PKB, PAN, Golkar and PPP would receive between 15 percent to 25 percent of the votes each. It should be noted, however, that it is absolutely impossible for these parties to share the 100 percent votes evenly. This is not to mention the fact that each party has set a high target for itself. Golkar, for instance, is expecting 40 percent to 50 percent of the vote, while PDI Perjuangan, PKB and PAN are convinced they will each gain over 40 percent of the vote. Competing for the same constituency are PBB and PAN -- not to mention the other two Masyumi parties.

Following the logic of politik aliran, the conclusion is that no party will earn a majority of the vote in the upcoming elections. Adding to this situation is, again, the structure of voter demographics. Most eligible voters in the 1999 elections have no experience in general election, other than elections held under the New Order regime. This means that they have fewer politik aliran affiliations than older voters -- those 61 years of age and above. The main characteristic of such voter demographics is fluidity. They easily shift their political support from one party to another -- a logical situation that results from the long-time floating mass policy.

The floating mass policy also had an impact on the geographical distribution of support. There are not many areas that have retained their previous political groupings. The "Habibie factor", for example, is a decisive element for Golkar to obtain support from the eastern parts of Indonesia, particularly Sulawesi. Observers who have predicted that some parties will garner over 30 percent of the vote, therefore, should be prepared to be disappointed. The results of numerous public polls cannot be seen as a strong indicator because of the fluid characteristic of voters.

Dr. Hermawan Sulistyo is the executive director of the Research Institute for Democracy and Peace in Jakarta.