No mere empty threat

As was widely predicted, President Abdurrahman Wahid on Friday backed down on his threat to declare a state of emergency, something that he has been boasting to the public for the past week or so. As zany as the threat may have seemed, however, it would have been wrong for anyone to take it lightly.

The President does have the power to impose a state of emergency, and he had signaled on several occasions before Friday that he would use, or rather abuse, this constitutional prerogative as part of his campaign to cling to power.

The only things that stood in his way were the National Police and the Military, and some senior members of his Cabinet. By all calculations, without the support of any one of these three elements, it would have been impossible for the President to impose a state of emergency, whether civil or military.

The President needs the National Police or the Indonesian Military to implement the draconian measures that will be at his disposal the moment he imposes a state of emergency. They include arresting his political foes, imposing a news blackout, and dissolving the House of Representatives and the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

The President may be able to ignore Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, whose Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) is at the forefront of the campaign to remove him. But he could hardly expect to go ahead with a state of emergency plan without the full support of his top Cabinet officials, including in particular chief political minister Agum Gumelar.

If this had been a poker game, it was Agum, the police and the military who had called the President's bluff. His political rivals in the People's Consultative Assembly had made contingency plans to bring forward the special session to initiate his impeachment process if he had made good on his threat.

As long as things remain as they are, we can discount the President's latest threat to impose a state of emergency, now slated for July 31, or one day before the special session is due to start. That is, unless the President is so desperate that he goes ahead with his plan without even the basic support.

There is no doubt that the lack of political support was the crucial factor that forced the President to back down on his threat. The search for a compromise, as desirable as it may seem, is now a remote possibility. His argument to postpone the state of emergency to July 31 was simply a pretext that he used in order to buy more time for himself, hoping that by then he would have the bare minimum support needed to carry out his plan.

There is also no doubt that his decision to hastily install Comr. Gen. Chaeruddin Ismail as the caretaker chief of the National Police on Friday was part and parcel of his political survival game plan. He needs to take control of the National Police but had thus far been denied by the present defiant chief, Gen. Surojo Bimantoro, who has refused to stand down.

In his act of desperation, the President installed Chaeruddin without the consent of the House of Representatives, which by law, is a prerequisite. This unconstitutional move has only made the case for his impeachment at the MPR that much stronger, and possibly even that much sooner.

It remains to be seen how far Chaeruddin is prepared to go along with the President's game plan. We certainly hope that he will be strong enough to resist the President from turning the police force into his personal tool of repression.

Without the support of the police, the military and senior Cabinet members, the threat of a state of emergency has proven to be a blunt weapon of intimidation. But as empty as the President's threats may have been, they have not been without costs to the country. This turn of events has further unsettled the nation already deeply mired in crisis.

It is also clear now that the President is quickly running out of time and options in staving off the threat of an MPR impeachment. With a political compromise now a remote possibility, there are virtually two choices left for the President: Make a graceful exit now or fight off an impeachment process in the MPR that he is almost certain to lose.

As the rest of the nation waits for this political drama to unfold in the coming days, the top Cabinet members of the President who had opposed his state of emergency plan should start thinking about distancing themselves from their chief executive. Who knows, they could help him see the light and come to the right decision that is best for himself and for the nation.